上证综指反弹，市场等待欧洲央行会议决定

今日汇评

隔夜市场交投清淡，这主要是因为市场都在等待周四的欧洲央行的政策决定以及非农就业数据的公布。亚洲市场交易冷清，股市收盘曲线相对平滑，但上证综指反弹飘红，上扬4.37％，为风险偏好清晰释放积极信号。黄金昨日走势强劲，一度上扬至980.50美元每盎司，之后上扬受阻。欧元兑美元的交易区间为1.4190至1.4294，美元兑日元的交易区间为91.95-92.23。美国释放的就业数据和工厂订单数据差于预期，引发市场对经济依然承受重压而产生担忧，致使股市连续第四个交易日下跌，美元走低。日经指数连续第二天下滑，刺激避险货币的需求走高；此外，新政府暗示不用担忧日元的升值，还表示不会干预外汇市场。这些因素导致日元兑其他货币均走高，兑美元和欧元收盘创7周以来的高点。

澳大利亚第二季度国内生产总值较第一季度和上年同期均增长0.6%，高于预期值以及第一季度季比增幅0.4％（不过，澳元仍然是10国集团货币中最为强劲的一种货币），受该项强劲数据的影响，澳元兑美元和日元均走高。今天加拿大元依然疲弱，因为原油价格仍然低于每桶70美元的水平。英镑的支撑位水平位于1.61，反弹超过150点，收盘报价1.6264。8月联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要无重大意外内容。正同联邦公开市场委员会的声明一样，8月会议纪要对经济和市场的预期较7月的会议纪要略显乐观。纪要指出美联储预计经济在本年第二季度已经缓慢复苏，到2010年将实现复苏后的增长。与此同时，ADP预计美国1月份私人部门就业人数减少52.2万人，略差与市场预期。

今天澳大利亚公布了7月贸易赤字数据，扩大至15.6亿澳元，超出市场预期值，成为2008年5月以来最严重赤字额。令人鼓舞的是，出口仅下降1.4％，这主要是因为商品价格疲软，销售额显示弹性。进口全面走高，我们的经济学家指出，这可能表明澳大利亚未来的国内需求将有所改善。总的来说，亚洲市场动静较小，大多数主要货币的外汇收盘价接近开盘价，而投资者将重点转向今天的欧洲零售销售额数据和欧洲央行的会议纪要内容。

市场预期欧洲央行将宣布再融资利率保持在1％不变，但重点将是央行决定公布后的那45分钟的新闻发布会。投资者主要从两方面来看这次议息会议。首先，是否有信号显示短期内或将加息；其次，国内生产总值预期是否较6月份公布的数据有所上调。我个人认为央行不会释放在本年度加息的信号，而是将利率维持在1％，且至少持续到2010年第一季度。关于国内生产总值的预测，有可能向上修正，但通胀前景带来的压力可能会持续一段时间。

我们预期瑞士央行的官方汇率不会发生变化，但极有可能上调其国内生产总值预期，尤其是2010年的。我们还认为通货膨胀预期也会有一定的上调。不过，我们认为为了适应在2010年第二季度的提早升息而进行利率政策的改变，这具有一定的外部风险。市场预期在未来的12个月内，央行将累计加息90个基点。

European Session: Waiting on the ECB

Market Brief

The Greenback fell yesterday despite stocks continued falling for the fourth consecutive day on concerns that economy still under big pressure, as reports from U.S. on job losses and factory orders came worse than expected. The Yen was higher against most major currencies closing almost on a seven weeks high against the dollar and euro, as Nikkei Index dropped for a second day, boosting demand for the safe haven currency, and could be also supported by indication the new government would not worry on appreciating yen, and would not intervene in currency markets.

The Aussie gained against the Dollar and Yen, supported by GDP report, which showed economic growth for Q2 came higher than expected at 0.6% QoQ from 0.4% in Q1. Canadian Dollar still weak as crude oil prices remained below $70 per barrel. The Pound was able to find support at 1.61 levels, to rally more than 150 pips closing at 1.6264.

Australia released their trade balance report today, coming at -1.56 B as exports decreased and imports increased. Exports declined by 1% whereas imports increased by 4% with oil imports jumping 21%. Overall the Asian session is seeing little movements in the market, with most major currencies just trading close to their opening, while focus turns today into European Retail Sales and ECB minutes.

ECB will keep its refinancing rate unchanged at 1%, but focus will be on the press conference 45 min after the decision. Investors are mainly looking into two aspects from the meeting. First, would there be any signal of increasing the interest rate in the near term, and second whether GDP forecast had been upgraded from June. I don’t believe the ECB will even signal any increase in rates for 2009 and I believe it will remain at 1% at least till Q1 2010. Regarding the GDP forecast could be revised upward, while inflation outlook may remain subdue for some time.