来源：亚洲外汇网
作者：Rosenstreich
今日汇评
今日，美元继续下跌，这主要是因为上周五美国公布的11月密歇根大学消费者信心指数不如市场预期，而亚洲股市又开始强劲上扬。亚洲股市活跃的主要推动情绪来源于日本的第三季度国内生产总值数据，年比增长4.8%，远高于市场预期的2.9%，创2007年以来的最大年比增幅。截至目前，美元兑日元触及89.39低点，但受日元买盘需求的进一步刺激，加之美元抛售的进一步进行，美元下跌，日元上涨，美元兑日元这组货币对已经明显走跌，靠近89.00。
与此同时，黄金持续大幅上扬，现已突破1132美元每盎司的高点，截至今日，11月黄金累积涨幅高达8.5％。这次上扬趋势也将白银从周五的下降趋势中拉了回来，上周五，白银一度跌至17美元每盎司的支撑位，至本评论撰写之时，白银报价17.7美元每盎司。尽管贵金属的走势一般不太会保持一致，一旦贵金属的走势缺乏保护性的上行技术位，我们还是强烈建议投资者做空黄金。
展望今天的市场，我们期待着欧元区10月消费物价指数，市场预期增长0.3%，大致与上月持平。欧洲央行执行理事会成员表示，欧洲央行唯一的目标是维持物价稳定，该言论的意义非常重大; 尤其是当欧元区10月消费者物价指数意外年比上扬且出现正值的情况发生时（预期值下滑0.1%，前值下滑0.3%）。最近，欧洲央行成员González-Páramo’s表示，预期2010年欧元区消费者物价指数将上扬1%左右，而即使部分成员国还处于衰退之中，加息亦有可能发生。
今天下午的主要活动将在美国零售销售额数据，市场预期10月份该值将月比上扬0.9％，前值为下滑1.5%（反应出“旧车换现金”计划已经期满，其影响也结束）。在外汇市场，上周五公布的美国11月密歇根大学消费者信心指数令人失望，该数据表明美国经济数据欠佳现在是美元进一步抛售的催化剂；我们已经习惯的糟糕的美国数据支持美元的模式已经发生逆转。我们继续认为，疲弱的美元将进一步支持欧元兑美元，并期望该货币对将再次走高至1.5000的水平，并重新测试1.5060的阻力位水平。
Market Brief
The USD begins another week on the back foot as momentum from Friday’s post-U.Mich sell-off continues and Asian equities have started the session off with strong gains. The buoyant sentiment across Asian markets has been fuelled by Japan’s Q3 GDP figures which revealed the economy grew by an annualized pace of 4.8%, considerably higher than the 2.9% anticipated, and indeed the fastest pace of growth since Q1 2007. USDJPY has so far touched lows of 89.39, but for now further JPY strength is being constrained by buying interesting around 89.00, coupled with the fact the pair has been notably detached from participation in broader USD sell-offs as a general rule.
Meanwhile, gold headlines continue to simmer as the price surges to dizzying heights above $1132; making startling month-to-date gains in November of 8.5%. The rally has pulled silver back from the brink of breaking downside support at $17.00 on Friday, and allowed the metal to surge in unison back to 17.70 levels at the time of writing. The sheer pace of the rally in precious metals makes for precarious long entry, however we still strongly discourage shorting gold just yet given the lack of any protective upside technical levels.
Looking ahead to today’s session we await European CPI figures for October where markets are anticipating a 0.3% gain MoM after last month’s flat reading. With the ECB governing council exclusively concerned with maintaining price stability, this reading will be significant; especially if there is an upside surprise that could nudge the YoY reading out of negative territory (-0.1% expected, -0.3% prior). Recent rhetoric from members has included González-Páramo’s predictions that Eurozone CPI could rise around 1% next year, and that rate hikes were still possible even with some member states still in recession.
This afternoon’s key event will be US Retail Sales, where consensus estimates look for a 0.9% gain in October after last month’s -1.5% reading (reflecting the expiry of the cash-for-clunkers stimulus plan). The behavior of FX markets to Friday’s disappointing U.Mich suggests that poor US data is now a catalyst to further USD selling; a reversal of the pattern we have grown accustomed to where poor US data is supportive of USD. We continue to feel that from here, the balance of risks are supportive of further EURUSD gains on the back of a weakening USD, and expect the pair to regain 1.5000 levels and re-test 1.5060 resistance in due course.
