来源：亚洲外汇网

今日汇评

今日的亚洲股市强劲走高，归因于日元的疲软和新西兰零售销售额数据的提振; 新西兰8月份零售销售额月比增长1.1%，预期值为月比增长0.5%（前值为月比下滑0.5％），是继澳大利亚和美国之后的第三个公布了远远好于零售销售额预期值的国家。受该利好数据的刺激，纽元兑美元立即反弹上扬，从0.7340上涨至0.7380，并将该积极势头成功延续至欧洲市场的开盘。尽管经济数据积极且股市表现强劲，但美元依然能维持其强硬态势（美元指数为76.19），相应地，大宗商品价格当天基本持平：黄金报价1055.70美元每盎司，白银报价17.80美元每盎司，石油报价73美元每桶。

今天上午的经济数据主要有欧元区通货膨胀数据的预期值，以及瑞士9月生产者/进口物价指数(预期值是月比上升0.1%，前值也是月比上升0.1%，) ---考虑到最近的消费者物价指数和瑞士央行对瑞士法郎的汇率做出的高调干预措施-旨在抵御通货紧缩，市场将密切关注这些指标，因为这些指标届时将表明通货紧缩压力或加重或减缓。接下来公布的数据是瑞典的9月消费物价指数，较上月同比增长0.4%，而通货膨胀率预期将月比上扬0.4%，然后是英国的9月消费者物价指数，如市场普遍预期月比上扬0.3%，前值是月比上扬0.4%。预期其他即将要公布的数据包括德国ZEW经济预期数据和美国预算平衡数据。

在企业盈利报告方面，今天要公布盈利数据的是强生公司和英特尔公司，后者可能对市场情绪的带动起着更为重要的作用，然而能引起市场更大波动的事件应该是明天的JP摩根和摩根士丹利的盈利报告，再加上美国零售销售额数据和联邦公开市场委员会的会议纪要。到目前为止，本月的外汇市场受风险事件的影响较小，表现相对平稳，因为市场上要么没有发生任何风险事件，要么就是分析师之前就都已经预期到这些变化。我们仍然认为，美元疲软的趋势将进一步持续下去，如果说其前景意外出现下滑的情况，则美元势必会迎来一次修正。

Market Brief

Asian equities are strongly higher today as a weak JPY boosted manufacturing names and NZ Retail Sales set a bullish tone to the session; Aug figures were 1.1% MoM vs. 0.5% expected (-0.5% prior), following the example set by Australian and US Retail Sales in convincingly beating forecasts. NZDUSD immediately popped from 0.7340 to 0.7380, and has managed to sustain these levels into the start of the European session. Despite the positive data and robust equity market performance, the USD has stayed firm (DXY 76.19) and correspondingly commodity prices are broadly flat on the day: gold $1055.70, silver $17.80, crude $73.

This morning’s data calendar has a raft of inflation figures out of Europe, kicking off with Swiss Producer & Import Prices for Sep (0.1% MoM exp, 0.1% prior) – considering the recent miss in CPI and the SNB’s high profile interventions on the CHF currency to fend off deflation, this will be keenly watched for any indications that deflation worries are founded or indeed, have abated. Next up is Swedish CPI (Sep) where inflation is forecast to have ticked up 0.4% MoM after posting a 0.2% gain last month, then UK CPI (Sep) where consensus estimates predict a 0.3% gain MoM vs. 0.4% in August. Other releases to expect include German ZEW economic expectations and later on the US Budget Balance.

In the earnings space, today will bring Johnson & Johnson and Intel Corp; with the latter likely to be the more important driver of market sentiment, however the major market moving events are likely to be tomorrow; with JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley reporting, coupled with the release of US Retail Sales and FOMC Minutes. So far markets have enjoyed a relatively smooth ride throughout the month as risk events have either passed without incident or bettered analyst forecasts. We still believe the USD weakness trend has further to go, but there is undoubtedly room for a correction if the outlook is soured by a downside surprise.