来源：亚洲外汇网

今日汇评

昨天上午，市场公布了欧元区10月制造业采购经理人指数，为50.7，大致符合预期（欧元区的德国），或好于预期（瑞典，意大利，法国，英国）。该数据的释放对外汇市场的影响甚小，很明显，这是因为在本周余下时间里将有更重要的央行会议声明和经济数据释放。在昨日上午的大部分交易时段内，欧元兑美元一直在1.4730至1.4800的区间内震荡整理，与此同时，大部分其他货币对也一直是窄幅震荡，横盘调整行情; 而英镑交叉盘成为昨日的特例，非窄幅震荡行情，而是大幅下挫，英镑兑日元下滑，英镑兑美元跌破1.6350关口，触及1.6330的低点。

昨日贯穿外汇市场行情的风险事件源于美国释放的相关数据，即美国10月ISM制造业指数、美国9月未决房屋销售数据、美国9月营建支出数据——这三个数据均好于市场预期，且较前值大幅上升。美国10月ISM制造业指数为55.7（预期值为53.0，前值为52.6），以及美国10月ISM支付价格指数为65.0（预期值为64.0，前值为63.5）。市场对这些利好数据的反应及其迅速，直接表现为美元兑各主要货币和黄金大幅下滑，而股市迅速上扬，被推动至积极区域。欧元兑美元从1.4770大幅上扬至1.4820（并触及高点1.4845），英镑兑美元从1.6340上窜至1.6415，但之后未能成功突破1.6440的阻力位水平。黄金现在已经坚定地位于1060美元每盎司的上方，但因美元抛售的行情已经结束，今日的外汇市场上大多数主要货币均回吐美元昨日收益。

隔夜，澳洲联储宣布将基准利率上调25个基点，至3.5%，符合市场预期。在澳洲联储宣布利率决定之前，澳元兑美元逐步走高，但随着强硬态度较以前有所温和的附加声明释放以后，澳元兑美元从0.9090 大幅滑落至 0.9007。附加声明一改从前的“目前的利率是恰当”的说话，而是插入了这样的说话，宽松货币政策的推出战略将“逐步”进行。部分投机者之前希望澳大利亚本月能加息50个基点，但目前看来，央行觉得当前的利率改变步伐是适宜的，甚至还指出澳元当前的强势更很能会“抑制物价”。

欧洲市场今日即将公布挪威的采购经理人指数，预期将从上月的47.4上升至49.0。考虑到欧元兑挪威克朗最近的价格行动，很明显即使风险偏好有所好转，未来的挪威克朗仍将看涨。鉴于昨日欧洲市场大部分国家公布的采购经理人指数仅本上是符合或好于市场预期（对货币没有影响），而这种趋势看似也不太可能发生改变，然而，如果今天的挪威采购经理人指数令投资者失望的话，将立即引起议论猎杀止损。

在美国市场，即将公布美国9月工厂订单月率数据（预期值为月率上升0.8％，前值为月比下降0.8％）; 虽然这是一个相对不稳定的数据，但我们预期该值将好于预期，且给市场带来跟昨日的美国数据所引起的相似的影响（股票市场走高，风险偏好获得短期支持）。明日的联邦公开市场委员会将是影响美元走势的重要风险事件。

Market Brief

The major news overnight has been the RBA meeting where rates were raised 25bps to 3.50% as expected. AUDUSD had ground gradually higher in anticipation of the announcement, but sold off from 0.9090 to 0.9007 after the release as the supplementary statement sounded a moderately less hawkish tone. The statement removed previous comments that the “very expansionary setting” of current rates was “possibly imprudent”, and inserted that the removal of accommodative monetary policy from here would happen “gradually”. Some speculators had hoped for a 50bps hike this month but it seems the RBA is comfortable that this steady pace of rate rises is appropriate for now, and even referred to the current strength of AUD as likely to “dampen price pressures”.

Today’s European data releases kick off with Norway PMI; expected to post an improved 49.0 after last month’s 47.4 reading. Considering the price action in EURNOK recently, it is clear that positioning is posing a headwind to NOK gains, even when risk appetite is surging. Given that most regional PMI figures yesterday tended to be in line with or better than expectations (and had no currency impact), it is unlikely that this will buck the trend, however it is possible a poor PMI figure today could prompt a round of stop-hunting. UK Construction PMI rounds off the morning but this will be a minor data point likely to be overshadowed by broader risk appetite themes today and the all-important MPC meeting on Thursday.

The US session is only due to include US Factory Orders (0.8% MoM expected, -0.8% previous); although a relatively volatile figure, we would expect a higher than consensus reading to induce a similar reaction to yesterday’s US data (i.e. a boost to equities and short-term support for risk appetite). Tomorrow will be the key event for the USD as we await the FOMC meeting statement.