亚洲市场：市场等待新鲜数据

今日汇评

美元在亚洲市场走弱，只因金融时报的一篇文章让美元汇价承压。欧元兑美元从1.3606下跌至1.3720，而美元兑日元从96.60下跌至95.80。英镑一直受强于预期的数据的支撑，在打破体面的顶端水平后，汇价位于1.5315。金融时报有一篇报道称，前美国国会审计署负责人大卫沃克表示，美国需要积极应对AAA的主权评级面临被下调的风险。这里还需要指出的是，美国是一个全球性的板凳市场，美国的主权评级下调将引发其他国家的主权评级的下调。

欧洲央行韦伯借此机会提供有关欧洲央行最近宣布计划购买担保债券的进一步细节。他说，简单的印发货币并不是欧洲央行的目标，欧洲央行的措施旨在改善市场流动性并为企业和银行融资。最重要的是，他认为目前没有必要将资产收购计划扩大为其他形式的债务。央行主席特里谢称：除了采取上周公布的一系列措施外，并不排除在未来会扩大资产收购计划，受此番言论的影响，欧元走强。

截至2009年的2月份，在亚洲区域，中国的外汇储备10个月中有9个月是下调，但最后再次恢复涨势。资本的流动也开始变为正值，或至少不再是负值。由于进口需求非常的薄弱，导致贸易顺差急剧上升，经常帐盈余也急剧扩大。但有关数据也表明该地区的央行将再次购买国债。

较高的通货膨胀预期推动黄金价格进入新的波动范围，贸易价格高于50天移动平均线，油价飙升至59美元每桶，为那些期待通过套期保值来实现收益的交易商提供了绝好的机会，套期交易将打压其它的资产类别。如果交易商对高收益类资产的青睐能维持一个较长的时间，美国和多数欧洲国家设置的这种极端低利率的环境就为迅猛的通货膨胀创造了条件。黄金在过去的5个交易日里一直表现得比较震荡，曾一度跌至895美元每盎司的低点，目前的交易价为925美元每盎司。这是典型的贵金属交易波动宽幅，这个宽幅信号提醒投资者在对黄金进行投机交易时应当谨慎。如果市场继续走向复苏阶段，对通货膨胀的担忧将增加，支持黄金走向更高水平。

Asian Session: FT Reports of Potential US Ratings Downgrade

Market Brief

The Usd was weaker in the Asian session, as an article in the Financial Times weight on the greenback. The EurUsd traded to 1.3720 from 1..3606,vwhile the UsdJpy traded down to 95.80 from 96.60. The Sterling has been supported by stronger than expect data, breaking decent topside levels at 1.5315. The FT report has an opinion piece by David Walker, the former comptroller general of the US , arguing that the US needs actively respond to steer clear of a downgrade in its AAA rating. It’s important to mention that the US is a global benchmark and would lead to other sovereign downgrades. Wall Street closed slightly lower, but Asian regional indexes closed higher and European are currently in the positive.

Expectations for higher inflation pushed gold into a new range, trading well above the 50 day moving average of $908oz. Oil surged to $59bbl, providing the perfect opportunity for Traders looking to benefit from hedgers going long to thwart price pressure on other asset classes. The US and most of Europe are in a extremely low interest rate environment, setting the stage for rapid inflation if the demand for higher yielding assets becomes a longer-term trend.. Gold has been fairly volatile over the last several sessions with a 5 day low of $895oz , versus the current price of $925oz. This wide range is atypical for the precious metal and should act as a sign of caution for investors speculating in gold. If the market continues to move towards a recovery phase, inflation concerns will rise bolstering gold even higher.