ACM：意外上扬的企业盈利数据支撑风险偏好情绪升温
来源：亚洲外汇网
今日汇评
很明显，美元继续遭遇抛售。虽然股票市场依然“安静”（强生公司与英特尔公司企业盈利数据的意外上扬，提振风险偏好情绪升温。），但利率的变化将继续扮演引起外汇市场波动的最强劲动力。“低利率水平将维持很长一段时间”的论调已经打压美元，引起市场担忧，而各国央行宣称将实行外汇储备币种多样化的评论更是加剧了这份担忧。日本央行周三宣布利率决定，维持基准利率不变，但并未对其商业筹资措施做出任何评论。日本央行行长白川方明将于今日格林尼治标准时间0715左右发表公开演讲。日本财政部副部长就日元发表的评论，与财务大臣藤井裕久的看法基本一致。他说，日元当前的强势归因于美元的疲软，外汇市场通常不应反应过度，日元的升值不能构成日本央行进行汇市干预的有力理由。但他没有提及要到何种程度时才适合实施干预措施。这也可以被看成是美元兑日元在未来将继续下滑通道的信号。
广大媒体对重要领导人有关经济形势的讲话做了全天候的跟踪报道。美联储副主席科恩周三就美国当天经济形势做了谨慎性的评估，与上周五公开发表的讲话形成了鲜明的对比，他上周的讲话主要集中于通货膨胀主题，而此次他则表示,这一次经济将难以实现V字型的复苏，并对未来通货通胀率很可能是下滑的前景表示担忧。他的讲话致使美元在亚洲市场走弱，欧元兑美元在1.4839至 1.4897的区间内交投。当欧洲央行理事会成员诺亚在被要求对其他货币是否可替代美元用于跨境商品及服务交易结算事宜作出评论时，他表示，全球货币体系更加均衡是一个好的想法，但特别提款权无法替代美元的地位。毫不奇怪的是，他表示，直至人民币实现完全可兑换，否则就没有资格成为全球主要储备货币。加拿大首相哈珀对加拿大央行行长卡尼和财政部长弗莱厄蒂的看法表示赞同，表示对最近的加元的强势表现表示担忧。不过，他表示，加拿大财政刺激方案规模之大足以弥补外汇市场波动给出口商造成的损失。而新西兰财长英格利希再次表示其对新西兰元强势的担忧，因为数字显示：截至2009年6月，新西兰政府2009财年运作赤字创纪录地高达105亿新西兰元，比之前预期的高出12亿新西兰元。
在欧洲市场,交易商将密切关注欧元区工业生产数据和英国劳动力市场数据。在美国市场，交易商将重点关注美国9月联邦公开市场委员会的会议纪要和零售销售额数据。9月联邦公开市场委员会的会议纪要将收到密切关注是因为：市场正在寻找美联储在退出战略方面的清晰立场。美联储肯定了上次会议达成的资产收购计划目标，该决定意味着市场将继续担忧房屋市场，这一点应该在会议纪要中得到详细阐述。市场预期美国9月零售销售额扣除汽车的零售销售额月比上升0.2%，前值为1.1%。或许，最重要的风险事件还是要数JP摩根和摩根士丹利的第三季度企业盈利报告。
Market Brief
USD weakness was the primary theme in the Asian session. The DXY is now making fresh lows, while the EURUSD peaked above thee 1.4900 handle. Sterling finally gained some ground on the greenback weakness, stopping just short of the 1.6000 level. Overall, risk correlated trades are showing a stellar performance and there seems to be little in the way of shifting risk appetite. Even a report that had Moody's stating that banks in Spain were failing to recognize the full extent of their losses could not dampen the optimistic outlook. In addition, the Moody’s report also stated that given the size of the bad debt, the Spanish banks would have insufficient capital to cover. And in another article it mentioned that 13 EU member states were in a high risk group, due to bad loans and couldn’t see how they could fund their debts through just state income. Perhaps the news that Intel’s corporate earnings had topped analysis expectations helped mute the Moody report. Equity market and commodities rallied on the positive numbers and USD sank.
The BoJ Policy Board ended its two-day monetary meeting with a unanimous decision to leave rates unchanged at 0.1%, as was universally expected. The accompanying statement did not comment on the end-December deadline for commercial paper and corporate bond buying operations, as some had predicted. What was more relevant was comments from Japan 's deputy finance minister expressing views on the JPY, which were indistinguishable to those of Finance Minister Fujii. He stated that current JPY strength is due to USD weakness, and that large FX swings are unwelcomed, and that rises in the JPY is not an adequate reason for intervention. In other words, an official green light to buy JPY.
In the US session, markets will be watching Retail Sales and FOMC minutes, as well as corporate earnings from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley. The FOMC minutes will be closely examined, as participants seek clarity on the Fed's current position on exit strategies.
