来源：亚洲外汇网
作者：Rosenstreich
今日汇评
昨日，美国9月份新屋销售数据月率意外下降3.6%,预期为增长2.6%，但因这些数据释放的时间较晚，亚洲股市当天的交易都较为谨慎，而美元甚至在亚洲市场的晚盘中进一步反弹。考虑到新屋销售数据能如实反映房屋市场在刺激政策下的表现如何，此次释放的这些数据着实令人担忧；而且最近的预测首次认为置业人士的税收在短期内可获准抵免，但现在看来前景并不乐观。欧元兑美元当天几乎一整天都在1.4750至1.4760的区间内震荡整理，但最后还是因为风险规避情绪的来袭而触及1.4683的低点。昨日，大宗商品货币（最近表现一直不错）遭遇的打击最大：澳元兑美元当天的下跌幅度超过2％，跌至0.8980；美元兑挪威克朗的下跌幅度约为1.7％，跌至5.7400，尽管挪威先前释放了加息的政策和强劲的央行声明；因新西兰央行释放的支持纽元的因素较少，纽元兑美元遭受抛售的压力最大，当天跌幅超过3％（前一个交易日的收盘价位0.7200）。正如市场所料，新西兰央行宣布维持利率在2.5％不变，同时该行的货币政策立场也从温和转向中性。为避免强势的纽元给出口带动型经济体新西兰带来不利影响，新西兰央行特别宣称将低利率政策维持“至2010年下半年不变”。但鉴于在过去的几个月里新西兰的数据一直都有所改善，且第三季度的通货膨胀数据也有所上扬，因此一个放缓的预期值或许将令许多投机者失望。
今天上午，亚洲股市普遍走低，欧洲期货市场也开盘走低。美元的近期强势致使黄金的前景走势异常脆弱，主要围绕在1030美元每盎司的关键水平左右震荡。截至目前，黄金在过去的24小时内已经创出1026美元每盎司的低点（上一个交易日收盘报1032美元每盎司），与此同时，白银也遭遇大规模抛售的打压，交易价格下降至16.12美元每盎司（上一个交易日收盘报16.25美元每盎司）。
展望今天的市场，将有一些列的关键数据释放。第一个被释放的数据就是挪威9月零售销售额数据，市场预期值为月比上升0.4%，而前值为月比上升0.3%。挪威过去数月公布的数据将投资者的野心一再推高，预期此次公布的数据亦是如此。然而，如果这个关键的数据出现意外下滑的情况，则挪威克朗必将受压做出迅速的反应，因为今天的大宗商品货币行动显示挪威克朗的价格行动和市场情绪的疲软状况正呈现出燎原之势。
另一个重要数据主要来自欧洲市场，如欧元区的消费者信心指数（预期值为-18，前值为-19）; 我们认为目前的风险情绪严重偏向于欧元兑美元的疲弱，因为就算公布了好于预期的信心指数也不一定能刺激投资者大量买进欧元，而一旦出现消极的信心指数将无疑是给风险规避情绪火上加油。
当然，今日即将释放的数据中的重点之重还是要数美国市场即将释放的数据。首当其冲的是美国第三季度国内生产总值数据。市场仍然乐观地认为，美国的本轮经济衰退已经接近尾声，但鉴于上周释放的英国第三季度国内生产总值意外下滑的例子，对今日的国内生产总值数据预期值多少还是带有一定的谨慎态度。很明显，如果该值真的令人失望的话，势必会给风险相关交易带来毁灭性的破坏，将进一步推动投资者大量买进美元；但同时市场也考虑到该值如果有所改善的情况，利好的美国经济前景预期值或将推动美国结束当前的刺激政策，甚至会改变美联储长时间内维持低利率政策的立场。一旦利好数据出现，最终也将支持美元的利差交易。
Market Brief
Equities traded heavily throughout the day yesterday, but it took a large miss in forecasts for US New Home Sales (-3.6% MoM vs. +2.6% expected) to add the catalyst for a USD rally late in the session. The numbers are particularly worrying considering that these figures reflect the performance of the housing market under stimulus, and considering the recent speculation that first-time homebuyer tax credits may be allowed to expire imminently, the prospect is not encouraging. EURUSD had spent the day stubbornly underpinned by support at 1.4750-60, but gradually as the wave of risk aversion took hold it collapsed to touch a low of 1.4683 overnight. Commodity currencies (the recent outperformers) were hit particularly hard; AUDUSD was down over 2% on the day to 0.8980, whilst USDNOK was down around 1.7% at 5.7400 despite the earlier rate hike and hawkish statement. NZDUSD suffered the most brutal sell-off, down over 3% on the day (0.7200 last) as there were few supportive factors to emerge from the RBNZ meeting. As expected, the central bank kept rates on hold at 2.5%, but they conceded very little in shifting from a dovish bias to a neutral stance. Wary of the effect of a strong NZD on the export-led economy, they were extremely careful to anchor expectations for no rate hikes “until the second half of 2010”. Given the much improved data over the last month and uptick in inflation in the 3rd quarter, it is likely this subdued assessment disappointed many speculators.
This morning the Asian equity markets are universally in negative territory, and futures are pointing to a lower open across Europe. The USD’s recent strength has left gold looking extremely vulnerable around its pivotal $1030 level; so far it has dipped to a low of $1026 in the past 24 hours ($1032 last), and silver has also suffered an aggressively sell-off to $16.12 lows ($16.25 last)
Looking ahead to today’s session there are a number of further key releases. First up will be Norwegian Retail Sales (Sep), where the market is looking for a 0.4% increase MoM after the 0.3% gain last month. The spate of impressive figures from Norway in the last few months has pushed ambitions high, and this number is likely follow suit. However, if there is a downside miss in the numbers, NOK could suffer acutely as positioning and market sentiment is primed for an unwind in commodity currencies today.
The other major release of the European session will be Eurozone Consumer Confidence (-18 expected, -19 prior); given sentiment we believe the bias strongly favours EURUSD weakness as better-than-expected figure will be unlikely to present a compelling case for buying EUR, but a weak number will almost certainly add fuel to the risk aversion fire.
Of course the centre-piece of the day’s releases will come in the US session as the US Q3 GDP first reading is revealed. Markets are still optimistic that the end of recession is nigh, but given the shock miss in UK GDP last week, there is certain to be some caution attached to forecasts. Obviously the prospect of a disappointing number will have a devastating effect on risk correlated trades and prompt strong USD buying, but markets should also consider the prospect that improvements in the US outlook may well beget the end of stimulus measures and indeed change the Fed’s attitude to low-for-long interest rate policy. A situation which would eventually also favour an unwind of USD carry trades.
