来源：亚洲外汇网

今日汇评

因亚洲区域股指暴跌，华尔街重整旗鼓，美元再次大幅走低。风险交易相关货币的走势与风险偏好情绪走势完全同步。积极的风险偏好情绪得益于苹果公司和小松公司公布了好于预期的企业盈利数据。或许，可以抑制美元继续疲软的因素之一是卢森堡的欧元集团财长会议，但该会议尚未提及欧元强势问题，投资者的关注焦点再次集中到1.5000的水平上。欧元兑美元在1.4829至1.4981的区间内交投，创14个月以来的新高。隔夜，美联储主席伯南克在其第二次公开讲话中表示：财政退出策略对于保持全球对美国经济及美元的信心至关重要。虽然该评论紧跟着美国纽约联储的声明，证实其正在进行反向回购操作测试（伴随着许多有关紧缩政策的传言），但该评论不应被解释为美联储就此将改变其货币政策。

隔夜，纽约表现最佳，因此也获得投资者的部分关注。从商品货币的角度来看，投资者预期纽元将欠佳，表现远落后于其近亲，澳元，其在10月里的风险大幅反弹，这是因为澳大利亚央行的态度较新西兰央行的态度要强硬得多。但是，新西兰央行最近公布的强劲数据，进一步表明新西兰央行下周面临的进一步下调官方现金利率的风险变小。我们继续预期新西兰央行将在2010年第一季度开始加息，而澳元兑纽元将继续在1.20至1.25的区间内交投。

今天，澳大利亚央行发布了其10月的会议纪要（进入紧缩政策环节，加息25个基点，至3.25%），纪要显示，对通货膨胀可能上升担忧的增加是央行决定提高利率的决定因素。这正是澳元多头投资者想听到的。纪要还显示：目前的通胀预期较早期做出的通胀预期已经显著上升，因此提高了定于下周三公布的第三季度消费者物价指数报告对未来政策决定的重要性。加拿大央行已承诺到2010年第二季末前利率将维持在0.25%不变，因此今日对于该利率决定觉得最为兴奋的事情是，其对加元强势的提振作用。央行最近一次声明称：持续强劲的加元可能拖累经济增长并推迟通胀目标实现；在维持低利率货币政策方面，央行表示还存有相当大的灵活性。现在，加拿大2009年经济增长预期被上调且加元强势风险被下调，一上一下一起综合致使加元被大量买进。自央行上次释放声明以来，加拿大的经济数据已经明显好转，促使央行对本国经济复苏持有的信心明显充足起来，再也不需要邀请全球投资者来竞标加元，因为全球投资者已经买进加元和其他商品货币了。本周晚些时候，加拿大将公布10月货币政策报告，届时将给投资者有关加拿大何时启动退出战略以及是否调整其2010年的紧缩目标提供相关的暗示。

今日，市场公布的经济数据较少，主要是美国公布的10月美国NAHB房屋市场指数18，差于预期值20和前值19。

Market Brief

USD was on the back footing again, as Wall Street’s rally spilt over to Asian regional indexes. Risk correlated FX trades are moving lock in step with risk appetite. The positive risk sentiment was also helped by better than expected corporate earning from Apple and Komatsu Ltd. Perhaps the one barrier to continued USD weakness was the meeting of Eurozone finance ministers in Luxembourg. Yet, with no mention of the euro strength, traders are refocusing on 1.5000. The EURUSD traded in the range of 1.4829-1.4981, reaching a new 14-month high. In his second speech overnight, Fed’s Bernanke said that policy exit strategy is vitally important in maintaining confidence in the US economy and in the greenback. These comments follow on the heels of NY fed comments that reverse repos, which here actively being tested (and root of many tightening rumours), should not be viewed as impending change in monetary policy.

In Australia today, the RBA October meeting minutes (commenced the tightening cycle with a 25bp rate hike to 3.25%) showed a hawkish central bank, who was concerned over the rate of inflation. Exactly what the AUD bulls wanted to hear. The minutes stated that “the expected trough in inflation was significantly higher than earlier thought” and therefore heightening the importance of next Wednesday’s Q3 CPI report for future policy decisions. The other major event scheduled for today will be the BoC rate announcement. However, after Friday’s weak CPI figure, markets are expecting no shift in policy or in their comments to the exiting policy framework. Later this week, the Canadian October Monetary Policy reports might provide some indication of when exit strategies would begin and if there was any change in the Q2 2010 tightening target.