每日外汇评论：市场试图寻找方向

今日汇评

美元兑其他主要货币结束了过去一周的区间震荡内涨跌互现的交易形势：美元兑澳元、新西兰元以及日元走低，但美元兑加元和英镑走高，英镑是这些主要货币中表现最为疲弱的一种币种，兑美元下滑1.4%，而欧元和瑞郎兑美元的汇价几乎没变，仅分别下滑0.1％和0.2％。原油于本周早些时候一度达到75美元每桶，之后还是回落到70美元每桶上方的水平，与此同时，美国股市收盘创2009年以来的最高水平，标准普尔500指数上涨0.3％，至1,028.93。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨0.4％，至9,544.20，纳斯达克指数上升0.4％，至2,028.77。

上周，从欧元区的经济、消费、服务以及工业部门的相关数据来看，经济信心有所回升。在德国，欧元区IFO商业景气指数上升至90.5，GFK消费者信心指数上升至3.7。与此同时，英国第二季度国内生产总值比上一季度略有上扬，季比收缩0.7％。日本失业率上升数据超过预期，升至5.7％。相对利好的数据来自美国，第二季度国内生产总值修正后显示季比萎缩1.0%，而预期值是收缩1.4％；7月份耐用品订单比上月增加了4.9%,远远超过市场预期值。7月新屋销售数据攀升至43.3万幢。

我们预计，本周即将公布的大量的经济数据将还是反映全球经济复苏主题。这对风险相关货币如美元和日元来说将是好消息。对美元来说，主要事件风险有：周三的美联储会议分钟纪要，周四的ISM非制造业指数，预计将上升至11个月来的高点48.0，以及周五的非农业就业数据，预计将是一年中该项统计降幅最小的数据。

除了美国的风险事件，其他还有两大央行会议，即欧洲央行和澳洲联储。预计两家银行将分别维持利率在1％和3％的水平不变。对欧洲央行关注的重点将放在特里谢对最近的经济数据以及央行债券回购计划的相关评论上。对澳洲联储关注的重点将放在市场上是否存在任何有关货币放松政策已经结束的肯定论断以及澳洲联储是否将是第一个撤出货币放松政策的央行。

上周末，日本公布了众院大选，最大在野党民主党在大选中获得众院总数480议席中的308席，取得压倒性的胜利。今天上午，美元兑日元开盘走低，这反映出市场对新政府普遍存有乐观情绪，但这次选举的结果与媒体民调早前报道的结果是一致的，而早前的报道已经大幅影响过市场定价行动。因此，我们预期大选结果对日元的积极影响将是短暂的。

有趣的是，美元指数每日回报率和摩根士丹利资本国际股市指数每日回报率之间的30天相关性自上周中段开始显著回升。这表明，在全球外汇市场的风险情绪或将下降，经济增长差异的重要性日益凸显。这种市场驱动的转变对外汇交易商来说将至关重要的信息（特别是今天出现上证综指遭遇抛售的行情）。

European Session: Markets Trying to Find a Direction

Market Brief

The Greenback ended the past week mixed against major currencies trading in a range bound, lower against the Aussie, Kiwi and Yen but higher against Lonnie and Cable which was the weakest currency versus majors loosing 1.4% against the dollar, while Euro & Swiss franc was almost unchanged , falling 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. Crude Oil remained trading above $70 per barrel after reaching $75 earlier in the week, meanwhile U.S. stocks closed at its highest levels in 2009 with Standard and Poor’s 500 Index advancing 0.3% to 1,028.93. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.4% to 9,544.20, and Nasdaq increased by 0.4% to 2,028.77.

Economic data released last week is giving more evidence of economic recovery. From the Euro Zone, Confidence rose in economic, consumer, services and industrial sectors. In Germany the biggest economy in the Euro Zone IFO business climate rose to 90.5, Gfk consumer confidence rose to 3.7. Meanwhile UK second quarter GDP was revised slightly upwards QoQ to shrink by 0.7%. Japanese unemployment rose more the expected to 5.7%. The better news came from the U.S. with second quarter GDP left unrevised at -1.0% where expectations were to contract further by 1.4%. Durable goods rose 4.9% in July which was much higher than expected, and new home sales rose to 433,000 in July.

This week is expected to be more exiting and probably a break out from the recent ranges could be seen. The main event risk for the US Dollar is on Wednesday, where the Fed’s last meeting minutes will be released. On Thursday the ISM non-manufacturing is expected to rise to 11 months high of 48.0 in Aug and Friday could be volatile with the release of the Non Farm Payrolls which is expected to have its smallest drop in a year.

Away from the US, we have two central banks meetings, the ECB and RBA. Both banks are expected to keep rates unchanged at 1% and 3%. From ECB focus will be on Trichet’s comments on recent economic data and ECB’s covered bond purchase program. RBA Focus will be on any affirmation on markets view that the easing cycle is already over and RBA could be the first to remove policy accommodations.