周五(2月17日)希腊有望很快达成债务互换协议,受此因素影响提振投资者情绪和风险偏好。欧元区成员国央行将会在希腊与民间债权人达成协议前,将所持希腊债券换为新债以免遭遇被动损失,债券互换料将在周末发生。如果希腊债务互换协议在周一敲定,随后希腊第二批援助计划细节出炉,有传言称,希腊正在换债,而且很有可能短期内达成协议,市场正在对这些传言作出反应。
此前有报道称,欧盟(European Union)官员或将停发部分或全部希腊救助贷款。欧元/美元周四亚市盘中跌破1.3000关口。由于希腊4月份将举行大选,决策者们担心新一届希腊政府可能推翻在国内不得人心的改革计划。在下周一(1月20日)欧元区财长会议上希腊将努力达成1,300亿欧元救助计划,以避免无序违约。欧元区债务互换可能性的消息缓解了欧元压力,欧元等非美货币快速反弹上涨。
Action Economics全球货币分析部门主管Ronald Simpson称,“市场仍预计希腊将会避免无序违约。希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙将会脱离险境,市场对此信心很足。”
美国数据方面,美国上周初请失业金34.8万人,优于预期36.5万人,这是2008年3月8日以来最低水平。美国1月PPI月率上升0.1%,年率上升4.1%;1月核心PPI月率上升0.4%,年率上升3.0%。另外,美国1月新屋开工总数年化为69.9万户,好于预期67.5万户;1月新屋开工年化月率上升1.5%。美国1月营建许可总数上升0.7%,至67.6万户。
欧元兑美元
开盘价1.3127,昨收价1.3127,最低价1.3122,最高价1.3136,现报1.3139。隔夜欧元上涨至1.3190美元,一天都处于欧元区官员和希腊援助方案之间的磨损状态。默认的恐惧加剧使欧美达1.3044美元低点,大幅报导中国约定购买欧元区债务也未能支持欧美。
The euro edged higher overnight to US$1.3190, but again sold-off heavily during the day due tofraying tempers between euro zone officials and those in Greece over the bailout package.Exacerbating default fears saw the pair sell off sharply to US$1.3044 lows as news of Chinascommitment to purchasing Eurozone debt failed to support it.
美元兑瑞郎
开盘价0.9191,昨收价0.9189,最低价0.9180,最高价0.9196,现报0.9186。希腊的消息流出后美元持续加强,美瑞达0.9251高点。
The pair spiked higher on news flows out of Greece and the dollar continued to strengthen until theclose reaching CHF0.9251 high.
美元兑日元
开盘价78.83,昨收价78.82,最低价78.82,最高价79.17,现报79.14。日本央行购买更多政府债券的誓言,最初使美日达78.61高。早盘支持美元没有缓和,但是日元上扬,阻力在78.19,随后美日上涨幅度较高。
Following the BoJs vow to purchasing more Government bonds, the pair initially moved higher to78.61. During the day support for USD did ease, however Yen gains found resistance at 78.19 andsubsequently the pair squirmed higher.
英镑兑美元
开盘价1.5804,昨收价1.5804,最低价1.5800,最高价1.5815,现报1.5808。英国央行的通胀报告提高了通货膨胀预测以及抑制期望进一步缓和,镑美在近期低点附近徘徊。震荡之后看到1.5736美元高点,经济复苏担忧情绪抑制了任何收益。
The BoE inflation report raised its inflation forecast dampening expectations of further easing whichsupported Cable as it hovered near recent lows. A choppy session saw US$1.5736 high early on withunderlying concerns about economic recovery restraining any gains.
澳元兑美元
开盘价1.0747,昨收价1.0748,最低价1.0746,最高价1.0796,现报1.0789。风险货币澳美取得了很大的成果,中国继续支持欧洲获乐观。然而它最终屈服于希腊恐惧,作为一个救市计划仍然遥遥无期,澳美跌至1.0680美元。
The risk correlated pair made strong gains overnight on optimism from Chinas continued support inEurope. However it ultimately succumbed to Greek fears as a bailout plan remained elusive and fell to US$1.0680.
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