美元涨跌互现，黄金上涨，创6个月来的新高

今日汇评

尽管市场上释放了一系列的强劲经济数据和央行会议决定，但货币市场仍未能打破上周的交投区间，美元兑欧元以及美元兑瑞郎的交易范围仍基本不变，而澳元则成为周一最佳表现者，澳元兑美元上涨1％。黄金上涨，攀升至6个月来的新高。像往常一样，交易商一直在等待于周五公布的美国非农就业数据，但似乎他们的交易情况受该消息的影响较大。美元的波幅较宽，但交易的方向并不明朗，这主要是受就业数据和失业率数据的影响，美国8月非农就业人口减少21.6万,略低于预期值减少22.5万，而8月失业率增至9.7%,创下26年来新高。波动率指数作为衡量未来股票市场价格波动程度的方法，被认为是华尔街的恐惧指标而被市场熟知，周一该指数一度攀升至29.57的高点，但收盘时走低报25.26。 周末闭幕的20国集团财政部长和央行行长会议的重点是大家一致认为，虽然全球经济出现了好转趋势，但还必须继续实施财政和货币刺激政策，才能确保经济增长的可持续性。资本市场对此已做好了充足的准备，因此我们也不用希望外汇市场对此会做出多大的反应。

自美国公布周五非农就业数据之后，欧元兑兑美元下跌，但终因股市的反弹在收盘之际实现走高。欧洲央行宣布将再融资利率保持在1％的水平不变，同时将经济预测小幅向上修正。欧洲央行此次的利率决定似乎暗示央行暂时不会考虑退出战略，也就是说，即使在近期内宣布退出战略，但利率仍将在很长一段时间内保持低水平。

英国8月制造业采购经理人指数为49.7，低于预期，而8月服务业采购经理人指数为54.1,高于预期的53.9，7月汽车销售同比增长6％，这些利好数据推动英镑兑美元上涨0.7％。出于对英国经济前景的担忧以及对英国央行决定近期宣布的扩大量化宽松政策规模的决定的回应，英镑在今日的早盘中受压。让我们感到更为担忧的事情是：市场上只有极少的迹象表明银行个人客户或企业客户的贷款业务增多，也就是说各大银行仍靠英国央行的输血度日，这给英国的经济造成了更多的压力。

澳元是今日货币市场中表现最好的，主要是受以下消息的支撑，即国际货币基金组织已宣布全球经济正在摆脱衰退，并猜测澳大利亚央行将很可能是截止今年年底第一个宣布提高利率的央行。除此之外，受媒体有关中国主权财富基金正在抛售部分美元储备而买进黄金的报道，黄金价格大幅上升至997.65美元每盎司。黄金显示出将长期继续上扬的迹象，我们预期金价将测试1033.9美元每盎司的高点，突破该水平将推动贵金属进一步走高至1100至1200美元每盎司的水平区间。

今日美国因劳动节而休市一天，致使外汇市场本周的开盘略显清淡。在本周晚些时候，我们将有三大中央银行召开会议，即新西兰央行，英国央行以及加拿大央行。预期三家银行都将宣布继续维持当前利率不变，因此市场将重点关注央行对经济前景和经济刺激计划的相关描述。周三欧佩克成员国将在维也纳举行会议，我认为此次会议的重点将是维持油价高于60美元每桶，但又要保证调高的价格不会抑制市场对石油的需求。今天的经济数据较少，主要是欧元区的Sentix投资者信心指数，预计从-17.0上升至-13.7，该预测值将有助于欧元的继续走高。

European Session: USD Lower as Risk Appetite Firms

Market Brief

Despite strong economic data releases and central banks meetings, the currency market was unable to break its last week trading range with USD unchanged against the EUR and CHF, while AUD being the best performer of the week gaining 1% against the Dollar, supported by Gold which climbed to a 6 months high. Traders as usual have been waiting for the release of US nonfarm payrolls on Friday, but it seems they were unable to trade the news. A high volatility was seen, but no clear direction for the Dollar as nonfarm play rolls contracted by -216K jobs, slightly below the -220 expected, while unemployment rate rose more than expected to 26 years highs at 9.7%. VIX index, a measure of stock-market volatility known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, climbed to as high as 29.57, but closed the week at 25.26.

The EUR traded lower against the Dollar after the release of US NFP, but managed to end the day higher as stocks rebounded. The ECB announced to keep its refinancing rate unchanged at 1%, while slightly revised up economic forecasts. The ECB seemed in its meeting to be signaling that rate policy does not include consideration about exit strategy, meaning that even though exit strategy could be announced soon, rates would remain low for long period of time.

The GBP appreciated 0.7% against the USD. UK PMI manufacturing index came below expectations at 49.7, while PMI services rose strongly to 54.1 above expectations at 53.9. Auto sales rose by 6% in July. The pound was pressured earlier in the week on concerns about the outlook for the UK economy and in response to the BOE’s recent decision to expand quantitative easing. What’s concerning me more is there are just little signs of an increase in bank lending consumer or companies, meaning that banks are keeping the money pumped by BOE, which could put more pressure on the economy.

The AUD was the best performed among major currencies, supported by IMF which announced global economy is emerging from downturn, and speculations that RBA would be the first to increase rates, probably by the end of the year. In addition to that Gold prices surged sharply topping at $997.65, supported by a report mentioning that sovereign wealth fund of China is selling some of China’s USD reserve for gold. The Gold is indicating that long term up trend might continue and we’re looking forward for a test of $1033.9 highs and a break above here could send the precious metal higher towards $1100-$1200 levels.

This week would possibly start slow as today is a Labor Day holiday in US and the US market is closed. Later this week, we’ll have 3 central banks meetings, Reserve bank of New Zealand, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada. All are anticipated to keep rates unchanged, but focus will be on economic outlook and stimulus programs. On Wednesday OPEC members will be meeting in Vienna, and I believe their concern is to keep oil prices above $60 per barrel, not so much higher not to curb demand. Today’s economic calendar is light, and focus would be on Euro Zone Sentix Investor confidence which is anticipated to rise from -17.0 to -13.7, where a reading above the forecasted could help the EUR continue its bullish momentum.