来源：亚洲外汇网

作者：Rosenstreich

今日汇评

在亚洲市场，欧元兑美元在1.4840至1.4920的区间内震荡，美元兑日元获进一步支撑，在90.75至91.15的区间内震荡走高。大多数第三季度企业盈利数据迎合了市场之前的利好预期，走高的盈利数据支撑风险偏好升温。亚洲区域指数涨跌互现，欧洲股指指向低开。国际货币市场交易员持仓报告显示，上周货币交易员减少了其做空美元的仓位。截至2009年10月13日周二当周，美元净空头仓位从上周的9.3万手下降至7.8万手。从指数的角度来讲，美元指数上周下跌2.5%，本周下跌2.2%；紧接着英镑的净空头仓位创出纪录新高。

上周五发布的美国财政部国际资本流动报告数据显示，今年8月中国减持美国国债34亿美元，持有总量为7971亿美元，但仍为美国国债的最大持有国。对中国来讲，这已经不是第一次单月大规模减持美国国债，但这次的减持规模比之前的4月和6月的规模要更大。然而，自2009年1月以来，中国持有美国国债的总量出现了持平状态，所有持债数据均加剧了市场对美元的担忧。最近，日本财务省的态度发生了重大变化，周五日本财务省顾问行天丰雄表示，中日美应联合保持美元稳定。他还补充道，中日两国拥有大规模美元储备，中日两国有义务保持美元的稳定。

据周日的英国泰晤士报一则报道，英国央行货币政策委员会成员波森暗示，他有意给扩大量化宽松政策规模投上一票。关于决策过程，他表示：“决策过程取决于对通胀风险的考虑，以及对金融体系恢复程度的考虑。”他说，“对于第一个问题，我的回答是，我现在并不担心通胀风险。英镑最近的升值表现是交易员对英国央行可能扩大量化宽松政策规模表示担忧所致。”但是，市场应该考虑11月的英国央行会议或将扩大量化宽松政策规模，我们预期届时英镑将遭遇抛售压力。

上周末，加拿大总理哈珀表示，他与加拿大央行一样对加元走强表示担忧。加拿大9月消费物价指数略低于预期，于上月基本持平（市场一致预期将月比上扬0.1%，年比下滑0.9%）。加拿大央行将于本周二举行会议，市场预期央行不变改变政策利率，或者说是坚持目前的政策框架不变，尤其是考虑到上周五还公布了令人失望的消费物价指数。明日还将释放加拿大10月货币政策执行报告，市场预期该报告对退出战略和加元强势或将作出进一步的陈述。

今日，美联储主席伯南克即将发表公开演讲，投资者重点关注退出战略的时间，尤其是考虑到第三季度的企业盈利数据都好于预期。美国联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要意外显示温和倾向，伯南克主席重申过于担忧通胀风险将不利于美元。另一重大近期活动是澳洲联储10月董事会会议纪要，定于明日公布。联储助理行长罗伊今日发表公开讲话：澳大利亚对亚洲贸易的依赖增加意味着澳大利亚将较大多数其他发达经济体更具优势继续中期增长。该消息利好澳元。预期澳洲联储11月加息50个基点的可能性为25%，我们认为该价格行动对于11月的议息会议具有重要作用。澳洲联储10月曾将利率加息25个基点，因此有部分市场人士认为此次的会议纪要或将提及加息50个基点的问题。如果澳洲联储真的为加息50个基点做讨论的话，我们预期澳元将走高。

Market Brief

Markets remain in a bullish mode, despite the pause on Friday of risky asset accumulation. In the Asian session, the EURUSD traded in the range of 1.4840-1.4920 and the USDJPY traded higher, in the range of 90.75-91.15. Last week?s Q3 earnings were broadly ahead of expectations, giving plenty of support to risk takers. The biggest gainer was the sterling, as traders paired down bets that the BoE would extend their quantitative easing program in November, on the back of comments by MPC member Fisher. However, this weekend in an article in the UK 's Sunday Times, MPC member Posen signalled that he had an inclination towards voting for an extension to the QE program. In regards to his decision making process, he states: "It goes back to how much you think there is real overshooting and inflation risk, and how much you think the financial system has recovered. And then goes on to say "My answer to the first is that I'm not worried about overshooting inflation right now. His lack of concern over inflation suggests that he is in the extension camp. With much of last weeks sterling gain based on unwinding of QE thinking and pressure on short, we would expect of QE to come back in to the markets psyche, expecting the GBP to come under renewed selling pressure. From Japan there has been a shift in MoF rhetoric in recent days, and on Friday Senior Advisor Gyohten, commenting that Japan, China and the US should cooperate to stabilise the USD. Perhaps the strongest signal so far that Japanese officals are moving back to the weak JPY policy.

Today?s light economic calendar will keep markets range bound. Today, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak and markets will be keen on any mention of exist strategies, given last week?s earning and the divergence seen in FOMC minutes. The other big near term event will be the RBA?s October minutes released tomorrow. The market is pricing in about a 25% chance of a 50bp rate hike in November and we believe that this pricing could become considerably more aggressive by the next meeting. Evidently, re-pricing of the RBA monetary policy path will equate to a stronger AUD.