来源：环球外汇网

新年开盘之际，美元走高（美元指数为78.08）；中国12月采购经理人指数增长至56.1（前值是55.7），利好消息刺激亚洲股市走强。在各项基准指数当中，走势最好的是日经指数，这主要归因于日本政府选择将日航的信贷额度提高了一倍，致使日航股价领涨，之后刺激日经指数大幅上涨1%。日本政府现已大幅扩大日航的贷款，额度增加至2000亿日元，以此避免陷入困境的日航如上周的预期般进入破产。美元兑日元目前仍徘徊于93.00左右，但下一个重要阻力位将是93.60，这也是200日移动平均线上的重要阻力位。鉴于美元兑日元自11月27日当天创下84.83的低点以来，该货币对一直保持连续反弹模式，我们预期该货币对或将在第一次测试93.60水平处获得修正。

天气寒流支撑油价回到80美元每桶左右的水平，其他大多数大宗商品货币也紧随上涨趋势。至撰写本汇评时，黄金价格已反弹至1102美元每盎司的水平，白银价格也稳定在16.85美元每盎司左右。其他大多数货币对基本都是窄幅波动（截至目前，欧元兑美元在1.4258-1.4337的区间内交投），而今日的财经日历排在前面的都是欧洲区域的采购经理人指数。到目前为止，瑞典银行12月采购经理人指数为58.2 ，好于预期的55.8，在余下的交易时段内，还有其他欧元区国家的12月采购经理人指数即将公布，瑞士（预期值为56.9，前值为56.9），德国（预期值为53.1，前值为53.1），以及欧元区（预期值为51.6，前值为51.2）。今天下午即将公布的美国数据有：12月份ISM制造业指数，预期将环比上扬（预期值为54.0，前值为53.6），我们还预期美国经济增长的积极迹象将全面提振美元兑其他货币走强。美国11月建筑支出数据也于今天下午公布，最近几个月该值一直在大幅波动，但此次市场一致预期该值将环比下滑 0.5%，前值为 0.0%。

The USD has started the new year higher (DXY 78.08) and Asian equities are in positive territory after China’s PMI data climbed to 56.1 in December (from 55.7 the month prior). The outperformer amongst the benchmark indices is the Nikkei, up over 1% on the day led by JAL shares after the Japanese government opted to double the credit available to the troubled airline. The state backed Development Bank of Japan has now extended its loans to Japan Airlines to Y200bn, in a bid to avert the carrier filing for bankruptcy as was speculated last week. USDJPY is still hovering around 93.00 levels, but the next major resistance will be at 93.60 where the 200 day moving average now comes in; given the relatively uninterrupted rally we have seen from the 27th November lows at 84.83, it is possible we get some correction on a first test of 93.60.

The cold snap of weather has buoyed oil prices back around the $80 level and most other commodities are following the move higher. Gold has recovered above $1102 levels at the time of writing, and silver has also stabilized around $16.85. The majority of other currency pairs are trading in ranges (EURUSD 1.4258-1.4337 so far today), while the data calendar ahead is predominantly filled with PMI releases across Europe. So far, the Swedbank PMI Survey beat expectations with a 58.2 print against forecasts for 55.8, and in the rest of the session we can expect further PMI numbers from Switzerland (exp: 56.9, prev: 56.9), Germany (exp: 53.1, prev 53.1), and the Eurozone (exp: 51.6, prev: 51.2). This afternoon’s US data includes ISM Manufacturing which is also expected to improve slightly from November’s figures (exp: 54.0, prev: 53.6), and we expect any positive signs of growth in the US to be broadly USD-positive against the major currencies. The US Construction Spending data also due this afternoon has been far more volatile in recent months, but consensus is looking for at -0.5% MoM change after last month’s 0.0% number.