来源：亚洲外汇网

今日汇评

昨日的外汇市场缺乏风险事件，股市因此暴跌，美元得以强劲反弹，欧元兑美元从1.5000大幅下跌至1.4840的低点（现报1.4920）。欧元兑美元是昨日外汇市场上表现非常出色的一组货币对，这也许是因为上周五所预见的抛售行情起到了作用。然而，加拿大央行行长卡尼并未就他之前所提出的货币干预政策发表重申或扩大之类的评论，加元因此上扬，且并未屈从于美元的强势。

美元的强劲反弹看似是因标准普尔指数的大幅下跌所引发，主要由标准普尔的成分股金融和保险类股领跌所致。具体来讲，是购房信贷投机拖累银行类股，因为投资者担心一旦失去刺激政策，住房市场将会产生一系列的后果。由此看来，为了修正此次的股市波动，未来或许会出现更多的刺激政策；股市的大幅下跌可能会凸显出一个近期高点——虽然我们仍然相信更广泛的全球经济复苏交易仍占市场的主导地位，但我们期待已久的修正以及投资者对股票股价的信心在某种程度上或将因为此次的反弹而失去动力。考虑到欧元兑美元之间，以及股票和黄金之间的高度相关性，隔夜黄金大幅下跌触及支撑位1037美元每盎司的水平（现为1042美元每盎司）就显得不足为奇了。

亚洲股市今日早盘全面走低，这主要归因于大宗商品价格的下滑。今天的关键风险事件将是瑞典的消费者物价指数，欧元区M3数据和美国的消费者信心指数。虽然后者可能是引发外汇市场波动的最强劲因素，但我们认为在未来的股票市场里，风险情绪对这些引发波动的经济数据都将表现出更为敏感的态度来。

Market Brief

There were very few scheduled risk events yesterday but a late slump across equity markets prompted a defiant rally from the USD, and caused EURUSD to plummet from 1.5000 to 1.4840 lows (currently 1.4920). GBP spent yesterday as one of the best performers against the USD, perhaps predictable given the extent of Friday’s sell-off; but despite CAD gaining some ground as BoC’s Carney failed to repeat or expand on his prior currency intervention comments, it too later succumbed to the wave of USD strength.

The move appeared to be triggered by an aggressive sell-off in the S&P on high volumes, led predominantly by financial and insurance names. Specifically, there was speculation about the imminent withdrawal of home-buyer tax credits that dragged down banking stocks, as investors panicked about the consequences for the housing market without stimulus. It is likely there will be more to come in this corrective move; the high volumes going through on the equity futures may highlight a near-term top – and whilst we do still believe the broader global recovery trade still dominates, we have been long overdue a correction and at some stage investor confidence in equity valuations will run out of steam for this leg of the rally. Given the high correlation between EURUSD, equities and gold, it’s unsurprisingly then that gold plunged through downside support to touch a low of $1037 overnight (currently $1042).

Asian equities are down across the board this morning; the blame apportioned to the slump in commodity prices. Today’s key risk events will be Swedish PPI, Eurozone M3 and US Consumer Confidence. Although the latter is likely to be the biggest market mover, we feel risk sentiment will be more sensitive to any moves in the equity markets in the coming session that economic data.