来源：环球外汇网

昨日，联邦公开市场委员会对美国劳动力市场的发表乐观评估，致使美元涨幅扩大。与市场预期的一致，美联储决定维持联邦基金利率不变政策，并在其附加声明中保留有关利率水平的重要言论——维持“超低水平的利率”至“更长一段时间”。然而，我们已经看到类似言论在上个月劳动力市场的下滑步伐“放缓”的情况下被解释为提振美元的措施。在外汇市场，由于惠誉对希腊的信用评级下调并威胁到外汇市场的进一步价格行动，标准普尔也跟随下滑，美元兑欧元在早盘中走跌。除非希腊总理帕潘德里欧能够解决其严重的预算赤字问题。欧元兑美元在整个亚洲市场中大幅下跌，下一个重要支撑位为1.4480，目前触及1.4369低点。

在上一个交易日中，重要事件有瑞典央行会议和挪威央行会议。两家央行的货币政策决定基本上与市场完全一致。瑞典央行宣布维持0.25%的利率不变，除此之外，基本上没有给市场带来任何新的信息，央行也没有像市场预期的那样对是否结束固定利率招标做出抉择。今天，我们将获取最新的瑞典失业数据，预计从前值的8.1% 小幅走高至8.2%。

相对于瑞典央行，挪威银行的决定也在我们的意料之中——加息25个基点至1.75% 。央行指出，虽然10月份的加息行动所带来的影响“有限”，但声明市场还没有启动更积极的价格行动周期，因为2010年的经济前景还存在很多不确定，央行还透露央行成员考虑过维持利率不变的政策。挪威央行副行长简克格斯德在随后的央行新闻发布会上表示：预期明年2月份不会进一步加息，但截至目前也不排除在央行会议上加息的可能。会后，欧元兑挪威克朗从8.4400下滑至8.3670，挪威克朗试图保住今日的涨幅，目前我们正在等待挪威失业率的公布（目前还是那个令人记忆犹新的2.6%的低点）。

今日，市场即将公布的关键事件包括美国11月零售销售额数据，预期环比上扬0.5%，前值为0.4%，该数据被认为是左右美国国内生产总值数据变化的一个主要因素。英镑兑美元目前正艰难地位于1.6200支撑位上方，10月零售销售额数据任一方向的大幅变化都有可能致使英镑兑美元突破目前的支撑位水平，跌至1.6000，或将波动区间上限扩大至1.6484。午后市场将重点关注加拿大11月核心消费者物价指数和美国11月领先指标数据。

The USD has extended gains today after yesterday’s FOMC meeting highlighted a more optimistic assessment of the US labour market. As expected, there was no change to the Fed Funds rate and the accompanying statement retained the crucial remarks that rates would stay at their “exceptionally low” levels for an ”extended period”; however the alteration to last month’s wording that was interpreted as a strong USD-positive was the claim that the decline in the labour market was “abating”. The USD move exploited EUR-negative sentiment from earlier in the session when S&P joined Fitch in cutting Greece’s credit rating and threatened to take further action unless Prime Minister George Papandreou tackled the daunting budget deficit. EURUSD’s dramatic fall throughout the Asian session has taken out major supports at 1.4480, touching a low of 1.4369.

The other major events of the previous session included central bank meetings from both the Riksbank and Norges Bank. There were no surprises at all from the Riksbank as they kept rates unchanged at 0.25% and offered very little new information to the market other than the widely expected confirmation that they would be ending their fixed rate tenders. Today we will get the latest Swedish Unemployment figures which are expected to tick slightly higher to 8.2% from 8.1% prior.

In contrast to the Riksbank, the Norges Bank wrong-footed consensus by hiking rates by 25bps to 1.75% - in line with our own predictions. They noted that the impact of the October hike had been “limited”, but the statement did however ensure that markets did not start pricing a more aggressive hiking cycle going forward by noting that the outlook for 2010 was still uncertain, and revealed that members had considered keeping rates on hold. Norges Bank Deputy Governor Qvigstad said in a subsequent press conference that the expectation was for no further rise in February, but he did not so far as to rule out an increase at that meeting. EURNOK plunged from 8.4400 to 8.3670 on the announcement, and NOK has managed to hold on to gains into today’s session where we await the release of the Norwegian Unemployment Rate (currently standing at an impressively low 2.6%).

The key events coming up in today’s session include UK Retail Sales for November which are expected to post at 0.5% MoM increase after the 0.4% reading last month; and will likely be a major catalyst of GBP direction from here. GBPUSD is currently fighting hard to remain above 1.6200 support, and a surprise either way in this release will likely determine whether we see a further collapse towards 1.6000, or whether we head back into the range for a retest of 1.6484. The afternoon session will be focused on Canadian CPI, and US Leading Indicators.