There were a few notable moves in FX on Tuesday.Despite weaker than expected CPI data,sterling managed to quickly reverse all of the initial losses,squeezing out a lot of shorts in the process.Sterling was 0.7%firmer against the euro through the day.Against the dollar,the euro finds itself not that far away from the year’s lows(currently at 1.1753 from yesterday).There remains an ongoing focus on next week’s ECB meeting,which has continued to put downside pressure on the currency.As an aside,also not that the European Court of Justice announces a non-binding legal opinion on the ECB’s 2012 program(not implemented).This is of some interest given Germany’s on-going concerns regarding the efficacy of the ECB’s QE program that is likely to be outlined this quarter.
周二外汇方面有几个值得注意的变动。尽管CPI比预期要差，英镑还是努力地迅速地恢复了一开始的损失，挤压了许多的短仓。整个一天里英镑针对欧元稳定了0.7%。相对美元来说，欧元离开年度低点也不远了（目前来看是昨天的1.1753）。下周欧洲央行的会议仍然是焦点，这个会议一直都对欧元有下行的压力。此外还要注意欧盟法院将宣布一个针对欧洲央行2012年计划的非限制性法律（还未实现）。这件事情还是令人感兴趣的，因为德国目前比较担忧欧洲央行量化宽松计划的效率，而这个计划可能会在这个季度出台一个框架。
The main overnight news has been seen on the Aussie,with the currency down 1.2%,mostly on the back of the sharp decline in copper prices.As we’ve mentioned before,the Aussie has traded less like a commodity currency in the past couple of years,but the linkage is not totally broken when we see extreme moves such as the 5%decline seen overnight.
昨天主要的新闻就是澳元。澳元下跌了1.2%，原因就是铜价的大幅下跌。正如我们此前提到的，过去几年里澳元作为商品货币交易量减少，但澳元和商品之间的关联还未完全消失，而昨天则突然出现了5%下跌这样的极端变化。
For today,US retail sales data is see at 13:30 GMT.The headline rate is seen falling slightly by 0.1%,with the ex-autos and gas measure rising a more robust 0.5%.The past three months have seen US gasoline pump prices fall by a third.What we have to start looking for now are stronger signs that households are spending the money saved elsewhere in the economy in the data released over the coming 1-2 months.
今天，美国的零售数据将在格林尼治时间13点30分发布。整体比例可能会小幅下跌0.1%，排除汽车和燃油因素之后则会稳健地上升0.5%。过去三个月里美国加油站油价下跌了三分之一。我们现在应该关注的就是，有强烈迹象表明家庭开始把别处存的钱用来消费，数据将在未来一两个月里有结果。
New lows for EUR after court ruling
法庭裁决后欧元触新低
by Simon Smith,Chief Economist
January 14,2015@11:15 UTC
Market Snapshots
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EURUSD down at levels last seen in December 2005 in the wake of interim ruling by the European Court of Justice saying that the ECB’s OMT bond buying program,launched in 2012,is legal.This program was never actually implemented.Indeed,it was the most successful central bank program that was never put in place,because alongside Draghi’s promise to do“whatever it takes”it allowed for a sustained rally in peripheral bond markets.
由于欧盟法院临时裁决欧洲央行2012年的OMT（直接货币交易）债券购买计划是合法的，欧元美元达到2005年12月才出现过的水平。这个计划从来没有实行过。的确，这个计划是央行最为成功的计划，因为Draghi曾誓言“要采取一切措施”来保证外围债券市场稳定的反弹。
US retail sales disappoint
美国零售数据令人失望
by Simon Smith,Chief Economist
January 14,2015@13:36 UTC
Market Snapshots
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EURUSD initially up 45 pips to 1.1805 after weaker than expected Retail Sales data,headline down-0.9%,ex-Autos down 1.0%.GBP 1.5235,USDJPY at 116.31.Data showing few signs that weaker energy prices are helping consumption elsewhere in the economy,but this should start to come through Jan-Feb,given that over the past 3 months prices at the pump are are down one-third.
由于零售数据比预期要疲软，欧元美元一开始上升了45点到了1.1805。零售数据整体下跌比例-0.9%，排除汽车因素则下跌比例为1.0%。英镑位于1.5235，美元日元位于116.31。数据显示出有迹象表明，能源价格疲软助长了经济体中别处的消费，但这种情况会贯穿一到二月份，因为过去三个月里加油站油价已经下跌了三分之一。