来源：亚洲外汇网

作者：Rosenstreich

今日汇评

昨天的主要事件是美国联邦公开市场委员会宣布利率决定，决策者宣称维持低利率不变，符合市场预期。除了这个风险事件外，市场更关注该委员会的政策声明，欲通过其声明来了解美联储官员是如何将有所改善的美国经济数据纳入其政治决策中，以及这种低迷的流动性经济环境还将持续多久的问题。

事实确实如此，此次的联储声明几乎只是对上个月释放的声明进行一次剪贴和粘贴，包括其中对利率做出描述的关键句子，如：利率将保持“极低水平” “至更长一段时间”，该关键短语刺激近期资产反弹。欧元兑美元反弹至1.4850，而在联储声明发布之前，该货币对略高于1.4900，但之后因市场已经消化了声明中后续章节的部分内容，欧元兑美元的价格行动就在1.4825至1.4910的区间内震荡。但此次的联储声明也插入了一些新的措辞，如美国经济有所改善增长本身并不能保证利率的上升，在声明中美联储还首次提到是否加息将取决于“低利率的利用率”，以及通货膨胀的趋势及前景预期。这有可能使得周五的非农就业数据对投资者而言显得非常重要（如果市场还没准备好的话）。该委员会还宣布，将机构债券购买规模从2000亿美元削减至1750亿美元，但澄清这样做的部分原因是“机构债券的供给有限”。

美国联邦公开市场委员会的这次会议的结果普遍利好风险资产，之后欧元兑美元大幅上扬，股市和黄金也因此大幅走高，大宗商品价格随后温和上涨。黄金在昨天的晚盘中创出1097.80美元每盎司的新高价位，之后获利回吐，在今天的早盘中下滑走低至1084.80美元每盎司。与此同时，亚洲股市混合开放，欧洲期货市场指向温和低开。

今天的主要活动当然是英国央行会议和欧洲央行会议。对于英国央行会议的主要焦点将是货币政策对近期英国数据会做出何种反应；低迷的第三季度国内生产总值数据在很大程度上确保了扩大量化宽松政策的必要性，但市场现在关注的是这个扩大规模到底是250亿英镑还是500亿英镑。我们认为，英国货币政策委员会很可能将增长250亿英镑，宽松政策总规模达2000亿英镑，而选择在以后的央行会议上重新评估是否需要继续扩大规模也显得必要。然而，一些经济学家则预计委员会可能会增加500亿英镑（总规模达2250亿英镑），因此英镑兑美元是大幅下跌还是上扬就取决于英国央行具体采取哪种扩大规模方案了。

欧洲央行即将公布利率决定，预期结果是维持利率不变，但市场对欧洲央行官员就货币以及欧元兑美元强势的相关评论将异常敏感。欧洲央行行长特里谢的新闻发布会也将会提及这些问题，特别是在公开讲话结束后的记者提问环节中。今日的外汇市场还将关注瑞士10月消费物价指数，市场一致预期该指数年比下滑0.7%。瑞士央行理事乔丹表示，通货膨胀因素是央行是否退出当前宽松政策的决定新因素。因瑞士央行预计通货膨胀继续维持较低水平，因此央行将继续其外汇干预政策。

Market Brief

Yesterday’s key event was the US FOMC meeting where policymakers kept rates on hold as expected. The headline aside, markets were more keenly awaiting the accompanying statement for an insight into how Fed officials have incorporated recently improved US data into their policy view, and whether this environment of cheap liquidity would continue going forward.

True to form, the statement was largely a cut-and-paste job of last month’s release, and included the key sentence that rates would remain “exceptionally low” for an “extended period”, a crucial phrase that has underpinned the recent asset rally. EURUSD rallied from around 1.4850 before the release to just above 1.4900, but price action after that was very choppy between 1.4825-1.4910 as markets digested the wording of some of the later sections of the statement. A new insert to the wording was that improved growth alone did not warrant higher rates, and mentioned for first time that this would depend on the evolution of “low rates of resource utilization”, subdued inflation trends and inflation expectations from here. This is likely to make Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls a critical event for investors (if it wasn’t already). The committee also announced that the agency debt buying program would be cut back to $175bn from $200bn, but clarified that this reflected the “limited availability of agency debt”.

The results of the meeting should be broadly positive for risk assets, but after a big rally from EURUSD, equities and gold in the run-up to the event, prices have moderated slightly in the aftermath. Gold tipped to a new all-time high at 1097.80 in the evening before profit-taking set in and we have dealt down to a low of $1084.80 this morning. Meanwhile Asian equities have been mixed to lower, and European futures are pointing to a mildly lower open.

Today’s main events will of course be the BoE and ECB meetings. The main focus for the BoE meeting will be the MPC’s response to recent UK data; it is largely guaranteed by the dismal Q3 GDP that an extension to the QE program will be deemed necessary, but market estimates have drifted between whether this will be GBP25bn or GBP50bn. We feel that the MPC will likely increase the plan by 25bn to a total of 200bn, and choose to re-assess at subsequent meetings whether more is necessary. However a significant number of economist estimates now look for a 50bn increase (to 225bn total), so there is scope for GBPUSD to either sell-off or rally depending on which of the two scenarios plays out.

The ECB meeting is expected to produce another unchanged rate decision, but the markets will be sensitive to any official references to currencies and EURUSD strength. Trichet’s press conference will be keenly eyed for mentions of this, especially in the Q&A session after the statement. Also today Swiss CPI will be released and consensus is looking for -0.7% y/y. The SNB's Jordan said inflation would be the main determinant for the SNB's exit from current policies. With inflation expected to remain in negative territory, the SNB will likely continue its FX intervention policy.