来源：亚洲外汇网
今日汇评
昨日，因市场公布的美国第三季度国内生产总值好于预期，风险偏好重新焕发生机，欧洲股市和美国股市昨日双双全面走高，而亚洲股指隔夜也获得积极动力。美国第三季度国内生产总值季调后年率上升3.5%，超过经济学家预期的上升3.2%，这是美国经济自2008年第二季度以来首次实现增长。该值又反过来影响欧元兑美元以及黄金的走势，欧元兑美元反弹上扬测试阻力位1.4860，黄金从低点反弹上扬至1047美元每盎司上方。我们认为该利好数据将继续给风险相关交易提供上扬动力，直至相关政府官员表示改变货币政策立场；但这种改变暂时不太可能实现，因为劳动力市场依然处于悲观状态，而且经济增长本身也离不开刺激政策的带动。
隔夜，日本央行一致投票决定将利率维持在0.1%不变，与此同时，央行还宣布将于今年12月份停止资产购买方案，迈出了退出经济刺激政策的策略的第一步。日本9月份失业率意外下降至5.3％（预期值是下降5.6％，前值是下降5.5％），日元因此走强，美元兑日元从91.60下滑至90.80。然而，通货膨胀数据显示，日本9月全国消费者物价指数同比下降2.2%，这使得央行在短期内不可能采取加息举措或继续容忍日元的强势。
今日的关键事件主要源于欧洲，如欧元区10月消费者物价调和指数和9月失业率指数。目前，欧洲央行坚决表示当前的利率是适当的，且通货膨胀预期仍然“被牢牢控制住”。因此一旦消费者物价指数意外上涨（前值为同比下滑0.1％，前值为同比下滑0.3%），则很可能刺激欧洲央行改变其政策立场，并有利于欧元兑美元继续攀升。然而，不断上升的失业率给欧元区带来的通货紧缩压力也成为欧洲央行不得不考虑的一个重要因素，今日释放的数据显示，市场预期欧元区9月失业率指数将从8月的9.6%温和上涨至9.7%。
在美国市场，即将释放的数据有：加拿大第三季度国内生产总值数据、美国9月个人消费支出物价指数、美国10月芝加哥采购经理人指数、美国10月密歇根消费者信心指数。当前的市场情绪认为这些数据很可能会意外上扬，届时将推动美元大规模抛售，而下行风险（除非下行的幅度非常之大）依然存在，但其影响将是有限的。
Market Brief
Yesterday’s better than expected US Q3 GDP has revitalized risk appetite; sending equity markets higher across Europe and the US yesterday, and providing positive momentum through to Asian indices overnight. The 3.5% annualized Q3 figures exceeded forecasts for 3.2% and indicated the first expansion in the US since Q2 2008. In turn, EURUSD has rallied to test resistance around 1.4860 and gold has rebounded from its lows to settle above $1047. We feel this will continue to fuel risk correlated trades higher until officials indicate a shift in monetary policy stance; something which seems unlikely just yet with the labour market in such a dreadful state and growth having not yet proved itself without the aid of stimulus measures.
Overnight the BoJ voted to keep rates at 0.1% as expected, but they also announced their asset purchase programmes would be allowed to expire in December, a first stage in the withdrawal of stimulus. An unexpected drop in the Jobless Rate to 5.3% (5.6% expected, 5.5% prior) was also a key factor in the JPY strengthening against the USD from 91.60 to 90.80. Nevertheless, inflation figures indicated national CPI running at -2.2% YoY in Sep, which makes it unlikely the BoJ will be any closer to raising rates or tolerating a strong JPY any time soon.
Today’s key events from Europe will be the October HICP and Unemployment Rate. Currently the ECB are resolute that current rates are appropriate and inflation expectations remain ‘firmly anchored’. Consequently any unexpected increase in CPI (-0.1% YoY exp, -0.3% prior) would likely be a catalyst for speculation about a shift in ECB stance and be favourable to EURUSD climbing higher. However, the deflationary pressure of rising unemployment will also be an important factor to consider for the governing council, today’s reading is forecast to show a moderate uptick to 9.7% from 9.6% last month.
The US Session will provide Canadian Q3 GDP along with US PCE price index, Chicago PMI and U.Mich Consumer Confidence. The current mood of the markets will likely result in positive surprises fuelling USD selling, while downside misses (unless extreme) will have limited effect.
