来源：亚洲外汇网

作者：Rosesntreich

今日汇评

在亚洲市场，股市继续走高，风险偏好情绪依然活跃，大多数主要货币和新兴市场货币兑美元均有所走高。欧元兑美元仍远高于1.4940-50的支撑位水平，但至今仍未能确定下一个阻力位是否为1.5063（10月26日当日所创下的高点），其后阻力位为1.5100。今天的德国消费者物价指数（欧洲统一）略有放缓，月率上涨0.1％，而此前预测值为上扬0.2％，换成年率，同比下滑0.1%。该数据释放后，欧元兑美元小幅下滑至1.4980，但良好的标售情况又使改组货币对处于超买状态，今日欧元区的主要焦点将是稍后公布的德国和欧元区ZEW调查结果。我们预计一旦出现利好数据，欧元兑美元将全线温和回升。

昨天大盘出现例外，卡夫食品最近宣布对吉百利进行收购，使得英镑受挫，预期所有股价均未上涨，竞争对手的再次投标仍受拒。英镑兑美元在1.6843美元触顶，结束了1.6700-50小幅下跌的局面。今天清晨，惠誉全球主权评级副主管David Riley表示英国将失去AAA级主权地位，原因在于它需要“最大的预算调整”，这使得英镑兑美元再次走高，到目前为止，双方均已下跌至1.6602的低点，自昨日突破0.8900之后，欧元兑英镑再次反弹至0.9000。

今日外汇市场的其他重要事件即为：瑞典的工业生产指数和挪威的消费者物价指数。在瑞典，相对大多数人普遍期望的工业生产指数增加0.5％，我们期望月增长率达到1.0％，我们也预期活动指数将提高到103.4点。法国财政部部长Anders Borg表示，鉴于法国经济低迷状况还在继续，预测2010年和2011年法国国内生产总值将分别提高到2.0％和3.4％。明年的失业率也预计从10.7％上升到11.4％。与此同时，在挪威自上周风险资产减少以来，欧元对挪威克朗已经复苏（撰写本报告时，该货币对报价8.3800），但仍处于8.3500和8.2500之间的低点。通货膨胀率月比增长幅度为0.0％（同比增长0.8％），高于预期，这些重要事件将使得欧元兑克朗和美元兑克朗走低。

Market Brief

Most major and EM currencies remain at elevated levels vs. the USD as Asian equity markets continue to make gains and highlight that risk appetite is alive and well. EURUSD remains well supported above 1.4940-50, but is still yet to make its next move to resistance at 1.5063 (26 Oct high), and thereafter 1.5100 resistance. Today’s German CPI (EU harmonized) figures were slightly subdued at 0.1% MoM against forecasts for a 0.2% gain, bringing the YoY figures back down to -0.1% from 0.0% prior. EURUSD has slid back slightly to 1.4980 levels after the release, but good bids are keeping the pair buoyed and the main focus will be the German and Eurozone ZEW survey results due later in the session. We expect modest improvements across the board, and anticipate EURUSD will rally strongly on any better-than-expected readings.

The notable exception amongst the majors in the past day has been GBP which suffered a setback yesterday on the announcement of Kraft’s latest bid for Cadbury Plc; there was no increase in the price per share offered as some had anticipated, and the hostile bid was once again rejected. GBPUSD topped out at 1.6843 and spent the rest of the session edging lower to 1.6700-50 levels. Early this morning GBPUSD took another sharp hit when Fitch’s David Riley was quoted as saying the UK is most at risk of losing its AAA sovereign status due to the fact it will need “the largest budget adjustment”; so far the pair has dipped back to 1.6602 lows, and EURGBP surged back above 0.9000 after yesterday’s false break of 0.8900 on the downside.

The other key events of the session will be Swedish Industrial Production and Norwegian CPI. EURNOK has regained most of its ground since the unwind of risk-assets last week (trading at 8.3800 at the time of writing,) but 8.3500 remains a significant support between here and 8.2500 lows. The consensus reading for MoM inflation is 0.0% (0.8% YoY); look out for higher than expected readings which might push EURNOK and USDNOK lower through their key levels.