来源：环球外汇网

隔夜，亚洲股市好坏参半，欧元兑美元以及黄金的走势基本上已经离开了我们昨天上午看到的风险基准水平（并分别报价1.4725美元和1130美元每盎司），然而，自市场公布新西兰储备银行最近的利率决定以及利好的澳大利亚就业数据之后，高收益性货币纽元和澳元就大幅走高。在新西兰储备银行会议上，央行决定将官方现金利率继续维持在2.50%的水平上不变，该水平同市场预期的一致，但此次的声明态度明显变得强硬，如，声明中提到“如果经济继续复苏，情况可能会支持央行在2010年中开始取消货币政策刺激性”。市场可以将该声明解释为新西兰央行是在暗示或将提前执行紧缩货币政策行动，该消息释放之后，纽元兑美元因此迅速大幅上行，从0.7120 上涨至0.7210；而纽元的货币需求也因此继续推高纽元兑美元在今天上午一路走高至0.7274的高点。与此同时，另一重大新闻事件是澳大利亚11月的失业率已经萎缩至5.7%，前值是5.8%，预期值是5.9%。澳大利亚就业数据的显著改善也明显影响到外汇市场的行情；11月澳大利亚就业人口增加3.12万人，而预期值仅增加0.5万人，该利好数据提振澳元兑美元从0.9110 上扬至0.9171高点；然而截至亚洲收盘时刻，澳元兑美元的获利表现只维持了一段时间，今日该货币对获利回吐，目前报价0.9150。

在欧洲市场，有两件同等重要的风险事件发生，即两大央行即将释放利率决定。首先亮相的将是瑞士央行的利率决定，很可能保持在0.00%-0.75%范围内不变，但市场更为关注的是该央行就未来的刺激政策在立场上是否会有所变化。特别是，当瑞士央行对瑞士12月通货膨胀的评估有所上调而其消费者物价指数年比值8个月来首次出现上涨，央行对此将如何说明显得非常重要。通货膨胀的威胁不再那么令人担忧，央行决策者可能认为没有必要采取外汇干预措施以此来削弱瑞士法郎，因此任由市场来操作美元兑瑞郎以及纽元兑瑞郎的走势。

第二个出炉的就是英国央行的利率决定，市场预期央行将维持利率在0.5%的水平不变；但市场觉得所有的风险仍系于量化宽松政策的命运，以及货币政策委员会是否会扩大量化宽松政策的规模——或释放相反的信号——即维持目前的方案不变。英镑兑美元目前位于敏感区域，靠近1.6250重要支撑位（以及头肩线的颈部），因此此次会议决定对英镑信心的影响将从此刻就开始左右该货币的价格行动。

在今日所有的财经日历中，当天即将释放的其他数据包括：挪威和瑞典的消费者物价指数，以及晚些时候的美国贸易收支和债权数据。

The mixed performance of Asian equities overnight has left our risk benchmarks of EURUSD and gold at virtually the same levels we saw yesterday morning (1.4725 and $1130 respectively), however there has been a notable outperformance from the high-yielding NZD and AUD after the latest RBNZ rate decision and outstanding Australian jobs data. At the RBNZ meeting, the OCR was left unchanged at 2.50% as expected, but there was a distinctly more hawkish tone to the statement – including the line that “if the economy continues to recover, conditions may support beginning to remove monetary stimulus around the middle of 2010”. This has been interpreted by the market as implying an earlier schedule for tightening monetary policy, and as such, NZDUSD rallied from 0.7120 levels to 0.7210 in the hour following the release; and demand has continued to drive the pair to 0.7274 highs this morning. Meanwhile the other major antipodean piece of news was Australia’s Unemployment Rate which shrank to 5.7% in November – down from last month’s 5.8% reading and 0.2% lower than analyst forecasts. The absolute change in employment also made for impressive reading; with 31.2k jobs added in November against estimates for just 5k. AUDUSD shot upwards from 0.9110 to highs of 0.9171; however a period of profit-taking towards the end of the Asian session has meant the gains have been pared to 0.9150 levels currently.

There is likely to be an equally eventful European session ahead with two further major central bank rate decisions due. First up will be the SNB who are likely to keep their 0.00%-0.75% band unchanged – however the markets will be more focused on whether there is any change in stance on the future of stimulus measures. In particular, it will be important to interpret the central bank’s assessment of the recent uptick in inflation in Dec that saw YoY CPI figures emerge from negative territory for the first time in 8 months. Without the imminent threat of deflation, policy makers may no longer feel the need to engage in currency intervention to weaken the CHF, thereby allowing the market to wholly dictate where USDCHF and EURCHF trade.

Next up will be the BoE who are also anticipated to hold rates steady at 0.50%; but here it seems that the risks will be almost entirely hinged on the fate of QE, and whether MPC members deem it necessary to expand – or conversely signal an end to – the current programme. GBPUSD currently lies in vulnerable territory around 1.6250 major support (and the neckline of a significant head-and-shoulders chart formation), so the effect of this meeting on GBP sentiment will be pivotal to the currency’s direction from here.

Amongst these events, the other releases of the day include CPI from Norway and Sweden, and later the US Trade Balance and claims data.