来源：环球外汇网

隔夜，亚洲股市好坏参半，上证综指上扬1.5%，但日经指数下跌了1.0%——这主要归因于投资者担心日本航空公司或将申请破产清算。昨日日本航空股份收盘报价每股67日元（创该股份交易以来的最低水平），截至目前，该股价的跌幅达25%。鉴于日本航空公司自2001年以来已经接受过4次日本政府的支援，市场情绪异常疲弱。尽管今日市场风险情绪受到极大挑战，但美元自昨日欧洲市场收盘以来一直没有多大变化，欧元兑美元现报1.4340，美元兑瑞郎现报1.0380。

昨日市场的主要财经数据有美国12月消费者信心指数，尽管与本月的预期值相比，略有出入（实际值为52.9，预期值为53.0 ），但与前值相比略有改善（11月消费者信心指数为50.6，10月消费者信心指数为49.5）。该消息成为美元在当天走势的转折点，美元在伦敦开盘不久遭遇抛售压力，之后又迅速收复这些损失。欧元兑美元跌破1.4445，现报1.4340 ，黄金价格回落至1100 美元每盎司——在早盘中，跌幅有所扩大，跌至1090.95美元每盎司的低点，之后又反弹温和回升至 1096美元每盎司。

接下来关注一下欧洲市场即将公布的主要数据：欧元区11月M3货币供应量和瑞士12月KOF领先指标。后者则有可能大幅影响外汇市场，市场预期将从前值1.62上扬至1.73。欧元兑瑞郎现报价低于1.4900，市场还沉浸在假期情绪中，流动性极低，因此市场认为一旦KOF领先指标意外上扬，瑞郎必将受到提振而上扬，而瑞士央行或将因此而干预外汇市场。今天下午，美国方面的经济数据较少，只有美国12月芝加哥采购经理人指数。我们预期月末流动性将主导本周余下时间的汇市走势。

Asian stock markets have been mixed overnight with the Shanghai Composite up over 1.5% on the day, but the Nikkei nearly a percent lower – weighed down primarily by speculation that Japan Airlines may have to file for bankruptcy. Shares in the troubled airline are down over 25% from yesterdays close to 67 yen (the lowest levels since the shares began trading) and sentiment is particularly weak given that the carrier has already accepted 4 bailouts from the Japanese government since 2001. Despite the knock to risk sentiment, the USD has been largely unchanged from the end of the European session yesterday, with EURUSD at 1.4340 and USDCHF at 1.0380.

The main data from yesterday’s session was US Consumer Confidence which was better than expected on balance; despite a slight miss compared to this month’s consensus estimate (52.9 vs. 53.0 expected), there was a much larger revision higher to the month prior (to 50.6 from 49.5). This news marked the turning point in the day for the USD which had come under some selling pressure early at the London open, but quickly pared these losses after the release. EURUSD sold off from 1.4445 levels down over a big figure to current 1.4340 levels, and gold also tumbled back below $1100 levels – a move which has extended this morning to lows of $1090.95 before recovering modestly to $1096.

In the session ahead the main European data will be the Eurozone M3 data and Swiss KOF Leading Indicator. The latter is likely to have the greatest chance of moving the market, with analysts looking for an uptick to 1.73 from last month’s 1.62. With EURCHF below 1.4900 levels and trading in holiday liquidity, it will be interesting to see if an upside surprise in the data can strengthen CHF to levels where SNB feels the need to step in. The afternoon will be quiet on the economic docket, with only the US Chicago Purchasing Managers Index due; and we expect month-end flows to dominate FX moves through to the end of the week.