ACM：美国铝业公司盈利报告提振风险偏好情绪 促使美元触底
来源：亚洲外汇网
今日汇评
昨日，美国铝业公司在美股收盘后宣布其第三财季实现了扭亏为盈的消息,紧接着有关分析人士也上调了对美国银行和富国银行第三财季的预期，美国股市因此走高。作为本周因为是第一个公布盈利数据而成为市场焦点的企业，美国铝业生产商美国铝业公司公布的财报，出乎市场的亏损意料，实现了自去年以来的首次季度盈利；这无疑让投资者感到振奋人心，因为第三季财报终于好于第二季财报且脱颖而出。美元抛售（目前位于本周低点水平，美元指数报76.05）提振大宗商品价格走高，如黄金价格连续第三个交易日上行，触及新的高点1054.60美元每盎司），而白银的价格也走高至17.89美元每盎司。
可以预见的是，受澳大利亚9月份失业率意外下滑至5.7%消息的影响，市场情绪好转，亚洲股市连续第三个交易日上行。此前市场预期该值将从8月份的5.8％升至6.0％；突然好转的市场情绪刺激澳元兑美元大幅上扬，创下14个月来的新高0.9033（目前为0.9015），还带动其他兑美元的一些主要货币走高，特别是纽元从中受惠不浅（兑美元报价0.7400），摆脱了新西兰财政部长比尔英格里希之前称当前的货币水平“不适当”给市场带来的担忧情绪。
当天的主要活动将是英国央行和欧洲央行的利率会议，尽管市场预期届时无任何议员会赞成更改当前的利率水平，但英镑投资者仍然会担心央行或将扩大量化宽松政策的规模，因为英镑兑美元的试探性经济复苏完全依赖于美元的疲弱（目前报价1.5990）。与此同时，欧元多头也应该谨慎对待来自欧洲央行记者招待会上对欧元强势的任何评论，包括特里谢本人在内的欧洲央行成员最近几周在媒体面前一再强调保持美元的强势以此来防止其它货币的过度波动的言辞；此外，欧洲央行成员对外汇市场的任何明示都将可能成为欧元兑美元反弹上扬的绊脚石。
市场即将释放的其它数据包括：瑞典工业生产指数、德国的工业生产指数、美国首次申请失业救济的人数以及美国批发库存数据。定于今日公布企业盈利报告的企业包括：万豪国际（预期值为0.127）和百事可乐（预期值为1.033），但最引人注目的财报将来自定于下周公布的大多数主要金融机构（包括：JP摩根、摩根士丹利、高盛、花旗集团）。
Market Brief
US equity markets were boosted higher yesterday after analyst upgrades for Bank of America and Wells Fargo, followed by earnings released from Alcoa after the close. As the first major earnings focus of the week, the aluminium producer managed to produce its first quarterly profit since last year, against consensus forecast for a loss; no doubt exciting investors that Q3 may outshine even Q2’s earnings. The sell-off in the USD (now around -week lows, DXY 76.05) helped commodities advance higher, as gold hit new highs for a third straight day $1054.60) and silver powers up to $17.89.
Predictably, Asian stocks continued to rise for a third day on the back of improved sentiment, supported by Australia's jobless rate unexpectedly dropping to 5.7% last month. Expectations had been for the Unemployment figure to rise to 6.0% after last month’s 5.8% reading; the surprise improvement spurred AUDUSD to new 14 month highs at 0.9033 (currently 0.9015), dragging other major currencies higher against USD with it. NZD in particular has benefitted (trading at 0.7400), shrugging off comments from NZ Finance Minister, Bill English, that the level of the currency was uncomfortable.
The key events of the day will be the BoE and ECB rate meetings; despite no expectations for a change in rate from either committee, GBP traders will be wary of any expansion in the QE programme, as GBPUSD’s tentative recovery has been wholly reliant on USD weakness thus far (currently 1.5990). Meanwhile EUR bulls should be cautious of any rhetoric on EUR strength in the ECB press conference; numerous members including Trichet himself have been on the wires in recent weeks to highlight their preference for a strong USD and aversion to excessive currency moves; and any explicit reference to the FX are likely to present a stumbling block for EURUSD’s rally.
The remaining data releases to expect include Swedish Industrial Production, German Industrial Production, US Initial Jobless Claims and Wholesale Inventories. The earnings schedule today includes Marriott International (exp: 0.127) and PepsiCo (exp: 1.033), but the biggest headline releases will come next week with most of the major financial institutions due (JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup).
