来源：环球外汇网

今日，大部分亚洲股指都有所走高，这主要归因于中国释放高于预期的11月工业生产总值和消费者物价指数。中国的利好数据刺激风险情绪上扬，但对美元的影响甚微，欧元兑美元以及黄金的价格行动仍表现为区间震荡模式。今日唯一一个价格行动变化较大的货币是日元，美元兑日元走低至89.00——回吐了最近因风险规避情绪而产生的部分收益。日元的价格行动主要是受其疲弱的消费者信心指数的推动，日本11月消费者信心指数实际值为39.9，低于预期的40.7；该数据表明日本经济正在艰难困境中谋求复苏。

昨日，自新西兰央行释放本次的货币政策之后，纽元兑美元意外走强（当天上扬1.4%）。隔夜央行行长波兰德还就市场的过度反应发表了公开讲话，他表示，“我认为市场的反应超过我的预期，市场，特别是外汇市场对央行此次的货币政策的反应有点过度”。但是，市场今日还是保住了昨日的领地，目标报价0.7270水平左右。

昨天的主要事件是瑞士央行会议和英国央行会议。首先登场的瑞士央行，不出市场所料，央行宣布继续维持当前的利率水平，以及其货币升值干预政策。此外，央行还宣布停止购买企业债券的决定。但央行目前还没有宣布已经收购的企业债券将何时重返市场的计划；相反，这些债券将继续停留在资产负债表上至“更长一段时间”。瑞士央行理事乔丹称，央行迄今的干预措施均是成功的，自实施外汇干预政策以来，央行已投入了约400亿瑞郎的资金，导致外汇储备的持续累积。乔丹表示，欧元兑瑞士法郎仍然是外汇干预的重点，但对美元及其他货币的购买也将继续。其次是英国央行，央行宣布继续维持0.5%的基准利率和2000亿英镑的资产收购规模不变，与市场预期基本一致。央行在声明中还表示，资产收购计划还需两个月才能完成，且该计划的规模将持续于观察之中。预期英国的货币政策委员会在明年2月的通货膨胀报告释放之前很可能不再是影响外汇的风险事件。

今天上午的财经日历安排较为清淡，在欧洲市场，只有英国11月生产者物价指数释放。预期11月生产者物价输入值继续高于输出值，在大多数情况下，我们预计英镑兑美元继续其标志性的1.6200-1.6350区间交易模式，因为最近的预算准备报告和昨日的央行报告都没能刺激该货币对突破现有交投区间。今天下午市场将重点关注美国11月零售销售数据，美国12月密歇根大学消费者信心指数，以及美国10月的商业库存数据——但鉴于市场在过去几天里对美元的价格行动影响较小，我们相信这三个数据对大多数货币对的影响仍旧有限。

Most Asian indices are higher today on China’s better than forecast Industrial Production and CPI figures for November; but the uptick in market sentiment has had very little effect on the USD, with both EURUSD and gold locked in restrictive ranges. The only major currency noticeably affected by the news was JPY, which weakened to nearly 89.00 levels against the USD – giving back some of its recent risk-aversion gains. The move was exacerbated by Japanese Consumer Confidence numbers that came out lower than expected at a subdued 39.9 against expectations for 40.7; highlighting that the Japanese economy is still struggling to find a firm footing in the economic recovery.

After yesterday’s striking outperformance of NZDUSD (+1.4% on the day) in the aftermath of the RBNZ policy meeting, we also had some comments out overnight from central bank Governor Bollard suggesting that the market’s reaction was excessive. He noted: “It was a fairly subtle shift, I think there’s been a bit of an over-reaction, especially on the FX markets”. Nevertheless, the currency has managed to maintain much of its ground today, currently trading around 0.7270 levels.

The morning’s data calendar will be light today, with the only release out of Europe being the UK PPI figures. Producer input price rises are expected to continue to outpace output prices, but for the most part we expect GBPUSD to carry on marking out its 1.6200-1.6350 range – as the recent Pre-Budget Report and yesterday’s Bank of England Report have not provided any meaningful catalyst for a break out either way.

This afternoon’s focus will be on US Retail Sales, U.Mich Consumer Confidence, and Business Inventories – but given the market’s meagre participation in USD moves over the last couple of days, we believe there will be a limited effect on most currency pairs.