来源：亚洲外汇网

今日汇评

昨日的外汇市场,有三个值得关注的风险事件。

第一个风险事件是英国央行的议息纪要。纪要显示英国央行理事会在10月份会议上以9比0票决定维持量化宽松规模在1750亿英镑不变，致使英镑一路飙升（英镑兑美元触及1.6637的高点）。议息纪要显示，英国央行理事会成员认为无令人信服的理由改变目前的债券购买计划，但纪要补充道，即将到来的11月份经济预测将是一个重新评估的机会。

第二个驱动外汇市场波动的风险事件是盈利数据的释放。尤其是摩根士丹利公司和富国银行的盈利数据均超出分析师的预期，推动股市暴涨。同往常一样，股市中积极的盈利数据立马转化为积极的风险偏好情绪，推动美元走低（美元指数低至74.79），从而是美元触及第三个关键点，欧元兑美元最后终于突破1.5000的水平。但离部分欧元多头所希望的强劲突破1.5350关口的水平还有一段距离，看起来欧元兑美元在新的波动区间内交投非常谨慎,截至目前，也只是走高至1.5046，而且在大部分的交易时段内也只是围绕1.5000水平最有巩固整理。

第三个风险事件就是中国公布第三季度国内生产总值数据。该数据同比增长8.9％,致使亚洲股指全面走低，虽然略低于9.0%的平均预期值,但足以支撑中国做出迅速撤回经济刺激政策的决定。中国政府暗示他们将继续维持目前的刺激政策不变，但补充说，对通货膨胀的担忧将在未来政策决定中起到越来越大的作用。

今天的经济日历上公布的重要数据较多。首先是瑞典央行宣布的利率决定，与市场普遍预期一致，利率维持在0.25％不变，但大多数注意力集中在12个月期的1000亿瑞典克朗的固定价格要约回购计划，如果该计划没有落实，或将利好瑞典克朗。接着公布的就是瑞典失业率，然后是上午晚些时候公布的英国零售销售额数据和欧元区经常账户数据，以及下午公布的加拿大零售销售额数据和美国首次公开申请失业救济的人数。

Market Brief

Three noteworthy events defined yesterday’s FX markets; first off the BoE indicated a unanimous 9-0 vote had supported the decision not to expand QE at the most recent meeting, sending GBP soaring higher amongst the majors (GBPUSD has hit a high of 1.6637 so far). The statement elaborated that the MPC saw no compelling reason to change the bond plan for now, but added the November meeting would provide an opportunity to assess more fully.

The second important driver of FX markets were earnings releases, notably Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo who both trumped analyst forecasts, and sent equity markets surging higher. As usual, the positive gains in equity markets translated into an infectious sense of positive risk appetite which sent the USD spiralling lower to fresh lows (DXY as low as 74.94), and thus triggered the third key landmark, EURUSD finally breaking above the 1.5000 level. However far from being the explosive burst towards 1.5350 some bulls may have hoped for, EURUSD seemed to tread very tentatively in this new territory; it has thus far only pushed as high as 1.5046, and spent most of the remaining time consolidating in and around the 1.5000 level.

Overnight, equity markets are lower across Asia after China GDP showed the economy grew 8.9% YoY in Q3; slightly below the median estimates for 9.0%, but still at levels which seem compelling enough for stimulus measures to be soon withdrawn. China’s cabinet signalled they would still maintain stimulus measures for now, but noted that inflation concerns would be an increasing focus of policy-making going forward.

Today the economic calendar has a number of key focal points; the first will be the Riksbank rate announcement where it is widely anticipated rates will be kept on hold at 0.25%. Most focus will be on the likelihood of another 12-month fixed tender of SEK 100bn, but if this does not materialize it will likely be a positive for the currency. Swedish Unemployment Rate follows soon after, and later in the morning we get UK Retail Sales and Eurozone Current Account, before Canada Retail Sales and US Claims data round out the afternoon.