来源：环球外汇网
隔夜，窄幅波动的趋势较为盛行，欧元兑美元在1.4354-1.4419的区间内交投，美元兑日元在91.61-91.78 的区间内交投。美联储隔夜提议设立一项定期存款工具（旨在帮助央行回笼流动性），美元对此反应冷淡。但美联储随后在其附加声明中表示：“该建议对近期货币决策没有影响”, 并且在节日假期里，由于市场参与有限，美元对此也只是窄幅震荡了一下。
今日亚洲股市普遍走高，但日经指数拖累了日本央行股票的走势，只因为市场对日本央行进一步筹资抱有投机性。除了铜价在大幅上涨外——得益于智利铜矿罢工的消息——相比之下，市场上的其他消息较为清淡，因为这是本年度最后的一周。
今天上午的数据包括德国12月份区域性和国家性的消费物价指数，市场预期德国12月消费者物价指数月比和年比均大幅上扬0.7％（月比前值是下滑0.2％，年比前值是上扬0.3％）。其他欧洲待审数据主要有11月瑞典零售销售额数据，预期将继续保持强劲增长（预期：环比增长0.6％，同比增长4.4％）；欧元兑瑞典克朗的主要支撑位为10.3500（目前报价10.3770），如果零售销售额意外上扬，该货币对有望跌破该支撑位进一步下滑。今天公布的美国数据包括CaseShiller房价指数和美国消费者信心，但我们怀疑这些数据从根本上不能改变美元的前景，并期望市场在很大程度上是还是受这薄弱的流动性的控制。
Tight trading ranges prevailed in the majors overnight with EURUSD’s range 1.4354-1.4419, and USDJPY locked in an even narrower 91.61-91.78 channel. The USD has not shown much reaction to last night’s Fed proposal to set up a term deposit facility (designed to drain excess reserves); the accompanying statement was cautiously worded to underline that the plan had “no implications for monetary policy decisions in the near term”, and with limited market participation during the holiday season we see little scope for a USD-trend to emerge from this news.
Asian equity indices are mostly higher on the day, but the Nikkei has lagged somewhat as Japanese bank stocks traded lower on speculation of further capital raising. Besides the excitement in copper markets – where prices are still elevated on news of strike action in Chile’s mines – the news flow remains light as we complete the final week of 2009.
Today’s morning data includes German regional and national CPI figures for Dec where the EU harmonized figures are expected to tick sharply higher to 0.7% MoM, 0.7% YoY (previous month -0.2% MoM, 0.3% YoY). The other major item on the European docket will be Swedish Retail Sales for Nov which is forecast to continue its strong gains (expected: 0.6% MoM, 4.4% YoY); with EURSEK poised above major support at 10.3500 (currently 10.3770), a significant upside surprise could open up further downside for EURSEK through this level. Today’s US data includes the CaseShiller Home Price Index and US Consumer Confidence, but we doubt much fundamental change to the USD outlook, and expect markets to be largely flow-driven in this thin liquidity.
