ACM：英镑投机者等待英国央行会议纪要的释放

来源：亚洲外汇网

作者：Rosenstreich

今日汇评

昨日美元强劲上扬，推动欧元兑美元威胁到12个月以来的上扬趋势，并测试重要阻力位1.4810。今日，欧元兑美元在外汇市场多少取得了一些巩固。该货币对的巩固理应归功于美联储理事耶伦的公开讲话，他表示将利率调高可能有助于遏制杠杆化的“破坏性”;而另一个催化剂因素则是美联储主席伯南克前天的讲话，该讲话令引发投资者对美元的空头头寸感到很不安，以至大幅抛售美元，欧元兑美元最新的下行测试水平甚至有可能接近1.5060的上行阻力位，威胁欧元兑美元的上扬趋势。今日早盘，欧元区和美国方面释放的经济数据喜忧参半，但对外汇市场的影响甚小。美国10月生产者价格指数差于预期（实际值月比上涨0.3％，预期值月比上涨0.5％），10月工业生产数据也令市场倍感失望，实际值月比上扬0.1％（实际值月比上扬0.4％），但TIC数据凸显9月外国投资者对美国证券的投资量大幅激增。欧元兑美元遭遇抛售的最大影响是引发黄金大幅上扬，创下1144美元每盎司的新高，完全破坏了这两种资产类比自今年三月份以来建立的相关性。

昨日，英镑的表现要好于其他大多数货币；英国10月消费者物价指数好于预期：月比上涨0.2％，年比上涨1.5％（预期值：月比上涨0.1％，年比上涨1.4％）。今日，影响英镑兑美元当天走势的重要风险事件是即将释放的英国央行会议纪要，该会议纪要的内容将再次涉及到货币政策委员会委员对量化宽松政策是否持续的意见资料的审查。我们认为，风险偏见随后将支持英镑兑美元进一步上扬至1.7000（尤其是，一旦发生重新认真考虑结束刺激政策的情况），但很明显的是，如果央行的声明较为温和的话，将有可能会拖累英镑兑美元走低至1.6650。

隔夜，亚洲股市经历巨幅波动，但黄金仍攀升至1139美元每盎司的高点，白银也走高守住18.40美元每盎司的高水平。如此看来，我们认为黄金在1180至1200美元每盎司的区间仍有进一步上扬的空间，但欧元兑美元却不太可能具备这种活跃的动力。今日的欧洲财经日历安排甚少，只有欧元区9月份的工业生产数据释放，而美国市场的财经日历安排就相对要多一点点，引人注目的有加拿大10月消费者物价指数和和美国10月消费物价指数。来自美国方面的数字应该确认，通货膨胀将继续维持在低水平处，预期年比下滑3个百分点，月比下滑1.3个百分点。

Market Brief

There has been some consolidation in FX overnight after yesterday’s USD rally pushed EURUSD to threaten its 12 month uptrend and test major resistance at 1.4810. The catalyst appears to have been comments from the Fed’s Yellen that suggested higher rates could help stem “damaging” leverage; yet another piece of rhetoric that has unnerved short USD positions after Bernanke’s comments the day before – as such, this latest test of the downtrend comes without the pair having even come close to testing the upside resistance at 1.5060, a worrying factor for EURUSD bulls. European and US data from earlier in the session was mixed and had a muted impact on FX markets following their release. US PPI came in lower than estimates (0.3% MoM vs. 0.5% expected) and Industrial Production also disappointed at 0.1% in October (against consensus for 0.4%), however TIC data highlighted a massive surge in foreign investment in US securities in September. What was significant about this latest EURUSD sell-off was the simultaneous rally in gold to hit new highs at $1144; completely undermining the correlation that has existed between the two asset classes since March.

One of the better performing currencies yesterday was GBP; after UK CPI data beat estimates at 0.2% MoM, 1.5% YoY (forecast: 0.1% MoM, 1.4% YoY). The crucial event for GBPUSD direction from here will be today’s release of the BoE Minutes, where once again, the particulars of MPC members’ opinions on the continuation of QE will be under scrutiny. We feel that the bias of risks lends itself to further GBP upside to 1.7000 levels (especially if there is serious consideration of an end to the stimulus programme), but obviously if the statement strikes a more dovish tone then a revisit of 1.6650downside support is possible.

Overnight equity markets across Asia have put in a variable performance, but gold remains elevated at $1139 levels, and silver too is holding up well at $18.40. From here we believe the rally in gold has further upside to $1180-1200 levels, but it seems unlikely that EURUSD will be able to follow suit with such vigour. The European data calendar is light today, expecting only Eurozone Construction Output, but the US session should be slightly more compelling with both Canadian and US CPI figures due. The US figures should confirm that inflation remains subdued, with forecasts looking for a -0.3% reading YoY, up from -1.3% last month.