ACM：澳洲联储的强硬态度提振澳元走高

来源：亚洲外汇网

作者：Rosenstreich

今日汇评

受并购活动及有关英国央行11月将不会扩大量化宽松政策规模传言的综合影响，英镑在今日早盘中继续走强（英镑兑美元为1.6355，欧元兑英镑为0.9125）。英镑交叉盘目前已经处于超买态势，回落修正将有助于我们回到几个关键技术性水平区域内；截止目前，英镑兑美元已经到达1.6400的高点，突破1.6468将打开下一个上扬目标1.6700，与此同时，欧元兑英镑的关键支撑位位于0.9070。

在释放重要数据方面，亚洲市场今日比较清淡，然而澳元却因为澳洲联储主席史蒂文斯的强硬态度而大幅走高，他表示,在加息方面不能“太胆小”；受此消息的影响，澳元兑美元走高至0.9720，突破了过去几日里形成的上升楔形的上扬趋势线并守住此位，该价格行动看似异常强势。

在今天上午释放的数据中，市场重点关注瑞士8月零售销售额数据，预期年比上扬0.8％（7月的该值为年比上扬1.0％）；瑞郎很有可能因此大幅波动，但目前的美元兑瑞郎行动还是继续平稳波动（目前报价1.0160），然而，欧元兑瑞郎至今仍然谨慎行动，重新测试干预区域下方的1.5130，考虑到瑞郎在过去几个月里已经守住该片区域，我们预期市场也将继续尊重这片区域。

加拿大9月消费者物价指数也将于今日释放（预期年率上扬0.1％，前值为0.0％）；相比之下，各主要货币对的行动也是市场主题的一部分，美元兑加元昨天上涨，今日继续小幅上涨（目前报价1.0340）。我们认为，这组货币对的交易定位行动目前正拖累美元兑加元的上涨势头，鉴于加拿大央行的相关评论以及央行对加元强势的担忧，目前这种局面可能暗示我们加元在短期内已经触底，预期将迎来修正走高。在美国市场也有不少数据即将释放，包括美国净资本流入数据，美国工业生产数据，美国密歇根消费者信心指数，以及企业盈利数据。即将释放盈利数据的企业有通用电气公司，美林证券，美国银行，和深陷困境的金融企业CIT集团有限公司。

Market Brief

GBP has continued to outperform this morning (GBPUSD 1.6355, EURGBP 0.9125) on a combination of chatter regarding M&A activity and rumours that the BoE will not be increasing QE in November. GBP-crosses have looked oversold for some time now, and this correction has brought us within reach of some key technical levels; the high so far in GBPUSD has been 1.6400, a break of 1.6468 opens up next target above 1.6700, meanwhile EURGBP’s pivotal support lies at 0.9070.

The Asian session was light in terms of significant data releases, however AUD was given a boost by hawkish rhetoric from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens that they cannot be “too timid” in raising rates; AUDUSD traded to a high of 0.9720 on the news, and after breaking up out of its rising wedge in the past few days and managing to hold above the upper trend line on the re-test, price action looks extremely bullish.

This morning’s data highlights will be Swiss Retail Sales, expected to increase 0.8% YoY in Aug (from 1.0% last month); a strong number is likely to increase the likelihood that we see USDCHF march onward towards parity (currently 1.0160), however EURCHF has so far remained wary of retesting intervention territory below 1.5130 and we expect the market to continue to respect this boundary given the conviction with which the SNB has defended it in the past few months.

Canadian CPI (Sep) is also due out today (exp. 0.1% MoM, 0.0% prior); contrary to the theme across other major pairs, USDCAD rallied yesterday and is marginally higher again today (currently 1.0340). We believe that positioning in this trade is now becoming a drag on further gains for CAD, and considering the comments from the BoC about their discomfort with the strength of the currency, this may indicate we have reached a bottom for the near-term and a further correction higher is due. The US session also sees the release of Net TIC Flows, Industrial Production and U. Mich Consumer Confidence, while the earnings focus turns to General Electric, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, and troubled financial firm CIT Group Inc.