来源：亚洲外汇网

作者：Rosenstreich

今日汇评

隔夜，澳大利亚公布10月失业率数据，微升5.8％，与市场预期大致相同，提振了风险偏好情绪在昨日外汇市场上的表现。该失业数据释放之后，澳元兑美元大幅上涨，从0.9310涨至0.9370的释放，至欧洲市场，该货币对的报价围绕0.9350不断攀升。新西兰公布的9月零售销售额数据令人失望，月比上升幅度仅为0.2%，远低于市场预期的月比上升0.4%；但该零售销售额数据的释放却促使澳元兑纽元自上周以来首次实现高于1.2600的水平。尽管股市在本周一直表现平平(上周的整体表现比较积极)，但黄金还是走出了新的高点，报价1123美元每盎司，黄金在本月前两周的累积上涨幅度高达8%。

昨天发生的主要事件有：英镑遭遇大幅抛售、国际劳工组织失业率意外下降至7.8％（预期值为8.0％，前值为7.9％）以及英国央行的季度通胀报告。该报告指出，预期英国经济将缓慢增长，而通货膨胀率在短期内将会大幅上扬。报告内容释放后，英镑兑美元从16750大幅下滑至1.6650，并且其下滑趋势在接下来的晚盘里也一直持续。英镑的大幅抛售要归因于英国央行行长金恩的公开讲话：“央行对于是否还要扩大资产购买规模持完全开放的态度”；该讲话动摇了市场认为英国货币政策委员会自上次会议将资产购买计划规模扩大250亿英镑之后，不会再采取进一步措施的理论。

瑞典在今天上午释放其10月消费者物价指数预期值，月比上升0.2%，9月该值月比上升0.3%。瑞典9月份的相关经济数据多少有些令人失望，其中工业生产数据、零售销售额数据以及消费者物价指数均不如预期值，而失业率更是走高至8.3%。在这种背景下，我们并不认为瑞典央行在其12月份的央行会议上会将态度转向强硬立场，但其他央行（美联储、欧洲央行、英国央行）都是尽力传达一个更为平衡的观点的局势也不得不认真考虑。而技术面的情况也同样值得关注，在本周早些时候5日均线已经下穿20天均线，欧元兑瑞典克朗首次获得支撑，围绕10.1500水平震荡。

今天晚些时候即将公布欧元区9月工业生产数据(预期月率上升0.5%，前值为月率上升0.9%)，但是我们却认为该数据的重要性或将盖过明日的欧元区第三季度国内生产总值数据。与此同时，我们还预期欧元兑美元的走势将主要由风险偏好情绪支配（重点关注股票市场和黄金市场），而其他一些技术性水平仍促使该货币对在本周的大部分时间里维持区间震荡状态: 1.4950的关键支撑位水平，1.5045-63的阻力位区间水平。随着美国公众假期(昨日是美国退伍军人纪念日)的结束，美国股市恢复开市状态，预期正常的流动性在下午的市场就可实现，但在此期间即将公布的财经数据较少，仅有加拿大9月新屋价格指数和美国上周初申请失业金人数。

Market Brief

Risk appetite has been maintained across the FX markets after Australian Unemployment figures overnight remained relatively stable at 5.8% as expected. AUDUSD rallied sharply after the release from 0.9310 to 0.9370, and bids have kept the pair elevated around 0.9350 levels into the European session. The news comes in the wake of disappointing New Zealand Retail Sales figures which could only muster a 0.2% gain on the month against expectations for a 0.4% print; ensuring AUDNZD surged back above 1.2600 levels for the first time since last week. Despite Asian equities putting in a mediocre performance (albeit after a strongly positive week overall), gold has powered to new highs yet again above $1123 – taking us up nearly 8% in just the first 2 weeks of this month.

This morning’s session kicks off with Swedish CPI which is forecast to gain 0.2% MoM after last month’s 0.3% reading. Swedish data has been somewhat disappointing in the past month, with Industrial Production, Retail Sales and PPI all coming in lower than expected, and the Unemployment rate ticking higher to 8.3%. We feel this backdrop makes it unlikely the Riksbank will shift to a more hawkish stance in their December meeting, but considering the recent pattern of other central banks trying to convey a more balanced view of the recovery from here (Fed, ECB, BoE), this will be an important reading to take into account. Also important for momentum players will be the 5-day moving average crossing below the 20-day moving earlier this week, EURSEK first support comes in around 10.1500 levels.

Later in the morning expect Eurozone Industrial Production (0.5% MoM expected, 0.9% last); however we feel that the significance of this number will be overshadowed by tomorrow’s Q3 GDP reading. In the meantime expect EURUSD to be predominantly driven by risk appetite themes (watch equity markets and gold), and technical levels that have kept the pair range bound for most of the week – 1.4950 key support, 1.5045-63 resistance zone. With the US back from yesterday’s public holiday, we expect a return to normal liquidity in the afternoon session, but data events will be light with just Canadian Housing Price Index and US claims numbers due.