二十国集团第三次金融峰会结果未能给外汇市场造成影响

今日汇评

周一的外汇市场静悄悄，只有日元的交易活动比较活跃。目前，亚洲股市走低，欧洲期货也开始跟随走低。然而，风险相关行业并未受到真正的影响。二十国集团第三次金融峰会在匹兹堡已经闭幕并释放了会议的最终结果。尽管与会领导人对货币的讨论有限，但其语气较以前积极，他们宣称为经济复苏做出的努力已经“见效”，继续支持经济活动在短期内复苏甚至直至经济完全复苏的刺激政策 “很明显已经拥有”,他们还指出，有关退出战略的可靠信息须准确的传达，以此来巩固市场信心。在货币政策方面，20国集团领导人表示希望“采取与货币稳定相一致的货币政策，该货币政策基于能反映经济基本面的市场导向型汇率而制定”。

德国总理默克尔上周末赢得大选胜利，我们认为该结果是提振欧元温和上涨的原因之一。这场胜利是压倒性的，连其执政伙伴自由民主党都支持他的连胜，为此默克尔的减税和劳动力市场管制计划将毫无阻碍地被推上议程。

市场分析有三个主要因素支持日元目前的强势表现：第一，风险偏好情绪降温，这归咎于近期美国公布的经济数据令人失望; 第二，日本出口商资金遣返潮; 第三，日本财政大臣藤井裕九有关日本政府不应干预外汇市场的重申。鉴于财政大臣藤井裕九的政府不应干预外汇市场以及美元兑日圆的近期举动“属正常情况”的评论，美元兑日圆在早盘中已经突破90至100区间的下端点，且其跌幅在进一步扩大。直至2010年的夏季到来之前，美联储不太可能采取加息政策，本年度美元兑日圆的走势仍将令人倍感沉重，日本的货币增长仍落后于美国，日本新政府看似致力于货币市场不干预政策。国际货币市场交易员持仓报告显示，本周日元多头头寸进一步增加，净多头头寸增至4.6万份，前一周为3.7万份。与此同时，瑞郎多头头寸进一步增至2.4万份。今日十国集团公布的经济数据有限，只有德国的消费者物价指数。预期除非有重大影响的数据释放（不太可能），否则交易形势依然清淡

European Session: G20 Fails to Move Markets

Market Brief

FX markets were quiet at the start of the week, with only the JPY seeing any real activity. Asian equity markets are currently trading lower and European futures are looking to follow. Risk appetite declined and with it risk correlated trades. The EURUSD traded down to 1.4600, while the AUDJPY slipped to 76.60. JPY witnessed some decent demand, pushing USDJPY briefly below 88.50. Commodities are basically were we left them on Friday, with crude wti at $65.57 and spot gold $989.65. The G20 final communiqué from Pittsburg didn’t provide any significant agreements. The tone seemed to be positive regarding the global economic recovery, as leaders declared efforts hard “worked” and recovery had “clearly taken hold.” In the realm of FX policy makers provided the vague words "undertake monetary policies consistent with price stability in the context of market oriented exchange rates that reflect underlying economic fundamentals." Not quite the solid decisive agreement leaders had promised earlier in the week.

In Germany Chancellor, Angela Merkel’s, election victory was briefly EUR positive but the news was quickly faded. The margin of victory was widen enough for Merkel to change coalition partners to pro-business Free Democrats, which would allow her to pursue an agenda of tax cuts and labor market deregulations.

Perhaps the biggest story in FX is the unrelenting strength of the JPY. We believe the Yen strength is supported by the decline in risk appetite. Finance Minister Fujii’s comments over the weekend, in which he reiterated that the government would not intervene in FX, and USDJPY moves as 'not abnormal' and finally repatriation flow from local exporters. IMM commitment of traders showed JPY longs were extended further over the week. Net JPY long positions were increased to 46k from the previous week's level of 37k. Today, G10 economic release will be limited to German and CPI figures. Barring any significant deviation (highly unlikely) trading should be subdued.