来源：亚洲外汇网

作者：Rosenstreich

今日汇评

随着有关迪拜债务危机事件的进一步详情的释放，全球股市今日继续大幅下滑; 风险偏好大幅降温，拖累资产类别全面走低。亚洲股指下行了3至5个百分点，今日美国公共假期结束，美国股票期货市场走向同样令人担忧。美元反弹，推动黄金回落至1140美元每盎司，原油价格跌破75美元每盎司的重要支撑位水平，欧元兑美元回撤至1.4850，距前两周确定的震荡区间下限1.4800的下滑支撑位仅50点。伴随着本周二风险资产兑美元的货币对纷纷突破重要关口，市场日益感觉这是对在重要技术水平位附近出触发止损的一次练习，而不是对资产真正需求的突破。美元交叉盘之前区间震荡模式的长期持续表明市场清楚这些关键支撑位并很可能下了止损订单，看似在充满利好数据和低流动性的外汇市场中，交易者也没有其他的波动来源。

交易走向唯一表现例外的货币对是美元兑日元，隔夜已下降到84.83，创14年以来的新低点；因此激起了另一番言论，日本决策者有意干预汇市阻止日元强势。日本财务大臣藤井裕久今天表示，如果日本当局认为日元的强势对日本经济的复苏构成了威胁，日本当局或将联合美国以及欧洲当局一起干预外汇市场。他的讲话立刻将美元兑日元推向86.00以上，但该货币对的下滑趋势仍旧坚固，财务大臣藤井裕久的讲话还不足以抵消美元兑日元的熊市动力。

昨日的经济数据有限，欧元区三个月货币供应量数据令市场失望。可以预见的是，信贷情况仍然紧缩，因为货币供应仅增长0.3%，远低于市场预期的0.8％。私营非金融性企业的贷款数据下降了1.2％，而与之相反的是，家庭贷款数据有所改善，从原来的-0.3%提高至-0.1%。德国11月消费者物价指数差于预期，实际值为上扬0.3％（预期值为上扬0.5％），但仍较前值有所改善。

今天，看似直至迪拜债务事件能有一个圆满的结论达成，风险厌恶情绪的重要性将高于其他任何经济数据。但是，未来的仍有一些重要数据如期释放，包括：瑞典的国内生产总值数据和零售销售额数据，欧元区消费者信心指数和瑞士KOF领先指标。

Market Brief

The slump in equities continues today as further details of Dubai World’s debt burden come to the fore; dragging risk sentiment lower across asset classes. Asian indices are down 3-5% across the board and US equity futures point to an equally unsavoury open after yesterday’s public holiday. The USD rebound has caused gold to collapse to $1140 levels, oil below major support at $75, and EURUSD back toward 1.4850 levels; a mere 50 pips away from the 1.4800 support that defined the lower end of its range in the prior two weeks. Increasingly, the break out in risk assets against the USD on Tuesday feels like it was an exercise in triggering stop losses around major technical levels more than a bona fide break out on genuine demand. The longevity of the previous ranges meant the market was well aware of the key supports and likely build-up of stop loss orders, and it seems that the uninspiring data calendar coupled with light liquidity has meant traders had very little alternative sources of volatility.

The one exception to the pattern is USDJPY which has dropped to fresh 14-year lows overnight at 84.83; igniting another flurry of rhetoric from Japanese policy makers in a bid to temper JPY strength. Finance Minister Fujii today indicated that he may contact US and European authorities about the possibility of coordinated currency intervention if it was deemed that JPY strength posed a threat to Japan’s recovery. His remarks had the desired effect by pushing USDJPY back above 86.00 levels; but the trend remains resolutely downwards and it is unlikely his words will be sufficient to permanently ward off USDJPY bears.

Of the limited data we did get yesterday; Eurozone M3 figures disappointed. Predictably, credit conditions remain tight as the broader measure of money showed growth of just 0.3% against consensus estimates for a rise of 0.8%. Loans to private non-financial companies declined to at a rate of 1.2% whhile in contrast, loans to households improved from -0.3% to -0.1%. German CPI for November came in weaker than expected at 0.3% YoY ( 0.5% expected) but the reading was still an improvement from the month prior.

For today, it seems that risk aversion is going to reign supreme over other data releases until a satisfactory conclusion is reached about the Dubai issue; however events coming up include Swedish GDP and Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence and Swiss KOF Leading Indicator.