来源：亚洲外汇网
今日汇评
昨天上午，美元看似又经历了一场痛苦的交易，继续疲软下行，这是因为美元指数和大多数主要货币对已经不断成功突破重要技术水平，对风险偏好性贸易的限制作用已经所剩无几。然而，尽管摩根大通发布的第三季度财报显示每股盈利82美分（市场的共识是盈利51美分）且全球股票指数在当天也几乎全面走高，美元指数在当天的大部分交易时段内仍位于75.44至75.69的区间内窄幅震荡。而昨天上午公布的第一个重要经济数据是英国国家统计局发布的英国8月失业率数据，意外升至7.9%，预期值是升至8.0%。该数据促使英镑兑美元从1.5945强劲反弹，靠近关键阻力为1.6040（成功触及高点1.6025），还推动欧元兑英镑回落至0.9300支撑位附近。第二个公布的重要经济数据是欧元区8月份工业生产数据，对市场的影响不大：8月环比上扬0.9%，预期值是环比上扬1.2%，但之前的两个月有所好转（7月份的该值为上涨0.2%；6月份的该值为下滑0.3%）。
昨日下午释放的重要经济数据是美国9月零售销售额数据，月比下滑1.5%，好于预期的月比下滑2.1%。该数据给市场带来的意外并不如上次那般深刻，因为此次商务部已将美国8月零售业销售收入从上次公布的环比增长2.7%修正为环比增长2.2%。紧随其后的就是联邦公开市场委员会的会议既要，如市场的预期，委员会将经济增长前景向上修正，但他们也重申，利率将在更长时期内保持极低水平，但对量化宽松政策是否应该继续的问题看法不一：一部分成员认为应当扩大量化宽松政策的规模，而另一部分成员则认为应该缩减量化宽松政策的规模。乐观的经济增长前景加上低利率的重申刺激纽约道琼斯指数突破10,000点，收于10015点，并最终将美元推向边缘。欧元兑美元上扬触及1.4967高点，澳元兑美元似乎已经突破上行阻力，收于0.9225，美元兑瑞郎继续其平稳行动（目前收于1.0120）。
在最后一轮提振中，黄金明显落后，再次测试1070美元每盎司的高点失败之后，回落至1065美元每盎司。原油价格不断寻找稳定价位，报价略低于76美元每桶，亚洲指数当天也表现强劲。在未来的交易日内，市场将释放的重点数据包括欧元区消费者物价指数和瑞士ZEW指数，纽约州制造业指数和费城联储制造业指数，以及包括高盛，花旗和西夫韦在内的企业第三季度盈利数据。
Market Brief
Yesterday morning the USD seemed poised for another brutal session of weakness as the DXY and most major currency pairs looked to have penetrated major technical levels, leaving very little barriers left to restrain the risk appetite trade. However despite JPMorgan reporting an estimate-busting EPS of 82c (consensus 51c) and global stock indices almost universally higher on the day, the DXY has managed to hold within a tight channel between 75.44-75.69 for most of the day. The first major item on the morning data schedule was UK ILO Unemployment Rate for Aug which surprisingly held firm at 7.9% vs. expectations of a rise to 8.0%. This prompted GBPUSD to rally strongly from 1.5945 towards the key resistance at 1.6040 (managing to touch a high of 1.6025), and pushed EURGBP back towards 0.9300 support. Next up we had Eurozone Industrial Production for Aug which was broadly neutral in its implications; the 0.9% gain MoM missed forecasts for a 1.2% rise, but there were compensating revisions to the month prior (0.2% from -0.3%).
The major afternoon release on the docket was US Retail Sales (Sep) which beat forecasts with a print of -1.5% MoM vs. -2.1% expected. The surprise was not as persuasive as first impressions might suggest, as last month’s cash-for-clunkers augmented figure of 2.7% in Aug was revised down to 2.2%. The FOMC followed later in the session, and as expected the committee revised up their forecasts for growth; however they also reiterated that rates would stay low for a long time and there was were mixed views about how the QE programme should be directed going forward; with one member looking for it to be increased and another looking for it to be scaled back. The sanguine view on the economic outlook coupled with the reassurance of low rates spurred the Dow Jones above the 10,000 mark to close at 10,015, and finally pushed the USD over the edge. EURUSD has since hit highs of 1.4967, AUDUSD looks to have broken upwards from its rising wedge to 0.9225, and USDCHF continues its march towards parity (1.0120 currently).
Gold is the notable laggard in this latest push, having re-tested highs at $1070 before paring back to $1065. Crude has continued to look firm just below $76, and Asian indices are also stronger on the day. Highlights in the coming sessions include Eurozone CPI and Swiss ZEW, before a raft of US figures in the afternoon including CPI, Empire State Manufacturing and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. The big earnings releases for the day include Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Safeway.
