来源：环球外汇网

隔夜，大宗商品价格继续强势表现，提振商品类股上扬并进一步引发大多数亚洲指数走高。黄金报价1128美元每盎司，表明2010年已经实现2.8%的涨幅，原油价格仍略低于82美元每桶。国际货币基金组织副主席利普斯基预计2010年全球经济增长将恢复到3.1%，该积极评论提振市场风险情绪，与此同时，波罗的海干货指数，长期以来我们都将该指数作为全球需求的指标，在本年度，波罗的海干货指数昨日首次实现上涨 – 攀升至4.5％左右。外汇市场对该指数的反应是美元抛售情况加重，欧元兑美元回升至1.4460的技术水平，美元兑日元目前下跌至91.75。美元指数的14天相对强弱指数已经从12月22日的超买水平72.1回落至（其中70以上的水平被认为是超买水平）目前的中性水平52.5。

展望今天的财经日历，预期挪威采购经理人指数将小幅上扬，从上个月的48.5上扬至49.5，但是挪威克朗的表现更易收到大宗商品价格的影响。欧元兑挪威克朗昨日跌破8.2500的重要支撑位 (因大宗商品价格的上扬趋势所致) ，该跌破表现表明该货币或将进一步下滑，而下一个支撑位将位于8.1400。再将关注的焦点从欧洲地区移开，来看看其他地区的财经事件，上天上午有德国12月失业率数据，预期将保持在8.1%的水平上不变，而市场更加关注欧元区12月采购经理人指数，预期将同比增长0.9%，前值为0.6%。尽管这些数据远低于能给欧洲央行带来宽慰的数据水平，但现在看来，至少不会面临通货紧缩威胁。

在今天下午的市场里即将公布的美国指数有：美国11月工厂订单数，美国11月未决房屋销售数据，预期这些数据的影响将不及周三的联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要以及周五的非农就业数据。

Commodity prices continued their strong performances overnight, helping commodity producer stocks lead most Asian indices higher. Gold is on the highs around $1128, representing a gain of 2.8% in 2010 already, and crude oil remains elevated just below $82 a barrel. Sentiment has been buoyed by comments from the IMF’s John Lipsky that the organization would be revising higher its forecasts for global economic growth from 3.1%, and concurrently, the Baltic Dry Index, which we have long used as an indicator for global demand, rose for the first time in over a month yesterday – jumping around 4.5%. The reaction in FX markets has been one of widespread USD-selling; with EURUSD back above the 1.4460 technical level, and USDJPY now trading down at 91.75. The 14-day RSI on the dollar index (DXY) has now pared all the way back from its overbought levels on 22 Dec at 72.1 (where levels above 70 are considered overbought) down to neutral current levels of 52.5.

Looking ahead to today’s calendar we have Norwegian PMI which is expected to show a small uptick to 49.5 from last month’s 48.5; but it is likely that NOK will be more acutely influenced by the broader strength of commodity prices throughout the day. EURNOK’s plunge down through 8.2500 major support yesterday (led by the rally in commodities) suggests further downside is possible to 8.1400 next support. Out of the Eurozone, this morning’s German Unemployment reading is expected to remain stable at 8.1%, but the main focus will be on Eurozone CPI for December; which is expected to show a 0.9% YoY increase after November’s 0.6% print. Although, these figures are still well below the comfort zone of the ECB, the threat of deflation now seems unlikely.

In the afternoon session, US data includes Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales, but these are likely to be overshadowed by Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls.