来源：环球外汇网
昨日，美国芝加哥联储主席埃文斯发表了他个人对联邦公开是市场委员会会议纪要中的 “较长时间”术语的理解——他的理解明显比市场预期的要温和许多。他的理解言论释放后，美元在美国市场享受了尾盘上扬。“较长时间”，指的是美国“极低利率”持续时间长短的概念，现在已经成为结构性美元疲软的核心因素，但是市场已经基本上认为“延长期”指的是2010年大半年时间，而芝加哥联储主席埃文斯指出：对他来讲，美联储可能在“未来三至四次会议”后才可能考虑加息。他还重申2010年的失业率可能会更高，与此同时通货膨胀应能继续维持较低水平。隔夜，欧元兑美元虽然惨遭抛售压力，但极力守住1.4260 上方水平（使得该货币对今天上午能反弹至1.4320上方），但黄金价格且下滑至1100美元每盎司以下水平，美元兑日元也突破了其上行主要技术水平，涨至91.00。目前，大多数货币对的技术性图表都表明美元在进一步上扬，尽管假期中的流动性并不完整，对扩大化的价格行动和非完整流动环境中的技术位突破我们仍然持谨慎态度。
备受市场关注的主权债务新问题使得风险偏好情绪在本周得以稳定化，这意味着欧洲市场和美国市场的股票指数纷纷强劲上扬态势，而亚洲股指今天早上也能全面走高。隔夜，欧洲央行管理委员会委员Orphanides发表公开讲话，预期希腊将会采取必要的行动，欧元区守约的惯例或将被打破的担忧是“毫无根据的”。
今日，来自美国方面的主要经济数据有：美国第三季度国内生产总值终值，预期年比增幅依然为2.8%，但也有部分外部投资者认为年比增幅将向下修正，修正为2.7%。与之相反，我们则认为英国第三季度国内生产总值终值将季比下滑0.1%，前值是季比下滑0.3%。事实上，英国仍然是20国集团中唯一仍未摆脱经济衰退的国家，因此而严重拖累英镑；很显然，如果该数据能意外上扬，必将大力提振英镑走高。然而，由于市场已经消化了大幅上调所带来的影响，我们认为该值意外上扬的空间不大，甚至对美元也不会产生大的影响；而如果该数据不能实现改善，则欧元兑美元将很可能面临抛售压力。
我们也期待今天举行的欧佩克会议，预期不会出现什么新的成果，但油价的疯狂上涨表明此次会议的召开是势在必行，这些高价格对大多数经济体的通胀前景将产生的重大影响，对此我们将持续持谨慎态度。
The USD enjoyed a late rally in yesterday’s US session, after Chicago Fed President Evans revealed his interpretation of the “extended period” term used in recent FOMC minutes – and it was a markedly less dovish interpretation than the market had assumed. The phrase, which refers to the duration of the “exceptionally low” rate environment in the US, has become a central tenet of structural USD weakness; but while the market has largely adopted the view that the “extended period” refers to most of 2010, he stated: “to me that seems like about three to four meetings”. He did however reiterate that unemployment could be higher next year and that inflation should continue to be subdued. EURUSD managed to survive the sell-off to hold above 1.4260 overnight (allowing it to recover above 1.4320this morning), but gold has slumped below $1100 levels, and USDJPY punched through its major technical level on the topside at 91.00. The technical picture for most currency pairs is now tilting to favour further USD-strength, and with the patchy liquidity over the holidays we remain vigilant of exaggerated moves and break-outs in patchy liquidity.
The absence of new sovereign debt concerns has allowed risk appetite to stabilize this week, meaning equity indices across Europe and the US maintained their strong gains into the close, and Asian indices this morning are broadly higher as well. Sentiment was also propped up slightly by headlines overnight that the ECB’s Orphanides expects the Greek government to take necessary action, and that fears of a Eurozone break up were “unfounded”.
The main data release from the US today will be the third estimate of Q3 GDP which is expected to remain at 2.8% annualized QoQ; however there are some outside bets for a further revision lower to 2.7%. In contrast, we will also get the third and final reading of UK GDP, where analysts are looking for an upward revision from -0.3% QoQ to -0.1% QoQ. The fact that the UK remains the only G20 nation yet to emerge from recession has weighed heavily on the GBP; obviously, an upward surprise in this figure would be a significant GBP-positive. Nevertheless, with a large upward revision already priced in, we feel there is little scope for a positive surprise, and indeed the newfound appeal of the USD means that GBPUSD will probably sell-off if the improvements in the data are not realized.
We also look towards the OPEC meeting scheduled today; there are not anticipated to be any changes to output targets, but oil has rallied strongly in the days leading up to this meeting, and we remain wary that these prices have a significant bearing on the inflation outlook for most economies.
