来源：亚洲外汇网
作者：Rosenstreich
今日汇评
欧洲央行行长特里谢上周末宣布，将收紧银行在借贷操作中利用资产支持证券(ABS)作为抵押品的评级要求。这标志欧洲央行自金融危机爆发以来，第一次迈出了紧缩政策道路的第一步。美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长詹姆斯·布拉德今日表示，美联储应将MBS购买计划延长至2010年3月之后，该讲话致使美元走软，黄金走出新高。但他强调，美国联邦公开市场委员会尚未就此事作出具体决定，他只是发达个人意见：如果购买计划的速度能放慢的话，他支持将购买计划的期限加以延长。布拉德目前还不是美联储公开市场委员会的投票委员，但他在即将来临的2010年1月就可以成为具备充分投票权的委员，因而他的讲话是非常重要的。在亚洲市场，欧元兑美元在1.4833至1.4947的区间内交投，金价攀升至1165.06美元每盎司。有趣的是，虽然大宗商品货币普遍强劲，但澳元却未能真正上扬，与其他商品货币的走势出现分歧。
在澳大利亚，10月新车销售月比上升3.7%，销量连续第三个月上升。虽然该数据本身并不重要，但该利好数据能为我们提供进一步的证据，证明澳大利亚经济能承受起在12月1日的澳大利亚央行会议上再次升息25个基点的决定。
伴随着几位美联储成员相继发表公开讲话，美国联邦市场公开委员会即将释放会议纪要和美国国内生产总值的第二次预期值，以及价值1200亿美元的国债标售计划，美国的利率就成为本周外汇市场波动的潜在因素。”美联储理事布拉德（2010年1月起就成为具备投票权的委员）已经表明了自己的意见，上周日他在接受道琼斯采访时就表示，美联储对将美国的低利率延长至更长时间的提议持温和态度，但他补充说：“他希望资产购买计划能够在2010年第一季度(原定终止日期)后持续下去。”对投资者而言，美元的市场利率成为其关注的重点，因为美联储的各种各样的资产收购计划将纷纷结束，美国在2010年或将调高利率。
我们认为，资产购买延长计划有利于高风险资产，但不利于美元，因为这表明美联储将继续承担风险反弹的影响，使美元的资产流动性过剩。本周即将释放11月联邦市场公开会议员的会议纪要，纪要将为我们提供具体的委员投票决定，以及指明在何种条件下可以将低利率维持至“更长一段时间”，将2000亿美元的机构债券的购买计划规模削减至1750亿美元。
欧洲央行行长特里谢今天将再次发表公开讲话，但在此之前，我们将获知的重要经济数据有11月德国和欧元区的制造业采购经理人指数。预期，德国和欧元区的制造业指数将分别逐步上扬至51.5（前值为51.0）和51.3（前值是50.7）。10月美国成屋销售量月比增长2.3%，9月该值为月比增长9.4%。本周的重点将是周三释放的美国2010年第三季度国内生产总值数据，预期将季比增长2.9%。
Market Brief
After a brief pause, risk appetite seem to have returned in Asian trading. Regional equities were broadly higher, with only the Nikkei lagging. Gold surged to $1165.30oz on growing concern the Fed will maintain stimulus measures. The EURUSD traded up to 1.4950, while the USDJPY fell to 88.60. Surprisingly, AUDUSD failed to see a sustained rally on the back of a weaker greenback and commodity appreciation, as the AUD and precious metals continue to diverge. The root of the markets concern over the Fed policy was comments by St. Louis Fed President Bullard, that said he would be in favor of extending the Fed's MBS buying program, which is expected to expire in March 2010. Bullard stressed that the FOMC had not made any decisions and he will not become a full voting member till January. In an interview with Dow Jones on Sunday, Bullard sounded ultra dovish, stating the Fed should keep rates low for an extended period, but added that “… would prefer to keep the central bank's asset buying program active beyond its current cut off date…” Speculation on the extensions of Fed asset purchases should be good for risk appetite and negative for the USD. In our minds, the price action seen today should be the theme for the odd holiday shortened, low volume, week with the USD on a back footing and EM, carry and commodity currencies appreciating.
Over the weekend, ECB President Trichet stated that the ECB will be adjusting eligibility criteria of the ABS collateral it will accept early next year. While the slight tightening will most probably have no real noticeable effect on liquidly and rates, it does mark the first step on the path of unwinding emergency policies initiated during the financial crisis.
In Australia, vehicle sales rose for the third consecutive month by 3.1% m/m. While not a critical number, on its own, we believe that combined with the growing body of evidence pointing to and a sturdy domestic economy ready for the RBA to raising rates by another 25bp on Dec 1st.
This week, US rates will be a probable source of volatility, with a few Fed speakers taking the podium (which caused plenty of activity last week), the release of the FOMC minutes, 2nd estimate of US GDP, and around $120bn of Treasury bond auctions. Today is a somewhat light event calendar with flash November manufacturing PMIs from both Germany and the Eurozone and the US Existing homes sales. ECB's Trichet and SNB Roth will also be speaking today.
