来源：亚洲外汇网
作者：Rosenstreich
今日汇评
果然不出所料，风险规避情绪又来临了，看似欧元兑美元的区间上限很可能会收到威胁。标准普尔对日本银行的悲观评估，使得亚洲股市今日的走势较为低迷；其中，要数三井住友银行和三菱UFJ银行的评级最为悲观。上证综指也下跌了近3.5个百分点，使美元收回了前一天的部分损失，确保美元指数得到巩固，回到75点上方。欧元兑美元表现强劲，于1.4800至15000的区间中段交投，加上市场对好坏参半的美国经济数据在美元交易上表现得犹豫不决（详情可参考，昨日美国现房销售数据意外上扬，外汇市场对此所作的强烈反应），预期只有当美国在政策方面做出重大转变后，美元方可突破其窄幅波动的区间。
今天的财经日历充满了高风险的经济数据和经济事件，首当其冲的就是瑞士方面的数据和事件：如瑞士第三季度非农就业数据，预期该值将年比下滑0.8%；市场将重点关注瑞士央行对通货膨胀的规范（以及随后的货币政策），但由于受失业率上升拖累所致的通货紧缩的影响，若通货膨胀数据意外下滑，瑞士法郎将受压走低。随着美元兑瑞郎经历了昨日的窄幅下行货币行动，外汇市场今日倾向于预期美元兑瑞士法郎将向上修正。
其次，我们将获知的数据是德国11月IFO商业景气指数，预计该数据将温和改善；但由于欧元兑美元的区间震荡走势非常坚固，预期景气指数不太可能对其产生重大的影响。随后有更多的重要消息释放：英国央行行长金恩和其同事货币政策委员会成员将就最近期释放的通胀报告（上周公布）作证词陈述。这两个事件都非常重要，因为它们或将能为进一步的量化宽松政策提供一些指引，或重申下调存款利率的可能性（在通货膨胀报告中提到，为了应对未来贷款需求疲弱的局面，下调存款利率或许就是下一个采取的应对措施）。我们认为最有可能支持更多宽松政策释放的因素就是极为消极的国内生产总值数据，与此同时，欧元兑美元就是最有可能下行突破其区间下限的货币对。
今天下午的即将公布的数据有：美国第三季度国内生产总值的修正值，预计将从原来的3.5％下降至初始值2.8％，继该数据之后，就是美国11月消费者信心指数。虽然两者都占据着显著的地位，但我们认为其对区间震荡的美元的影响仍具有有限性，因为市场正在等待更晚些时候释放的联邦公开市场委员会的会议纪要。
Market Brief
Right on cue, the next whim of risk aversion has kicked in just as EURUSD looked to be on the brink of threatening the top end of its range at 1.5000. The catalyst today has been a poor session for Asian equities, prompted in part by Standard & Poor’s bleak assessment of Japanese banks; citing Sumitmo Mitsui and Mitsubishi UFJ as among the banks with the weakest capital. The Shanghai Composite is also down nearly 3.5%, allowing the USD to recoup some of its losses from the previous day, ensuring the DXY is now consolidating back above 75 levels. EURUSD is firmly back in the middle of its 1.4800-15000 range, and given the market’s indecision about what good/bad US data means for the USD (see yesterday’s FX reaction to the massive upside surprise in US Existing Home Sales), it seems that only a significant shift in the prospects for US policy and the USD are likely to evince a clear breakout of tight FX ranges.
Today’s data calendar is packed with high profile risk events for the majors, kicking off with Swiss Employment Levels which is forecast to show a continued decline in Q3 at an annualized pace of -0.8%. The primary focus for the SNB (and consequently their currency policy) is normalizing inflation, but given the considerable deflationary drag of rising unemployment, the CHF is likely to suffer on a downside surprise. With USDCHF trading at the lower end of its own range in the past day, the range-bound bias of FX markets also looks poised for a correction upwards in USDCHF.
Next we will see the German IFO survey results which are expected to show modest improvements across each category; however these are unlikely to evoke a strong effect on EURUSD with such entrenched ranges dictating trading. More likely to provide fireworks will be the UK central bank Governor Mervyn King and fellow MPC members testifying to the Treasury on the most recent Inflation Report (released last week). The two key things to watch out for here will be any indications on the likelihood of further QE, or indeed repeated suggestions of a cut to the deposit rate (mentioned in the Inflation report as a possible step in the future to increase sluggish lending). Any shift to favouring more accommodative policy will likely be severely GBP-negative, and we see GBPUSD as the most likely candidate to break out of its range on the downside.
This afternoon’s docket will provide the second reading of US Q3 GDP which is anticipated to be revised lower to 2.8% from the 3.5% initial print, followed by US Consumer Confidence. Although both are significant in stature, we feel there will be limited scope for either release to significantly affect USD ranges as the markets await the FOMC Minutes release later in the evening.
