今日汇评

因迪拜债务危机已经不复存在，而全球经济复苏仍处于正常轨道，致使亚洲股市连续三日直线上扬获益。与之相应的是，疲弱的美元推动欧元兑美元重新测试1.5100水平，最值得注意的是，美元的疲弱更是推动黄金上破1200美元每盎司的心理关口，触及1215美元每盎司的历史新高。

昨天，欧元区11月制造业采购经理人指数终值基本好于预期，而美国11月ISM制造业指数却令人失望；然而，对外汇市场影响最为重大的不是这些数据，而是来自大西洋两岸相关政策决策者的意见。欧元集团主席容克表示，迪拜债务危机对欧元区的影响极其甚微，而美联储理事普洛瑟则表示，美元最近虽有所贬值，但并不值得担忧；可以将该现象解释为在金融危机期间内，美元流入出现反方向的流动。综合两大指数和大量决策者讲话考虑，我们认为在未来几周内，欧元兑美元将继续升值，截至2009年年底，该货币对极有可能触及1.5200的高点。

与此同时，美元兑日元昨日回落至605.50上方，之后有关日元升值干预的投机心理略有冷却。市场仍然在消化新的流动性措施的影响，但我们仍然对为遏制日元走势的相关特别货币行动持谨慎态度。

展望今天下午即将释放的经济数据，上午的市场就突出了挪威采购经理人指数、英国11月建筑业采购经理人指数以及欧元区10月生产者价格指数。在这三个数据中，最有可能影响到外汇市场数据是英国11月建筑业采购经理人指数，因市场猜测英国的银行可能会受到迪拜债务危机的沉重拖累，致使英镑最近一直受压。昨日释放的不如预期的英国11月制造业采购经理人指数并没有给英镑的前景带来多大改善，如果今日的11月建筑业采购经理人指数也出现不如预期的情况，将无疑会给英镑的前景带来严重的消极影响。今天晚上将公布的经济数据较少，但我们重点关注美国11月ADP就业人数变化，因为该书将将为周五的非农就业数据提供一些数据指引。

Market Brief

Asian equities have gained for a third straight day as worries over Dubai’s debt crisis have dissipated and the global recovery remains on track. The corresponding USD weakness has led EURUSD to retest 1.5100 levels, and most notably, pushed gold emphatically through the $1200 psychological barrier to touch highs of $1215.75.

Yesterday’s European PMI data was broadly better than expected, whilst the US ISM Manufacturing disappointed; however the most significant drivers for FX markets were policy-maker comments from both sides of the Atlantic. EU President Juncker reassured markets that the likely knock-on effect of Dubai’s debt problems on the Eurozone were minimal, whilst the Fed’s Plosser remarked that the USD’s recent depreciation was not a concern; explaining that it was in part a reversal of the USD inflows seen during the financial crisis. Both sets of data and rhetoric reaffirm in our minds the case for further EURUSD appreciation in the weeks to come, and it seems highly plausible that we see 1.5200 by year end.

Meanwhile the speculation about JPY intervention seems to have cooled marginally from this time yesterday after USDJPY’s reversion back above 87.00. Markets are still absorbing the implications of the new liquidity facility, but we remain vigilant for any new headlines concerning the currency specifically to take our cue on JPY direction from here.

Looking ahead to today, the morning highlights include Norwegian PMI, UK PMI Construction and Eurozone PPI. Of the three, the most likely to have any impact on the FX markets is likely to be UK PMI; as GBP has been under pressure recently amid speculation that UK banks may be heavy exposed to Dubai debt. The large miss in UK PMI Manufacturing yesterday did little to improve the prospects for GBP, and another miss today could be severely negative on GBP sentiment. The afternoon’s schedule is light, but we look to the ADP Employment Report out of the US to provide an early insight into the more significant Non Farm Payroll numbers on Friday.