每日外汇评论：风险资产摇摇欲坠

今日汇评

尽管美国昨日释放了一系列的强劲数据，但股市并没有因此上涨，相反，各个部门都再次释放出担忧情绪，这表明经济和财政状况的好转势头仍然没有稳住阵脚，我们认为市场将会大幅削减已经有所动摇的风险资产。分析家看重的重要指标之一中国上证综指暴跌（8月沪指下跌幅度达20%）：一方面，信贷紧缩政策抑制增长（货币政策较为温和）；另一方面，在事实上，大量投资项目涌进股票市场，扭曲了股市的价格行动。如果说这两点都是暴跌的原因，那么股市的修正将大受欢迎。在澳大利亚，国内生产总值数据给澳洲联储带来了较多的压力，其国内生产总值数据意外上扬。第二季度国内生产总值季率上升0.6%,年率上升0.6， 而市场预期的是季率上升2%，年率上升0.2%，这些数据表明澳大利亚的经济放缓形势已趋温和。在利率方面，澳大利亚释放大量利好经济数据暗示现在是联储加息的大好时光。伴随着普遍的抛售风险，纽元也蒙受压力。但是，也有一些利好的消息刺激该货币，该利好消息就是恒天然在线乳制品的拍卖结果，价格大幅上涨24％。上个月的拍卖结果是价格上涨26%。新西兰是世界上最大的乳制品出口国，虽然目前这些价格上涨信息被市场给广泛忽视，但它的影响必将在下周的央行货币政策中有所体现。

今日美国美联储公布了8月联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要，纪要内容很可能会提供放缓政策的进一步消息，但不会扩大3000亿美元的国债收购计划的规模。联邦公开市场委员会声明指出，美联储决定将放缓国债收购步伐，“促进市场平稳过渡”，但市场更感兴趣的是有关美联储结束国债收购计划的潜在讨论。此外还对围绕抵押贷款支持证券购买计划的相关讨论颇为关注；美联储已经完成了计划中的1.25万亿美元其中的7670亿美元的收购。

欧元兑美元

1.4380再次证实了其坚不可摧的地位，目前这组货币对同其它货币对一样纷纷进入窄幅波动区间。最后一个极有可能上扬的通道目前位于1.14160， 因此预期美元在接下来的两天内必将在此处有一个反弹突破。跌破1.4160表明欧元继续疲弱，兑美元将继续走低，而上扬突破1.4380 和1.4445则暗示市场上的风险偏好情绪已经恢复。

美元兑日元

因美国股市开始显示做多行情，在新的压力下，美元兑日元已经是三周以来的第二次下跌探底。交易趋势线已从93.37小幅下降至93.00/10，我们预期在该水平上将出现更多做空信号。目前最后一个上扬通道将位于略低于92.30/40的水平，突破93.50将否定下滑趋势。

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European Session: Stocks Still Feel Heavy

Market Brief

Safe haven currencies turned bullish yesterday as risk aversion again shadowed over the markets despite good data released from Asia, Europe, and the U.S. Traders strongly believe that markets have run up too much faster than economic fundamentals, and further correction might continue. The VIX Index a barometer of risk aversion which measures stock market volatility and known as Wall’s Street’s fear gauge, rose 12% to 29.23, the most since July 13. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 2.2% and closed below 1,000 psychological support level at 998.04. Dow Jones also fell 2% closing at 9,310.60. Crude Oil fell $1.91 closing at $68.05.

The Aussie fell yesterday pressured by commodity prices drop, and less hawkish statement from Bank of Australia which maintained its key interest rate at 3.00%, sending the Aussie to one week low against the Dollar. Traders were awaiting a signal of rate hike, which was not provided by the central bank. AUS/USD pair was able to recover some of its losses as GDP expanded more than expected by 0.6% for Q2.

The Dollar index gained 0.56 points to 78.74, and expected to continue higher if stocks continued to decline. US ISM manufacturing index rose more than expected to 52.9 in Aug, indicating the manufacturing sector expanded for the first time since 2008, while US pending home sales climbed more than expected by 3.2% in July. Unemployment in Europe rose to 9.5% in July along with expectations, being the highest level since May 1999, while Germany’s unemployment unexpectedly declined by 1,000 Jobs where retails sales increased 0.7% MoM. Switzerland’s GDP declined a less than expected 0.3% QoQ. UK’s manufacturing index came below expectations at 49.7 in Aug. Finally from China, PMI increased 54.0 in Aug giving an opposite outlook of equity market, indicating China’s manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace since 16 months.

Focus today will turn on GDP results in Euro Zone and PMI construction from the UK. While the U.S. will release its ADP employment change and FOMC meeting minutes.