The past 24 hours have seen some key moves in FX,most notably on the yen which has weakened further and taken USDJPY above the 106 level and more decisively above the tight range than has held so far this year.This could well bring some greater conviction to those pushing for a weaker yen,which has proved so elusive for most of the year to date.The Aussie has also been suffering,both during yesterday’s session and also during the Asia session.AUDUSD has broken down below the 0.92 levels and is currently at levels last seen late March.The Aussie has been pretty resilient over the past few months,but underneath there is a central bank that still views the currency as being over-valued,whilst there are signs that the currency is playing catch-up with some of the weakness seen in commodities during this month,especially iron ore,down nearly 6%so far.Data overnight has also shown consumer confidence weaker than expected.

　　过去24小时里外汇方面出现一些关键的变化，最值得注意的就是日元出现进一步疲软，导致美元日元上升到106之上，确切地说就是上升到了今年到目前为止出现的狭窄范围之上；这也给了那些在推动日元疲软的人以更多信念。不过今年到现在为止日元的情况仍是捉摸不定。昨天澳元在欧洲盘和亚洲盘都在遭受痛苦。澳元美元突破到了0.92之下，目前位于三月底的水平。过去几个月之中澳元都相当有弹性，不过澳洲的央行仍然认为澳元被高估，不过有迹象显示由于这个月一些商品出现疲软导致澳元也有所跟进。这些商品中最显著的就是铁矿，到目前为止下跌了将近6%。昨天的数据也显示出消费者信心指数比预期要疲软。

　　For today,there are no major data releases for markets.Having said that,we are seeing a higher degree of both volatility and also more sustained trends in FX and this is creating better opportunities for those trading break-outs and bigger macro trends.The dollar index(DXY)has been rising for the previous 8 weeks,whilst we’ve seen key breakouts on the Aussie,yen,with modest reversals seen on the euro and also sterling in wider downtrends against the dollar.Volatility has risen significantly,looking at the CVIX(Deutsche Bank implied volatility index),which has risen to levels last seen in March of this year.On sterling,implied volatilities are at levels last seen 13 months ago on the 3 month measure.This is mostly down to the impending referendum on Scottish independence,which remains too close to call.Sterling has actually recovered over the past 24 hours,but this comes after a strong decline on the back of the turn in polls over the weekend,so volatility is likely to remain at least until the end of next week.

　　今天没有主要的经济数据要发布。不过，我们发现外汇方面波动和某些长期趋势都有所增加；对于那些做突破交易和大趋势的人来是更好的机遇。此前八周中美元指数（DXY）已经在连续上升，我们发现澳元和日元都出现关键的突破，而欧元和英镑针对美元在不断扩大的下行趋势中也出现小幅逆转。从CVIX来看波动（德意志银行隐含波动指数）已经显著上升，到了今年三月才出现过的水平。英镑方面，在三月一测量的基础上隐含波动已经处于十三个月之前的水平。这种情况主要是因为苏格兰独立公投的双方势力不相上下。而过去二十四小时中英镑实际上已经恢复，不过这是发生在上周末投票调查出现转变导致的大幅下跌之后。因此，下周末来临之前，波动可能会继续下去。