每日外汇评论：全球股票普降，高收益资产需求减少

今日汇评

周一美元继续涨跌互现态势，这主要是因为：全球股市普降，刺激投资者减持高收益资产，增持日圆避险货币。伴随着全球股市普降的大形势，中国上证综指下滑幅度达6.7%，创2008年6月以来的最大跌幅。悲观情绪在美国市场继续弥漫，标准普尔500指数下跌0.8％，在经济复苏之际，投资者察觉到美国股票市场的交投情况仍旧清淡。

日本民主党以压倒性优势击败自由民主党,市场推测新政府也许能带领日本恢复其世界最大经济体之一的地位，致使日圆成为昨日获利最大的币种，日圆兑其他主要货币均走强，兑美元的上涨幅度更是创7周以来的最大涨幅。相对来说，民主党的重心更偏向消费者，这或将改变日本央行的财政政策，因为他们对日元的升值担忧有所减少。

周一油价跌破每桶70美元，致使加元兑美元成为周一跌幅最大的币种。加拿大公布的第二季度国内生产总值数据显示年比萎缩3.4%，推动美元/加元走高至1.1090。在风险规避情绪控制着市场的情况下，欧元兑美元走强，上扬至1.4367。美国芝加哥8月份采购经理人指数高于预期，为50.0，该利好数据也刺激欧元兑美元走高。英国房屋跟踪报告显示，英国房价自2007年以来首次出现上涨，该消息推动英镑温和走高。澳大利亚央行今日公布的利率决定与预期利率相一致，维持3％的水平不变，但我们仍在等待更多细节，看是否存在央行于不久的将来会上调利率的任何信号。在央行公布利率决定之前，澳元小幅上涨。

正如市场的广泛预期，澳洲联储今日宣布维持基准利率在3.0%不变。其随后的新闻发布会上的澳洲联储主席的证词表明央行倾向紧缩政策，但并没有暗示下个月或将上调利率的决定。我们现在期待央行将完全摆脱目前的“紧急的”3％的现金利率，并将利率上调至更加“正常的”4％的水平，而不是像市场原先预测的那样，要等到2010年年底才能实施利率的上调政策。商业投资前景和全球经济的改善是市场下调澳大利亚重大经济下行风险的重要催化剂。在短期内，我们期望澳元会因当前的利率水平而有所疲弱。中国经济正在温和增长，定于明天公布其国内生产总值数据。

在瑞士，第二季度国内生产总值下降0.3％，远高于预期-1.0。然而，这并不能改变瑞士央行当前的前景。尽管欧元区消费者物价指数估计值略好于预期，年比下滑0.2％，而市场预期是年比下滑0.3%, 较前值0.7％略有好转。上周德国消费者物价指数意外上扬，远强于市场预期值，该消息表明欧元区最大的经济体德国的通货紧缩压力已经开始减弱。

今天，欧元区最大的经济体德国将公布其8月份的失业数据，预计该值将增长到8.4％，较上月增长0.1%；欧元区也即将释放其7月份的失业率数据，预计该值将从6月的9.4&增长至9.5％；美国即将释放其ISM制造业指数，预计将高于50，此外，美国待售房屋销售数据预计将增长1.6％。

Global Drop in Equities Reduced Demand for Higher-Yielding Assets

Market Brief

The Loonie fell the most against the U.S dollar as oil prices fell below $70, and the release of GDP showed a contraction of 3.4% in the economy for Q2 2009 sending the USD/CAD to 1.1090 high. The Euro was strong considering the risk aversion which was controlling the markets, rising to 1.4367 against the Dollar. The U.S. positive data helped in lifting the Euro as Chicago PMI rose more than expected to 50.0 in August. Sterling gained modestly as a Home track report showed UK home prices rose for the first time since 2007, but remained trading in a range.

The RBA today left the cash rate unchanged at 3.0%, as was universally widely expected. The tone of the accompanying statement was largely unchanged (optimistic) without signaling an impending rise. The overall cautious tone was not what the AUD bulls were looking for and AUD came under selling pressure. In the short term we expect AUD weakness on tempered interest rate expectations, Chinas moderating growth, and tomorrow GDP figures.

Today Germany the biggest economy in the Euro Zone will release its unemployment data which is forecasted to come out at 8.4% in Aug a 0.1% increase than a month earlier. The Euro Zone will also be releasing its unemployment rate, expected to rise to 9.5% in July from 9.4% in June. From US, ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to have a reading above 50, and pending home sales are expected to rise by 1.6%.