今日汇评

昨日，美国股市收盘下跌近1个百分点。今日，在美国劳动力数据释放前夕，美元实力有所增强。风险偏好略有走低，只因过去48个小时，我们对风险相关交易的抛售情况不够重视。盘中，石油和黄金也下跌了约1％。欧元兑美元的交投区间为1.5037-1.5141，美元兑日元的交投区间为87.35-88.50。亚洲区域指标好坏参半，其中，上证综指上升1.60%。

昨日，欧洲央行迈出了非常规的措施的第一步，并试图确保银行不会囤积因之前的12个月期再融资操作而产生的过剩资金。总的来说，欧洲央行的语气听起来比我们和市场预期的要更为强硬。尽管有部分措施符合市场预期，但欧元兑美元还是因为投资者得到了和预期一样的结果而受挫，但受挫幅度较为温和。欧洲央行行长特里谢强调，12个月期再融资操作可辨利率的引进在未来不会发生改变，他还补充说“任何人都不应过去强调退出政策的步伐”。

关于美国11月非农就业数据，无疑是今日的重中之重，我们预期非农就业人数下降9万人且非农就业率为10.2%不变。但市场的预期值分别为：就业人数下降12.5万人，就业率为10.2%。据美国11月的就业报告，因季节性因素的原因，数据或将上调，我们认为这是可能的也是必然的事情。当谈到美国数据时，有时候意外上扬也会不利于美元。对于非农就业数据，如果意外上扬，则利好诸如澳元兑日元的风险相关货币对。加拿大11月劳工数据定于同美国的非农就业数据同一天释放，预期加拿大失业率将维持在8.6％不变，但就业数据会增加1.5万人，前值是增加4.32万人。在其他数据方面，加拿大11月Ivey采购经理人指数预计将略有下降，将至60.0。

考虑到国会召开的美联储具有争议性的改革事件，在美联储主席贝南克的连任听证会上，有几个显著的不同于平日的声音出现。其结果仍然不出市场所料：美国参议院很可能会批准贝南克的连任。概括来讲，主席伯南克表示，没有什么可以改变货币政策的前景。

在新兴市场国家，惠誉国际评级周四将土耳其主权信用评级上调两档，至BB+级（仅低于投资级别）。该评级结果对市场来说并不意外——因为早在10月份，惠誉就给予土耳其“积极考察”信用评级，在此之后市场一直期待一个评级的上调。然而，土耳其里拉和土耳其股市双双上扬的消息，已经表明土耳其主权信用评级的上调早已是预期之中的事情。

Market Brief

Risk appetite was muted in Asian session ahead of the US labor data. European equity markets are broadly lower, following Asia's lukewarm session. Overall, we expect a quiet morning with thin volumes and tight ranges. Oil and gold were 1% lower, while EURUSD consolidated between 1.5040-1.5140 and USDJPY traded between 88.00-88.50. Perhaps the only FX chart of interest would be the USDMXN, which finally broke support at 12.810 putting the next significant level at 12.000. We are seeing leveraged accounts building long USDJPY positions, as rumor swirl over Japanese government potentially selling US treasuries and theories over intervention. While we don’t subscribe to this specific market gossip, we do expect the JPY to continue to depreciate.

The main event of the day is clearly US NFP. Markets are expecting a -125k drop and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 10.2%. We are slightly more optimistic (due to seasonal factors and recent encouraging economic data) and are expecting a figure south of -100k. Recently, it has become very difficult to gauge the markets reaction through the USD. Sometimes the greenback responds negatively to positive news while other times the reverse. Trading specially risk correlated crosses, such as the AUDJPY, hold a more direct cause and effect relationship.

Also of note will be the economic data out of Canada . The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 8.6% and 15k net change in employment. And in other data, the Ivey PMI is expected to decrease slightly to 60.0. The encouraging news should help the USDCAD focus back on to 1.0345 support.