来源：亚洲外汇网

作者：Rosenstreich

今日汇评

美元交叉盘在昨日美国市场收盘之际终于突破区间震荡模式；欧元兑美元收盘突破1.5100的关键技术水平，经过最后的快速强劲挣扎，突破阻力位，奋力上扬至1.5140。美元兑瑞郎同样决然下滑，途径1.0000，触及0.9918的低点；瑞士央行外汇干预传闻这个强大的动力，迫使欧元瑞士法郎急剧下滑，最终突破了下跌支撑位1.5080，触及1.5012的低点。然而，尽管下滑欧元瑞士法郎的支撑位已经被打破，但该货币对在今日的欧洲市场开盘之初就积极上扬，从头天的低点上扬至1.5133高点。瑞士央行大量买进外国货币传言的背后，似乎暗示着另一轮的瑞士央行外汇干预行动即将开始。

昨天释放的美国数据五花八门，但总的来说是积极的。十月份耐用品订单数据明显不如预期，实际值为下滑0.6%（预期值为上扬0.5％），九月份该值从1.0％大幅向上修正至2.0％；十月份个人消费开支数据大致符合或高于预期，上周首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数较预期中值进一步下跌；美国十一月份密歇根消费者信心指数为67.4（高于预期的67.0）。继周一释放了大超预期的十月份现房销售数据之后，昨日又释放了较上月进一步向上修正的新屋销售数据，月比增长6.2%。美元略受支撑，从低点处反弹，但由于基本面并没有第二轮利好数据有所好转，美元的反弹能力也不是很突出；昨日下午美元交叉盘虽然打破了一系列的技术位水平，但其反弹能力仍很脆弱。

隔夜，亚洲股市已回吐了昨天的大量涨幅，大多数货币兑美元也已从高点上回落下来。黄金也从新高1195美元每盎司处回撤至1190美元每盎司的水平处，但在所有主要资产类别中，黄金似乎是最有可能威胁到美元进一步攀升的因素。日本央行会议纪要集中讨论通货紧缩问题，致使美元兑日元隔夜大幅下跌至86.3的新低水平处。通讯社引用央行官员的话称，日本央行正试图阻止美元兑日元的下跌趋势; 财政大臣藤井裕久表示，他正在密切关注汇市的走向；日本政府发言人平野博文表示，日本有可能采取“适当”的行动来应对日元的升值。早些时候，当美元兑日元在78.20水平附近交投时，财政部副部长田曾表示：“我们不考虑现在干预外汇”，但自自那以后，日本政府负责经济事务的高级官员古川元久补充说，如果日元上涨过快，政府会考虑外汇干预政策的。

因今天上午释放的数据稀疏（仅有德国地区和国家消费者物价指数，欧元区三个月货币供应量数据以及挪威失业数据），加之美国因感恩节休市可能会影响到下午的市场，我们认为外汇市场在很大程度上将受技术因素和价格定位的驱动，而投资者在余下的交易时段内很可能热衷于利用市场上一些零散的流动性来获利。

Market Brief

Final confirmation of the break out in currency ranges came late in the US session yesterday; as EURUSD ensured a daily close through the key 1.5100 technical level, after a quick thrust through final resistance triggered stops all the way up to 1.5140 levels. USDCHF similarly pushed decisively down through 1.0000 to touch lows of 0.9918; and the momentum was powerful enough to force EURCHF to finally breach downside support at 1.5080, touching lows of 1.5012. However despite the break down, the start of the European session today has seen an aggressive move all the way from the lows to 1.5133 highs. Rumours circulate of Swiss banks behind the buying, and it seems to bear the hallmarks of another round of SNB intervention.

Yesterday’s plethora of US data was generally positive; although this month’s Durable Goods Orders markedly missed forecasts with a -0.6% reading (+0.5% expected), the September numbers were revised up sharply from 1.0% to 2.0%. PCE measures were broadly in line or higher than forecast, both initial and continuing jobless claims fell further than estimates, and U.Mich Consumer Confidence came out at 67.4 (higher than the 67.0 forecast). Following the impressive Existing Home Sales on Monday, New Home Sales also smashed estimates at 6.2% MoM, and there were upward revisions to last month’s data. The USD gleaned a little support from the lows, but arguably little about the fundamental backdrop has or will change on better second tier data; and the mild USD rebound during the afternoon could very easily have been frustration at the lack of follow-through on currency moves after technical break-outs.

Overnight, Asian equities have given back a lot of yesterday’s gains, and most currencies have pared back from their highs against the USD. Gold has also retraced from new $1195 highs to $1190 levels, but of all the major asset classes, it seems to be the most likely to threaten another surge higher. The BoJ Minutes focused on deflationary concern; a problem that will be exacerbated by the overnight fall in USDJPY to 86.30 new lows. Officials have hit the newswires in earnest to try and stem the declines; with Finance Minister Fujii saying he is watching FX moves closely, and government spokesman Hirano saying Japan may take ‘appropriate’ action on the rising JPY. Earlier, while USDJPY was trading around 78.20 levels, Deputy Finance Minister Noda had stated “we are not considering intervention right now”, but since then, Senior Vice Minister for the Economy Furukawa has weighed in to add that the government would be concerned if the JPY rose too rapidly.

With sparse data expected this morning (German regional and national CPI readings, Eurozone M3, Norway Unemployment), and the US Thanksgiving holiday likely to affect the afternoon session, we expect FX markets to be largely driven by technical factors and positioning; it is likely stop-hunters will be keen to take advantage of the patchy liquidity as the day goes on.