来源：亚洲外汇网
作者：Rosenstreich
今日汇评
隔夜，美国市场无重要经济数据释放，也无重要发言人发表公开讲话或其他重大新闻发生，因此，美元的货币行动从昨天一直到现在基本上没有什么变化也就显得不足为奇。亚洲股市隔夜好坏参半，尽管日经指数、恒生指数以及上证综指收盘时都略有走低，但大多数其他风险指标基本稳定，欧元兑美元依然在1.4650左右震荡巩固，而黄金也在1125美元每盎司附近震荡巩固。
隔夜，外汇市场上的重要风险事件便是澳洲央行会议纪要的释放。尽管央行的利率决定与市场预期相吻合，加息25个基点至3.75%。但今日的会议纪要内容显示，澳洲央行成员在加息决定上的一致意见并不是市场所预期的那样同样。纪要内容显示，加息决定上的支持和反对意见“大体平衡”，央行还做出这样的评论：澳洲央行已经连续在三次央行会议上做出加息决定，其货币政策立场已经发生“实质性转变，转向不太宽松的货币政策立场”。随着澳大利亚经济的持续好转（最近释放的强劲就业数据最能体现经济的改善），澳大利亚的利率水平很有可能在2010年上半年就能进一步紧缩至4.25%，但是隔夜释放的央行的会议纪要表示，并不是每次连续的会议都能做出加息决定，尽管他们已经做出了这样的开始。
展望今天的市场，预期英国11月消费者物价指数将环比上扬0.2%，同比上扬1.8%。英国央行11月通货膨胀报告显示短期内英国的通货膨胀率将会大幅上涨，因为我们已经意识到英国国内生产总值意外上扬的事件较少，特别是考虑上周五释放的生产者物价指数如此疲软的情况。欧元区和德国NEW调查报告将于今天上午释放，预期较上月略有上涨。但鉴于通货膨胀报告在过去几个月里对外汇市场的影响几乎微乎其微，我们这一次也不是很重视该数据，尽管它还是欧元兑美元的价格变化的催化剂之一—除非出现意外上涨的情况（如最近释放的美国非农就业数据和零售销售额数据意外上扬给外汇市场的影响就比较大）。
在美国市场，即将出炉的经济数据有：美国11月生产者物价指数、美国10月长期资本净流入数据、美国11月工业生产数据以及美国11月产能利用率数据。自周五以来，今天释放的这些数据对我们来说是一个新的机会，我们可以通过这些数据给市场带来的影响来重新评估美元同投资者对美国前景信心之间的新的关系。在今年的大部分时间里，外汇市场对美国经济数据的反应就是抛售美元，但因为上周释放了意外强劲的非农就业数据和零售销售额数据，我们看到市场的反应发生了重大逆转，美元不再遭遇抛售压力，而是受利好数据支撑大幅上涨。今天的美国经济数据将很有希望为我们揭示美元同风险偏好之间的关系是否会真的发生一次动态变化，但是我们认为想要突破美元目前的价格区间是不太可能的，因为市场同时还在关注着明天上午公布的联邦公开市场委员会会议。
Market Brief
The USD is largely unchanged from yesterday – unsurprising given the lack of scheduled economic releases during the US session and absence of any market moving speakers or new headlines overnight. Equity markets across Asia are mixed; although the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are heading for a lower close. Most other benchmarks of risk are also stable with EURUSD still holding onto territory around 1.4650, and gold consolidating around $1125.
The major event of the overnight session was the release of the minutes of the December RBA meeting. Although the outcome of that rate decision was in line with the market’s expectation for a hike of 25bps to 3.75%, today’s minutes reveal that the consensus among RBA members was far less clear cut than many had assumed. The minutes acknowledged that the arguments for and against the hike were “finely balanced”, and made the assessment that the three hikes over the last three meetings had the effect of “materially shifting the stance of policy to a less accommodative setting”. Given the continuing improvements in the Australian economy (most recently demonstrated by the outstanding employment data), there is likely to be further scope for tightening to 4.25% in the first half of 2010, however this latest RBA release does perhaps hint that further hikes may not materialize at every consecutive meeting as they have done at the start of the cycle.
Looking ahead to today’s session, UK CPI is expected to rise 0.2% MoM in November, bringing the annual rate up to 1.8%. The BoE’s November Inflation Report has already braced markets for a sharp uptick in UK inflation in the short term, and as such we feel there is limited scope for GBP to rally on an upside surprise, especially considering the softer PPI figures delivered on Friday. Eurozone and German ZEW surveys due this morning are expected to decrease slightly from last month’s readings, but given the minimal impact that this report has had on FX markets in the last few months we would put little emphasis on this reading as a driver for EURUSD – unless of course there is an exceptional surprise either way (for example, of the magnitude and impact of the latest US non-farm payrolls and retail sales data).
The upcoming US session will include a number of US economic releases; including Producer Price Index, Net Long-Term TIC Flows, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization. This will be the first opportunity we have had since Friday to assess whether there is indeed a new relationship between the USD and investor sentiment about the US outlook. For most of this year, the FX reaction on good US data was to sell the USD, but after the surprise non-farm payrolls just over a week ago, and retail sales on Friday, we saw USD strength on significantly better than expected numbers. Today’s US data will hopefully clarify whether there is indeed a shift in the dynamic of the USD and risk appetite, but there is unlikely to be a significant break out in currency ranges as markets will be keeping one eye on the upcoming FOMC meeting tomorrow.
