来源：亚洲外汇网
今日汇评
欧元兑美元当天收盘报价1.5036。今日，尽管美国数据方面相对平静，但股市在当天晚些时候还是实现了上扬。标准普尔500指数同欧元之间的即日相关性依旧强劲。澳元、纽元、加元兑美元当天的收盘报价较前一个交易日均有所走弱，分别收于0.9277，0.7587和1.0475。
美国预算赤字在过去一年扩过大了近一万亿美元，使美国越来越依赖于有担保的债权人融资方式。截至2008年12月，有近50.3％的美国政府债券归海外投资者持有。据相关数据统计，海外投资者于8月连续增持美国国债，创3.448万亿的历史高点，几乎相当于中国和日本所持美国国债量的一半。随着美联储继续扩展其资产负债表，且政府支出也没有显示出下降的迹象，市场常常在思考：美国还要享受多久海外债权人的慷慨。从外国购买美国政府资产的各种指标来看，世界其他国家与美国的净债务保持同比增长的迹象越来越明显。TIC数据中有对美国国债证券的官方持有量的估计值，我们可以看到，尽管这部分持有者在某些季节里大幅增长，其政府持有量季比增幅超过10个百分点，但其在整个美国国债持有人中所占的比例已经明显下降。
正如市场所料，瑞典央行决定维持0.25％的利率不变，亦决定将以固定利率向瑞典各大银行再提供1000亿瑞典克朗贷款，贷款期限为11个月。与此同时，央行也并未就其回购利率或存款利率做出任何更改决定。此次的货币政策委员会成员对央行决定的分歧看似有所扩大，仅一名成员支持将利率下调至零水平，而其余三名成员则认为鉴于经济形势已经有所好转，央行无必要再次向银行业提供固定利率的贷款。
尽管英国公布的9月零售销售额数据（环比持平，同比上升2.4%）远不如市场预期值（环比上升0.5%，同比上升2.8%），但较8月的零售销售值仍实现了小幅上调，为此英镑当天继续上行。隔夜疲软的零售销售值打压英镑，使其上行通道受阻，与此同时，坚挺的股市又阻止了英镑的再次下滑。预期下一个阻碍英镑继续上行的因素是定于今日释放的英国国内生产总值数据。英国央行最近一直在强调“坚挺的”经济数据，例如作为整体经济指标的国内生产总值数据，以及作为领先经济指标的采购经理人数据，最近给经济活动并未带来良好的迹象。为此，此次的国内生产总值数据较往常更受关注，其意外下滑（出现季度负增长）结果进一步增加了英国央行将于下个月的议息会议上实施进一步放松政策的可能性（增加英国央行的资产收购规模和/或在下调央行的存款利率）。
在欧洲市场，我们预期10月份欧元区综合采购经理人指数将再次上升，但速度会较过去数月出现放缓。欧元区9月综合采购经理人指数略高于50，为连续第二个月高于50这个“不变”标志性水平，表明欧元区第三季度的经济规模已经温和扩大。与此同时，10月德国IFO商业信心指数很有可能将上升至11个月以来的高点，表明德国经济正在经历持续回升的过程。
Market Brief
Markets are still digesting the whopper of a US budget deficit released yesterday. The figure has ballooned by close to $1tln over the pat year, staggering for even the US . Currently roughly 51% is held by overseas investors and of that number half is held by Japan and China . Interestingly, while the markets ponder how long foreign appetite for US assets will continue, the Fed happily extends its balance sheet and US government spending rages on. The good news from the US perspective is that by looking at TIC data there seems to be little decay in demand from sovereign names. The GBP continues to outperform, despite yesterday's retail sales coming in much softer than expected at 0.0% on the month and 2.4% annualized (0.5%m/m, 2.8%y/y expected), although last month's print was revised slightly higher. Today’s UK GDP release will be important fo the GBP direction. There has been a shift within the BoE towards solid economic data (like today's GDP) since other indictors such as PMI have been less predictive. Today’s GDP could greatly increase the probability of additional policy easing in November and in our mind GBP selling.
Yesterday's Riksbank Rates were left unchanged at 0.25%, but the accompanying statement struck a distinctly dovish tone with the markets. It reiterated that rates would remain on hold until Autumn 2010, and affirmed that a further SEK100bn would be offered to banks, disappointing those who hoped the financial system may have recovered sufficiently to negate the need for further liquidity injections. The USDSEK rallied sharply to a high of 6.9396 (aided somewhat by a recovery in the USD), but has since pared back gains to 6.8200.
Todays main highlights (aside from the aforementioned UK GDP), will be a slew of European PMI data along with the IFO, whilst the US schedule features Existing Home Sales and speeches from the Fed’s Bernanke and Kohn.
