Overnight data from China showed the economy slowing in the third quarter in year-on-year terms,although not by quite as much as anticipated by the market.Headline GDP increased 7.2%(expected 7.1%),with industrial production for September coming in stronger than expected at 8.0%(expected 7.5%).China needs to slow,because the growth seen in recent years has been built on credit expansion that is now causing problems,but naturally the authorities don’t want to see a slowdown that it too rapid and then requires government stimulus(which they have so far resisted)to counteract.The softer dollar tone has continued overnight,with the Aussie gaining the most on the back of the better data from China,AUDUSD climbing to the 0.8830 level.Note that the minutes to the latest RBA minutes re-iterated the message from the statement that the RBA were seeing a long period of steady rates,given developments in China and also greater concerns regarding the global economy.

　　昨天中国的数据显示出其经济在第三季度同比放缓，不过幅度不如市场此前预测的那么大。其整体GDP为7.2%（预测为7.1%），九月工业生产比预期要强，为8.0%（预测为7.5%）。中国需要放缓，因为最近几年其增长导致的信用扩张制造了不少问题，不过很自然的中国官方并不想见到迅速的放缓，因为这样的话就政府就不得不进行刺激（到目前为止政府还一直拒绝这么做）以应对。美元疲软的局面昨天仍在继续，澳元由于中国的数据变好而上升，其中澳元美元到了0.8830这个水平。要注意澳联储最新的会议内容纪要重申澳洲联储会维持利率长时间的稳定，这是因为中国的情况不错，也基于对全球经济的担忧。

　　Monday proved to be a calmer day for FX,at least in relation to the volatility seen through most of October.It’s clear that the dollar story has changed,which was perhaps inevitable given the extent of Q3 gains,but for now there has not been a clear replacement.Beneath the surface,both the euro and sterling were finding some support above 1.61 and 1.2750 areas respectively on GBPUSD and EURUSD.Sterling is likely to prove reticent ahead of GDP data later this week.The single currency however has seen a shift in underlying sentiment,less hopeful that further policy measures will have a material impact on the currency and also seeing a greater shift towards the impact of a deflationary environment.For Tuesday,there are no key data releases,just UK borrowing data at 08:30 GMT and US existing home sales later in the day.Note that quarterly inflation data in Australia the key overnight focus for Wednesday.

　　周一对外汇来说是较为安静的一天，至少从贯穿十月大部分时间的波动方面来看是如此。很明显美元的局面发生了变化，由于第三季度的上涨，美元出现着这种变化可能是无法避免的；而英镑和欧元方面，英镑美元和欧元美元分别在1.61和1.2750之上得到支撑。这一周晚些时候GDP数据发布之前，英镑可能会比较沉默。但欧元方面似乎市场情绪发生了转变，政策措施不太可能对欧元产生实际的影响，而通缩的环境对于欧元的影响也产生了很大的转变。周二没有关键的数据发布，只有格林尼治时间8点30分英国的借贷数据，以及稍晚发布的美国现房销售数据。要注意，澳洲的季度数据是周三的关注焦点。