零售销售额数据好于预期，美国股市上涨，美元继续疲软

今日汇评

美国连锁店零售销售额数据好于预期，中国股市反弹幅度创6个月来的最大，这些消息推动美国股市结束了为期4天的下挫局势，美元兑其他主要货币继续疲软。连锁零售商好市多收盘大涨8.6％，服装零售商Gap收盘上涨7.6％，而美国铝业公司和卡特彼勒推动道琼斯指数走高，上涨综指上扬4.8%。 在美国，尽管首次申请失业救济的人数和非制造业综合数据都小幅走高，但受中国股市和零售销售额上扬的利好数据的刺激，美国股市实现上扬。当周美国首次申请失业救济人数减少至57万人，但申请失业救济的总人数已经增长至624.3万，该项数据直接推动了美元的全面走高。 欧洲央行宣布保持其利率在1％的水平不变，央行行长特里谢称，欧元区当前利率水平适度，并将贯穿整个2009年。还补充说，欧元区经济的恢复是一个缓慢的过程,目前还不是撤回经济刺激计划的时候；预计2010年欧元区国内生产总值将增长0.3％，而先前的预期是收缩0.2％，而2009年的平均通货膨胀率为0.4％，而2010年为1.2%，仍低于目标通货膨胀率2%。自特里谢的言论发表后，欧元下跌至1.4237，而英镑下跌至1.6305，回吐了早盘中的部分涨幅。 贵金属价格上扬，美元疲软。黄金上涨至997.70美元每盎司的高点，而白银上涨至16.15美元每盎司的高点，为13个月以来的最高价格水平。金价将继续受到美元疲软的支持，可能很快就会突破1000美元每盎司的关口。因黄金在盘中早些时候突破了980美元每盎司的技术阻力位水平，致使投资者将关注的焦点从疲弱的美元转向贵金属的走向。 美国非农就业数据是当天最重要的数据，预期8月失业人数有所减少，这表明经济有所复苏，而预期的失业率将攀升至9.5%。在就业数据尚未公布之前，美元持续走弱。美元汇价密切关注于格林尼治标准时间1230公布的数据，因为该数据可以帮助确定经济的状况，同时也有助于金属价格的上涨。

European Session: Waiting on NFP

Market Brief

The US Dollar continued its weakness against the majors as US stocks ended their 4 day losing streak as Chain store sales exceeded forecast and Chinese equities rallied the most in six months. Chain stores such as Costco rallied 8.6%, Gap rallied 7.6% while Alcoa and Caterpillar helped move the Dow Jones index higher as the Shanghai Composite Index rallied 4.8%.

Despite higher Jobless Claims from the US as well as minor increase in the Non-Manufacturing Composite data, the stocks moved up in the US bouyed by the Chinese stock market and higher retail sales. Initial Jobless Claims data showed that 570,000 claims were made for the current week while the total claims added to 6.243 million which briefly moved the US Dollar higher across the board.

European Central Bank (ECB) kept its rates unchanged at 1% and President Trichet added that the rates are appropriate and would be maintained throughout 2009 also adding that the recovery would be slow and that there are no immediate signs of withdrawal from the stimulus measures. He also added that the Euro Zone GDP will grow 0.2% in 2010 against previous expectation of a contraction of 0.3% while the inflation would average at 0.4% in 2009 and 1.2% in 2010 while still remaining below the target inflation rate of 2%. The Euro fell against the US Dollar to 1.4237 after Trichet’s remarks while the Pound fell to 1.6305 erasing the gains earlier in the morning session.

Gold rallied to a high of $997.70 while Silver rallied to a 13 month high to $16.15 as a weaker Dollar spurred the rally in the metals. Gold will continue to be supported by a weaker US Dollar and may soon cross the $1000 level as investors shift towards the metals backed by the weakening in the US Dollar as the Gold crossed the technical resistance level of $980 earlier in the trading session.

The US Non-Farm Payrolls data would be the most important data for the day as lesser jobs are expected to be lost for the month of August giving signs of added recovery while the unemployment rate is expected to climb to 9.5%. The Dollar has been weakening ahead of the Payrolls data and the US Dollar would have to be closely monitored ahead of the data at 1230 GMT which could help determine the state of the economy while also giving importance to the rising metal prices.