来源：亚洲外汇网
作者：Rosenstreich
今日汇评
今日，黄金类资产再次大放光芒，收益胜出其他各种资产类别，创出1153美元每盎司的新高，截至今日，黄金11月的累积涨幅竟高达10.2%。伴随着黄金的这种积极表现，大多数主要货币和新兴市场货币兑美元也同比上扬，虽然在程度上不那么令人印象深刻，但突出了黄金与美元相关性的最近解体，而股票市场的整体表现较为平淡。
昨天的重大新闻事件是英国央行会议纪要的释放。会议纪要显示，在扩大250亿英镑的量化宽松政策规模的投票问题上，委员们分成了三个阵营。其中有七位委员投票同意将量化宽松政策规模扩大250亿英镑，但委员会成员戴尔则倾向于维持债券购买政策规模于1750亿英镑不变，而委员会成员大卫迈尔斯则要求将量化宽松规模扩大400亿英镑至2150亿英镑。上述的第三个数据似乎有点不太合适，看似货币政策委员会成员迈尔斯正在试图提议一个足以确保资产购买率将保持不变的扩大规模，而事实上促使英镑大幅反弹的因素之一是上次央行会议上的250亿英镑的扩大规模提议，该数据标志资产收购步伐将会有所放缓，除此之外，还有可能暗示刺激政策策略即将结束。自会议纪要中有关投票的详情被市场获知后，英镑兑美元从1.6825下跌至1.6775，下跌幅度达50个基点；随后欧元兑英镑的买盘需求强盛，打压英镑兑美元，致使该货币对迅速下降至1.6686的低点。今天，我们期待着英国10月零售销售额数据的释放，这是英国方面的又一重要新闻事件，市场预期将月比上涨0.5%，好于上个月的持平状态。随着本周的主要数据及事件的逐步释放，这将是最后一个推动英镑兑美元突破技术水平的预定风险事件，这些技术水平或许是1.6840的上扬阻力位水平，亦可能是1.6650的下跌支持位水平。
今日公布的美国10月消费物价指数好于预期，环比上扬0.2%，同比下降0.2%，该项数据证实，在美国经济整体状况低迷的背景下，其通货膨胀压力仍在控制之中。该数据对货币市场的影响有限，因为决策者的措辞影响盖过了该数据，再次成为今日的头条新闻。通讯社引述美国圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯-布拉德（非投票委员）的话称，美联储在2012年初之前可能不会上调利率。詹姆斯-布拉德一向站在中性偏强硬的一派，他此次发表的言论却相当温和。然而，令人困惑的是，他还补充说，房市泡沫的阴影可能促使美联储以后的加息速度要快于在过去的低迷期中的加息行动。总的来说，他的言论使得美元温和上扬，但区间震荡的价格行动依然存在，似乎本周余下的财经数据都无法打破这个震荡区间。今天下午，市场上的数据释放安排较为清淡，只有美国上周初请失业金人数，美国领先指标和美国11月费城联储调查数据——但尽管过去3天最突出的货币行动也是全因美联储措辞（伯南克，耶伦，布拉德）而引起，我们仍然期待稍后的重要公开讲话，这些公开发言人包括美国的盖特纳和费希尔，欧洲央行的行长特里谢和理事帕拉莫，以及加拿大的卡尼。
Market Brief
Gold has once again outshone other assets classes by powering to new highs above $1153, bringing the gains month-to-date to an astounding +10.2%. The move has been paralleled by rallies in most major and EM currencies against the USD (albeit to a less impressive extent), however underlining the disintegration of recent correlations, equity markets put in a rather mediocre performance on the whole.
Yesterday’s major news event was the publication of the Bank of England Minutes; revealing the recent decision to expand QE by GBP25bn was in fact determined by a 3-way split vote. Seven members were united in agreeing to the headline 25bn figure, but MPC member Dale voted for no further expansion to the existing 175bn asset purchase target, whilst David Miles wanted a larger increase of 40bn to bring the total to 215bn. While the latter figure may seem peculiar, it seems MPC member Miles was trying to propose a figure that would ensure the rate of asset purchases would remain constant going forward; indeed one of the explanations for the sharp GBP rally following the original meeting was the calculation that 25bn signified a slower pace of purchases and possible sign of an end to the stimulus programme. GBPUSD dropped 50 pips from 1.6825 to 1.6775 on a knee-jerk reaction to the vote details, and subsequent strong demand for EURGBP throughout the day put GBPUSD under pressure, dropping to a low of 1.6686. Today we await the release of yet another important piece of UK data, with Retail Sales for October estimated to have increased 0.5% MoM after last month’s disappointing 0.0% reading. With the week’s major data events winding down, this will be the last scheduled risk event capable of pushing GBP beyond technical levels at either 1.6840 upside resistance or 1.6650 downside support.
The release of US CPI figures confirmed an uptick in inflation from its depressed levels, posting a better than expected 0.2% MoM gain that dragged the annualized figure up to -0.2%. The event had limited effect in the currency markets; as yet again, policy-maker rhetoric stole the headlines. St Louis Fed President James Bullard (non-voter) was quoted on newswires as saying the Fed may not start to raise rates until early 2012. The comments were perceived as dovish from a member who is usually considered to be a centrist with hawkish tendencies. However, confusingly he also added that the memory of the housing bubble may push the Fed to start hiking rates sooner than in past recessions. On balance, his remarks have been interpreted as mildly USD positive, but range bound price action is still stubbornly ensconced and it seems unlikely that any scheduled data event in the remainder of the week will be sufficient to break defined ranges. This afternoon’s session looks unpromising with only weekly claims data, US Leading Indicators and the Philadelphia Fed survey – but given the last three days’ most salient moves have been triggered by Fed rhetoric (Bernanke, Yellen, Bullard), we remain conscious of speeches expected later from US speakers Geithner and Fisher, ECB’s Trichet and Gonzalez-Paramo, and Canada’s Carney.
