来源：亚洲外汇网
作者：Rosenstreich
今日汇评
上周五释放的远好于预期的美国非农就业数据所引发的积极情绪截至昨日终显平静，这是因为美联储主席伯南克昨日对美国经济前景预期释放了他一贯的谨慎言论，该言论不断让市场情绪冷静下来，还将市场之前认为美联储或将采取紧缩政策的想法给扼杀了。尽管美国失业率已经从10.2％下降至10.0％，但他仍然采用“疲软”一词来形容劳动力市场，他还补充说，美国经济的恢复正面临“强大逆风”。联储主席伯南克本次讲话所使用的修辞及其温和的基调对市场来讲并不新鲜，但鉴于上周五释放的利好就业数据，市场不得不重新审视他们之前的总结是否已经实现，以及他们对就业数据的反应是否已经调整过来。在外汇市场，昨日就发生了一些外汇反方向运动，美元走低，包括黄金在内的大多数风险资产昨日收盘时基本持平。至关重要的是，昨日尽管欧元兑美元在早盘中就突破了1.4800，但我们仍未能突破早前的波动区间。今天上午，该货币对又反弹至1.4840，黄金反弹至1160美元每盎司,，而白银反弹至$18.25美元每盎司.
隔夜，亚洲股市走跌，日本的决策者释放了最新的财政刺激方案的规模。7.2万亿日元的一揽子刺激方案规模略大于市场所预期的规模，因此日元并没有遭遇疯狂抛售。今天，因市场兑美国非农就业数据的迟后反应发生扭转，致使美元兑日元走低至89.00；但我们仍觉得压力重重，因为日本经济前景堪忧，而且日本央行及日本财务省对强劲日元均持反对态度，这意味日元兑美元很难收复之前的失地。
虽然昨天的财经日历相当精简，但今天的稀疏数据仍值得我们关注，如定于欧洲市场上午公布的英国10月工业生产数据和10月制造业产出数据，这两个数据是本周四英国央行会议召开前最后一批值得关注的关键数据。昨日上午，受美元强劲抛售的影响，英镑兑美元突破1.6485，下一个下行重要支撑位目标是1.6272。在德国，同样也有工业生产数据公布，但鉴于德国经济数据最近很少影响到欧元兑美元（该货币对现在受投资者对美元信心的支配）的行动，我们认为此次的数据同样不可能影响到欧元兑美元的走势。
今天下午的关键事件将是加拿大央行的利率决定，市场普遍预期央行将维持利率在0.25%不变。此外，市场还预期央行将宣布将目前的利率政策维持至2010年第二季度末，因为加拿大的消费者物价指数仍比去年同期放缓0.1％，远低于央行的通胀目标。
Market Brief
The commotion that followed Friday’s much better than expected Non Farm Payrolls was somewhat sedated yesterday as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke kept his cautious outlook on the US economy, and reined in market expectations that had run wild with the idea of early Fed tightening. Despite US Unemployment ticking down from 10.2% to 10.0%, he still described the labour market as ‘weak’, and added that the economy faces “formidable headwinds” in its recovery. The rhetoric used and the dovish tone he took were nothing new, but given that this account came after Friday’s employment data, markets were forced to reassess whether the conclusions they had reached and their reaction post-payrolls had been justified. FX markets saw a quick reversal some of the day’s earlier moves, sending the USD lower, and most risk assets including gold back up towards flat on the day. Crucially then, despite EURUSD taking out stops through 1.4800 earlier in the session, we failed to get the close below that level that would have given a solid confirmation of a breakout from the prior range. This morning, the pair has drifted back up to benign 1.4840 levels, gold has settled above $1160, and silver is trading back around $18.25.
Overnight, Asian equities traded lower and Japanese policymakers revealed the size of the latest fiscal stimulus package. The JPY 7.2 trillion package was only slightly larger than the market had anticipated, and consequently the JPY has not been sold as aggressively as one might have expected on a larger injection of stimulus. USDJPY has drifted lower to 89.00 levels today predominantly on a reversal of the post-payroll reaction; but we feel that the weight of the challenges that lie ahead for the Japanese economy, and both the MoF and BoJ’s vocal opposition to a strong JPY, mean that JPY will struggle to regain previous ground against the USD.
Although yesterday’s data calendar was rather lean, today we have a few more releases to consider: The UK Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output figures are due mid-morning in the European session, and will be one of the last significant data prints ahead of Thursday’s BoE meeting. After GBPUSD took out the 1.6485 levels yesterday morning on strong selling from model accounts, the next downside level and major support to watch is 1.6272. There will also be Industrial Production data released out of Germany, but given how little German data has affected EURUSD lately (which has instead been driven by USD sentiment), we feel this is unlikely to move the markets.
The highlight of the afternoon will be the BoC Rate decision; where the consensus is for rates to be kept on hold once again at 0.25%. Furthermore, it is expected that the commitment to maintain current policy rates will be affirmed until the end of Q2 2010, as Canadian CPI is still subdued at 0.1% YoY – well below the BoC inflation target.
