来源：亚洲外汇网
作者；Rosenstreich
今日汇评
正如市场所预测的，澳洲联储隔夜决定升息25个基点;这是澳洲联储连续三次加息25个基点，使得其现金利率的目标已上调至3.75％。尽管利率有所上升，但澳元兑美元依然下跌至0.9180，这是因为澳洲联储主席史蒂文斯表示，最近的“实质性调整”，其借贷成本足以令通胀保持在既定目标范围内，该讲话也许暗示，澳大利亚央行现在可以暂停任何进一步的紧缩政策活动。因在2010年2月份到来之前，澳洲联储委员会不会再次举行货币政策会议，在这接近年底之际，澳元投资者更倾向于获利回吐并清算外汇交易，如此看来，澳元存在风险，市场预期其前景将下行；但是，澳大利亚的经济前景还是健康的，这足以保证其关键技术水平维持在0.8900这个安全水平之上。
隔夜还有其他重要新闻，正值日本央行外汇干预传言即将成为现实之际，日本央行突然宣布将召开不在安排之列的特别政策会议。该消息释放后，美元兑日元迅速攀升至87.53高点，但之后因美元的大幅抛售，该货币对又回落至86这个中等水平。日本央行声明细节重申之前会议的要点;利率保持在0.10％不变，政府债券月度购买额维持在1.8万亿日元不变；日本央行还表示将继续尽最大努力克服通货紧缩。因今日的日本市场缺乏其他特别新闻事件，现在的重点就转向定于欧洲中部时间为09:00召开的新闻发布会，但令我们感到担忧的是日元多头的稳定性，因为目前很多投资者很快就会再次抛售美元兑日元货币对，而这将令日元再次走高。
亚洲股市已经视日元升值干预的可能性为日经指数走向的积极动力，而该地区的其他指标也跟随日本股市走高。风险偏好所带来的经济影响也随之积极推动黄金走高至1180美元每盎司上方，欧元兑美元也成功突破其区间上限1.5040。今天下午，我们即将获知欧元区11月制造业采购经理人指数以及欧元区10月失业率数据，虽然我们不会轻视这些数据推动欧元兑美元的价格行动的能力，但即便这些数据出现意外上扬或意外下滑，我们认为其影响还不足以推动欧元兑美元突破其技术区间。下午的交易市场即将释放的数据还包括：美国ISM制造业指数、美国10月营建支出数据、以及美国10月待售新屋销售数据，但这些数据所产生的重大影响市场同样不可足以左右市场对美元的看法，相反，我们会将注意力放在股市一整天的表现上，以此来判定外汇市场的进一步走向。
Market Brief
As forecast, the RBA hiked by 25bps overnight; the third rate rise in as many months, bringing the cash rate target to 3.75%. Despite the rise in interest rates, AUDUSD dropped from just shy of 0.9180 levels down to lows of 0.9106 as RBA Governor Glenn Stevens indicated that the recent “material adjustments” to borrowing costs may be sufficient to keep inflation within target, perhaps hinting that the Australian central bank could now pause any further tightening. With the board not due to re-convene until February and AUD vulnerable to year-end profit-taking and trade liquidation, it appears the risks to the currency are now biased to the downside; however the healthy outlook for the Australian economy should ensure that key technical support around 0.8900 remains safe.
In other overnight news, the BoJ called an unscheduled policy meeting during the Japanese session that sent markets into a flurry of speculation that JPY intervention may soon materialize. USDJPY experienced a rapid rally up to 87.53 highs on the news, but has since sold off markedly back to mid-86 levels. Much of the detail in the statement echoed previous meetings; rates were kept at 0.10%, monthly government bond purchases were maintained at 1.8tn JPY, and the BoJ pledged to do its best to beat deflation. Given the lack of extraordinary headlines here, focus now turns to the press conference scheduled for 09:00 CET; but what is peculiar in our minds is the unflappability of JPY bulls in the market, as many have been quick to re-sell USDJPY into the rally higher.
Asian equity markets have perceived the possibility of JPY intervention as a positive force for the Nikkei, and other indices in the region have followed Japanese equities higher. The positive influence on risk appetite has consequently propelled gold back above $1180 levels and EURUSD back towards the upper end of its range around 1.5040. Coming up this morning we will get a raft of European PMI data as well as the Eurozone Unemployment rate, and although we would not discount the ability of these numbers to move EURUSD if there are upward/downward surprises, it seems unlikely the readings will provide the impetus to break technical ranges. The afternoon session includes US ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending and Pending New Home Sales, but again, none of these releases have high enough profile to materially affect the market’s view of the USD, and instead we would look to the performance of equity markets throughout the day to dictate the broader direction of FX markets.
