预期英国国内生产总值将不能提振英镑

今日汇评

昨日的外汇市场仍然清淡，只有德国9月消费者物价指数公布，月比下滑0.4%（预期值为上涨0.2％），但这样的数据并未令市场感到意外，因为本月欧元区公布的数据都不如预期，均有所下滑。较有影响的是欧洲央行行长特里谢周一下午的评论：美元强势对全球经济“极其重要”。随着风险偏好的逐步升温，欧元兑美元未能上涨，而是下跌30个基点，且在大部分交易时段里波幅高达100个基点（目前报价1.4630）。投资者的注意力现已转向仍在1.5100附近徘徊的欧元兑瑞郎这个货币对。我们预期瑞士央行干预瑞郎升值的决定将促使投资者在1.5100下方处大幅增加瑞郎多头。

昨日欧洲股市和美国股市收盘时均强劲走高，隔夜亚洲指数从周一的跌势中全线反弹。尽管风险偏好略有改善，且大宗商品价格走势大致持平或者说是温和上涨（黄金报价992美元每盎司，白银报价16.25美元每盎司），美元指数还是保持了稳定（76.85）。日本消费物价指数数据突出了日本2.2％通胀率的年比跌幅，该数据符合市场预期，且较为普通，对外汇市场的影响也较小。

今天的焦点是英国方面的数据，我们正在等待英国公布其第二季度国内生产总值终值、抵押贷款批准量、消费信贷额以及M4货币供应量。预期其国内生产总值将向上修正（季率上修至-0.6％，前值为-0.7％），与此同时，如果英国相关数据有所改善，必将提振英镑兑欧元走高，反弹上限应在1.6110（目前为1.5905），但我们认为存在数据意外下滑的风险，届时英镑将继续走软，而其他货币相对走高，且宽松的货币政策将退出市场。

UK Final GDP Unlikely To Be Sterling’s Salvation

Market Brief

It was a quiet day in the FX space yesterday, with German CPI releases forming the entirety of the data releases during our session. The overall reading came in at -0.4% M/M (vs. +0.2% expected) but came as little surprise to the market, as regional figures released earlier all posted lower than forecast changes on the month. More influential were comments from ECB’s Trichet in the afternoon who stated that a strong USD is ‘extremely important’. The 30bp dip lower in EURUSD failed to gain much traction as improved risk appetite gradually ground back the advantage, EURUSD was confined to a 100bp range for most of the day (currently 1.4630). Most focus was instead turned to EURCHF which continues to hover around the 1.5100 level. We are looking to add to longs below the figure, and hope to exploit SNB intervention to weaken the CHF around these levels.

After equities in Europe and the US ended strongly higher yesterday, overnight Asian indices rebounded across the board from Monday’s sell-off. The DXY has remained stable (76.85) despite the slight improvement in risk appetite, and commodities are largely flat or very modestly higher (gold $992, silver $16.25). Japanese CPI data highlighted national inflation is -2.2% Y/Y, but the figures were in line with forecasts and, as is common with Japanese data releases, had very little FX impact.

Today the spotlight is on the UK as we await the final Q2 GDP reading along with mortgage approvals, consumer credit, and M4 money supply. GDP is expected to be revised upwards (Q/Q -0.6% exp, -0.7% prior), and whilst improvements in the UK data may force a squeeze higher in GBPUSD, rallies should be capped under 1.6110 (currently 1.5905), and our bias is that downside surprises form the greater risk to GBP going forward as other major economies exit the recession and look to pull away from accommodative monetary policy.

Elsewhere, expect Eurozone Retail PMI (47.1 prior), Eurozone Consumer Confidence (-21 exp, -22 prior), and US Consumer Confidence - expected to post a small improvement in Sep to 57.0 from 54.1 last month.