来源：亚洲外汇网

作者：Rosenstreich

今日汇评

昨日，在美国股市收盘之际，除美元兑日元收盘上涨近2个百分点以外，大多数美元交叉盘均有所下滑，而亚洲市场全线走高。积极的经济数据和乐观的企业评述也大大刺激风险偏好情绪升温。欧元兑美元在1.4812至1.4919的区间内交投，美元兑日元在90.88至89.99的区间内交投。石油报价79.62美元每盎司，黄金围绕1090美元每盎司的水平震荡。

欧洲央行昨日的利率决议和新闻发布会均令市场惊讶。欧洲央行行长特里谢表示, 尽管美联储宣布维持联邦低利率至很长一段时间，但并不是所有的流动性都打压美元。他还补充说，强势美元符合美国的利益，有利于亚洲货币市场的有序上扬，特别是中国对强势美元的态度是持欢迎的。然而，我们可以看到，在短期内，投资者还是希望在本年年末时能看到获利的结果，这种心态将利好美元。

正如市场所预期的，英国央行宣布维持基准利率不变，并宣布将债券购买计划的规模扩大250亿英镑而不是500亿英镑，但该扩大规模与我们的经济学家们之前的预估值是一致的。新增加的资产将于未来三个月内购买完成，这暗示资产收购计划的步伐有所放缓。我们预期在下周释放的通货膨胀报告中，英国货币政策委员会或将提及暂停量化宽松政策，但并不是完全退出量化宽松政策。

在澳大利亚，澳洲联储11月货币政策声明内容显示，澳洲联储上调了投资者期待已久的通货膨胀预测和经济增长预测。这是继8月上调通货膨胀预测和经济增长预测之后的又一次上调，且上调的幅度较5月份宣布的幅度还要大。澳元兑美元一路颠簸上涨至0.9150。下一次的澳洲联储会议决议在很大程度上将还是要取决于其经济数据，包括即将公布的疲软零售销售额数据。尽管此次的澳洲联储利率决议已经板上钉钉，但我们的经济学家还是预期12月份的澳洲联储将加息25个基点。下一次释放的就业报告和第三季度资本支出数据对近期的澳洲联储政策决议也具有重要的参考作用。政策分歧利好澳元兑纽元。

今天的重点事件是即将释放的美国劳动力市场方面的数据。计算结果显示，预期10月非农业就业人数的下降幅度约为18万人。该数据表明，与9月份26.4万人的下降幅度相比，虽有所改善，但其作用根本就是无足轻重。不过，劳动力市场自9月份的大幅下跌后有所反弹的情况，则意味着失业率可能从9月的9.8%上升至10.0％，创1983年6月以来首次突破10.0%的关口。在过去的8周时间里，美元对周五非农就业数据的多次反应表明，就业数据的意外上扬将利好美元兑日元和美元兑欧元，也就是说，意外上扬的就业数据将刺激美元兑日元走高，欧元兑美元走软。从历史的观点来讲，美国周五非农就业数据的意外上扬直接影响到美元兑日元的走势。

Market Brief

The USD weakened versus most of the majors with the exception of the JPY as US equities closed up nearly 2% and Asia markets are also much higher across the board. Positive economic data and optimistic central bank commentary helped spur risk-seeking as EURUSD traded 1.4812-1.4919 and USDJPY 90.88-89.99. Oil is now above $80 and gold remains bid at $1095.

Yesterday, the Bank of England held rates unchanged as expected, but the announced increase in QE of GBP25bln was below the market's target for GBP50bln. This triggered a sharp rally in GBPUSD from 1.6500 to 1.6600 as the additional assets will be purchased over a 3 month period, implying a slower pace of asset purchases. The ECB decision and press conference followed shortly afterwards but produced few surprises. ECB President Trichet's comments that not all liquidity measures currently in place would be needed as much as in the past gave a boost to EURUSD, but questions on the strength of EURUSD merely prompted a reiteration of the line that a strong dollar is in the interest of the US – albeit with an additional mention that orderly rises in Asian currencies, particularly China's, would be welcome.

In Australia the November Statement of Monetary Policy revealed upgrades in the RBA's inflation and growth assumptions; the magnitude of the upgrades was large compared to its August forecast and even more extreme compared to its May forecasts. AUDUSD has been well supported this morning up to highs of 0.9176. The next RBA move remains largely data-dependent following the weaker retail sales figure. While it is still a close call, forecasts are largely calling for a 25bp rise in December.

Today’s highlight will be the release of US labour data. Consensus is looking for a -175k change in October, meaning last month’s -263k decline was just a blip in the improving trend. That said, a rebound in the labour force after September’s sharp fall may mean that the unemployment rate rises from 9.8% in September and hits 10.0% for the first time since June 1983. A check of dollar responses to the non-farm payrolls data over the past eight months suggests that upside surprises in the employment data have been good news for the USD vs. the JPY and EUR whereby upside surprises have tended to lead to a higher USDJPY and weaker EURUSD. Historically the best way of playing a surprise NFP is through USDJPY. We could see choppier trading into year-end as a result of investors looking to book profits, which would be dollar-supportive.

Today highlight will be the release of US labour market data. Calculations suggest that non-farm payroll employment fell by around 180,000 in October. That would mean the acceleration in the rate at which payrolls fell in September, to a 264,000 decline, was just a blip in the improving trend. That said, a rebound in the labour force after September’s sharp fall may mean that the unemployment rate rises from 9.8% in September and hits 10.0% for the first time since June 1983. A check of dollar responses to the non-farm payrolls data over the past eight months suggests that upside surprises in the employment data have been good news for the USD vs the JPY and EUR whereby upside surprises have tended to lead to a higher USDJPY and weaker EURUSD. Historically the best way of playing a surpise NFP is through USDJPY.